“There are rumors about any governor that he will soon cease to be governor. “There are rumors about any governor that he will soon cease to be governor. The speaker was not a contractual figure.
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As before, we are not talking about well-known politicians and statesmen, but about political strategists and political advisers - people who "make" politicians the way we see them, create parties and help them win elections, and are also ideologists and organizers of political campaigns and "popular" actions. In 2012, on the eve of a new electoral cycle, which promises to be interesting due to the return of direct elections of governors and the emergence of new parties, we are continuing our project.
The work on the rating of political strategists continued throughout 2011 and the first quarter of 2012, and was carried out by our journalists, experts and regional correspondents. We decided to time the release of our rating to coincide with the adoption of the law on the election of governors. Today we present the result of our research, on the basis of which it is possible to understand who exactly and how effectively “rules” the elections in Russia.
Research methodology: Traditionally, 100 active politicians, deputies, political strategists, and journalists took part in the survey. The poll participants were asked to name the "top twenty political strategists" themselves. Thus, depending on the frequency of mentioning certain names, this rating was compiled. The respondents were warned that they can only name the carriers of "political technological competence", that is, people who are actually experts in the field of public opinion formation, organizers of election and political campaigns.
President and Prime Minister of Russia
Pure politicians (S. Naryshkin, V. Matvienko, etc.)
Politicians-ideologists (for example, G. Zyuganov, V. Zhirinovsky, S. Mironov, N. Levichev, etc.)
Political scientists-experts (for example, I. Bunin, D. Orlov, S. Markov, M. Leontiev, M. Shevchenko, etc.)
Sociologists (for example, V. Fedorov, A. Oslon, etc.)
Pure officials, party functionaries, leaders of factions (for example, S. Ivanov, I. Sechin, V. Surkov, S. Neverov, A. Vorobyov, etc.)
Journalists and media leaders (K. Ernst, A. Gabrelyanov, A. Pimanov, etc.)
Rating
1.Vyacheslav Volodin100 mentions. "Newbie" in our rating, which immediately took the 1st place. Which is natural. As First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, now Volodin is the curator and demiurge of all domestic policy Russia. It is he who is credited with the idea of \u200b\u200bcreating the All-Russian The Popular Front”, Which, despite the skepticism of a part of the expert community and the media, demonstrated its effectiveness. The proof of this is the high result of V. Putin at the presidential elections in March this year.
2.Dmitry Peskov
98 mentions. Press Secretary of the Prime Minister of Russia, who now becomes Press Secretary of the President. Since the moment of the previous rating, he has become a public figure, playing an important role in shaping the image of the President-elect and keeping high rating... Peskov is not only the inspirer, organizer and commentator of Putin's numerous PR campaigns, he is a skillful manipulator of public opinion.
3. Natalia Timakova
95 mentions. Press secretary of the former President of Russia and, apparently, the next Prime Minister. Its main merit is that Dmitry Medvedev has taught the authorities to be present on the Internet. It is she who is responsible for the emergence of new formats of communication between Dmitry Medvedev and the people (blogs, twitter, etc.), which have already become fashionable among the entire political elite. Timakova was also the soul of all the "Promedvedev forces", the ideologist of the key statements and initiatives of the ex-President. “Freedom is better than lack of freedom” will be remembered for a long time. Due to the fact that D. Medvedev will head " United Russia”, It can be expected that N. Timakova will be among the authors of the ideology of the renewed party.
4. Konstantin Kostin
90 mentions. Head of the Internal Policy Department of the Presidential Administration. A man from the team of the former curator and ideologist of domestic policy V. Surkov, who managed not only to maintain his position, but also to move up the career ladder.
5. Radiy Khabirov
87 mentions. Deputy Head of the Department of Internal Policy of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, curator of all political parties in Russia, who now, with the advent of the new law on political parties, will have more work.
6.Sergey Zheleznyak
79 mentions. First Deputy Secretary of the Presidium of the General Council of United Russia. In past general director News Outdoor Russia, the largest operator in the outdoor advertising market in the country. Today, the main ideologist and propagandist of United Russia. The person, thanks to whose activity the party fights off numerous critics. Under his supervision, the concept of modernizing the party is being prepared.
7. Alexey Chesnakov
76 mentions. In the past, the head of the public council at the General Council of United Russia, a former high-ranking kremlin curator of all media... Now he is the head of the scientific council of the Center for Current Politics. Continues to actively form public opinion in favor of the ruling party in public space.
8. Evgeny Minchenko
75 mentions. It has grown significantly in the ranking over a year and a half. Chapter " International Institute political expertise ". Political strategist and lobbyist, publishes the Political Survival Rating of Governors. One of the most cited and sought after experts and practicing political consultants.
9. Ilya Mitkin (Spokoinov)
72 mentions. An actively working political strategist - a practitioner who works with the leadership of the party in power. Author of many regional victories for United Russia.
10 Konstantin Kalachev
69 mentions. In the 90s, the founder of the Party of Beer Lovers, later one of the most famous political consultants of the 90s, the vice-mayor of Volgograd, as an employee of the Central Executive Committee of United Russia, was one of the main political strategists of the party. Now he is the head of the “Political Expert Group”, the author of the “Index of Governor Selectivity”.
11.Oleg Mikheev
66 mentions. The chief political strategist of A Just Russia, whose result in the Duma elections in December 2011 exceeded expectations. Author of high-profile party campaigns in a number of regions. A native of Volgograd. Deputy of the State Duma.
12. Stanislav Belkovsky
63 mentions. President of the Institute for National Strategy. For many years - the main ideologist and political strategist of the anti-Putin opposition.
13. Gleb Pavlovsky
62 mentions. He became famous as the President of the Foundation for Effective Politics, which for many years has represented the interests of the Presidential Administration. Author and executor of many Kremlin projects, which gradually lost its influence and went over to the opposition.
14. Evgeny Suchkov
59 mentions. Director of the Institute of Electoral Technologies, co-author of the book "Political Technologies", which has become a desktop for many novice political strategists. The author of the high-profile victories of the ruling party and its representatives in Astrakhan in last years.
15. Modest Kolerov
57 mentions. Owner and director of the Regnum news agency. In the past, the head of the department for interregional and cultural relations of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation. Operator of Russian interests in neighboring countries.
16.Oleg Matveychev
56 mentions. Former adviser to the internal policy department of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, former deputy governors of the Vologda and Volgograd regions. Author of popular books on political consulting and political science. How a popular blogger became famous throughout the Internet with a call "Wind opposition on the tracks"... Now professor High school economy.
17. Dmitry Gusev
55 mentions. Founder and leader of the Baxter Group, an organization that is one of the market leaders in receiving election orders.
18. Grigory Kazankov
53 mentions. Former member of the legendary Y. Rusova team. Former adviser to the governor of the Vologda region, who launched an all-Russian campaign to promote Santa Claus from Veliky Ustyug. Actively practicing political strategist, mainly working with United Russia
19.Andrey Gnatyuk
52 mentions. President of the Group-IMA holding. Former contractor for most PR projects former mayor of the capital Yuri Luzhkov... The organizer of the main all-Russian PR prize is the Silver Archer. Legend of political technologies of the 90s.
20.Andrey Bogdanov
51 mentions. Political strategist. Was a candidate for President of the Russian Federation. "He took away" the Right Cause of Mikhail Prokhorov... Now he is busy with the creation and registration of numerous parties.
The following political strategists also scored from 40 to 50 references: I. Mintusov, A. Trubetskoy-Koshmarov, E. Malkin, M. Grigoriev, O. Pakholkov, A. Sitnikov, A. Bakov, V. Poluektov, A. Chadayev, E . Ostrovsky, S. Markelov.
He has been involved in elections since 1989, took part in the election campaign of Alexander Lebed, worked with the Governor of the Vologda Region Vyacheslav Pozgalev. He made a great contribution to the promotion of the city of Veliky Ustyug as a tourist point and the "Motherland of Father Frost".
Political technologies are a variety of ways to influence the formation of public opinion and to achieve various social and political tasks.
I do not think that political technologies have ever "come" to Russia. They have always existed, at least for the last hundred years, since during this period a colossal machine was created to influence public opinion. Although these were certainly specific political technology tasks. In the modern sense, political technologies began to develop in Russia along with the emergence of competition policy, since about 1988. But again, they didn't come here especially: political technologies were not specially exported. Of course, some world experience was then perceived, but this was not a matter of principle. In Russia, political technology developed in a very specific way.
By the way, as far as I know, the very concept of "political technologies" does not really exist in the world. We invented it ourselves, because we did not want to be called political scientists, since we are engaged in somewhat different things. We did not want to be called image-makers either - this narrows our line of business to the organization of election campaigns. And everyone who began to deal with these things in the late 1980s understood well that it is not only about elections - a much more serious issue. This is how the term "political technologies" appeared in Russia.
I coined this term with my friend Alexander Urmanov in 1990. I'm not convinced that we were the only one like that, then he was in the air. But if there are no other applicants, then we will be the authors.
All my life I have been interested in how elections are arranged in the rest of the world, we did not have this. You will not believe it, but from childhood I wanted to do this. But since this was not the case, I received a completely different education. I am a chemist and I felt great. In 1988 - 1989, I conducted a wonderful campaign with a team of like-minded people, although we didn’t know anything and couldn’t know how. We had an amazing candidate - Alexey Mikhailovich Emelyanov, at that time the head of the Department of Agriculture of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. Then he became president of the Academy of Civil Service under the President of the Russian Federation. He went to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR.
Why did we succeed then? Largely due to the fact that we had a very good candidate and a very good opponent - the famous Soviet lawyer, author of the program "Man and Law". Both were democratically inclined. And then it was simple, if you are a candidate in Moscow and are democratically inclined, then you win. There was a strong fight. At some point, it became clear that you must always tell the truth, it will come out anyway. Our candidate was already a sincere and open person, he held meetings with voters brilliantly. And unlike his opponent, he always spoke the truth - he often cunning.
I do not think that political strategists are divided according to some specializations. People who can call themselves political strategists just understand what kind of tools they need for a specific goal. And they must be able to choose a command for its implementation. One person, naturally, cannot do anything. Therefore, a political strategist must understand how each tool works and can find people who know how to work with it. These people need to blend well with each other. It is important to have a team. Quite often it happens that talented team members begin to extinguish each other, and as a result everything comes down to mutual squabbles. A political strategist is a universal person: he invents the process, organizes it and directs it.
I liked working more under Yeltsin. At that time, there were many more opportunities for creative self-realization for everyone, including political strategists. The people who came to power had more drive, they understood why they were doing it. Many, of course, had financial and career interests, but there were also quite a few who wanted to be involved in politics in pure form... Now this has become more difficult. The system has become more established and rigid. It must be said that the opportunities for communication between a candidate (I am talking about elections now) with a voter have decreased. Everything is strictly regulated by law. This is not bad, but it is designed in such a way that it complicates communication between the candidate and the voter.
I participated in the 1996 election campaign at the headquarters of Alexander Ivanovich Lebed. If we remember Alexander Ivanovich, he could not have been a completely spoiler in that campaign. But there were certainly certain agreements, which is normal. Spoiler - in the classical sense, this is a candidate who is led by the people of another candidate, and he is a doll, put on the arm of these terrible puppeteers. Alexander Ivanovich was not such a person. Objectively, politically, he took a lot from the electorate, protest and patriotic, but not communist-minded. Was it likely that this electorate would go to Zyuganov? Yes, it was. But, if Gennady Andreevich had not led the campaign completely under the red banner with the portrait of Stalin on it, this could have happened. But then it scared people away.
They talk a lot about those elections, there are many legends. But I believe that, first of all, Zyuganov himself lost them, and in a sense he did it even before the elections. Immediately after the parliamentary elections in the winter of 1995, we gathered with a small company of political strategists acting at that time - this was our first corporate meeting, at which we discussed what was happening with politics and our profession in the country. On it we tried to decide, purely speculatively, how Yeltsin, with his then-rating, could win the elections. Everyone agreed that Zyuganov just needed to start behaving like an established president - people would see it and recoil. He did exactly that. In late March - early April 1996, he began to act as president. I began to say things that many people did not like. He had his own electorate, which easily accepted Stalin on the red flag, but they did nothing to attract a new one.
I don’t know about falsifications. At that time there was no such sophisticated electoral technologies yet. They were in some form, of course. At that time, many governors supported Zyuganov, and if, using certain statistical tools, we look at some regions, we will see some deviations. But to a large extent, the election results were fair.
The total role of political strategists in Yeltsin's victory, of course, was high. But the role of political strategists in Zyuganov's defeat is also high, because he also had them and carried out the campaign that they conducted. Boris Nikolaevich worked with the most different people... And those of them who controlled the situation really did a lot to win. Yeltsin then really changed, literally rebelled. There was an impression that he was struggling with himself the same. This made a strong impression, and this is a clear merit of the political strategists.
I was lucky in my life to meet a man who worked as a governor, and our views on what should be done coincided. Vyacheslav Evgenievich Pozgalyov preferred to work exclusively by political methods. He also worked a lot with social technologies. Thanks to this, the elections turned out for him by themselves. He understood that he had to work constantly, found a huge number of communication channels with the population of the region and its various strata. Pozgalev built this system for a very long time. Something could not be done. The point is not that I was an advisor to the governor (there might not have been a crust), it was incredibly pleasant and interesting for me to work with Pozgalyov. I am glad that such people still exist.
Actually, the idea to declare Veliky Ustyug the homeland of Santa Claus belonged to Pozgalev himself. This is a great idea. One can argue about what was done right and what was not, but the project lives on, the brand is flourishing. This says a lot about the quality of the original idea. Not everything in it develops optimally, but the fact that the number of people who, not only in winter, but also in summer want to visit Ustyug, consistently exceeds its capabilities, demonstrates the strength of the brand. And this despite the fact that the money invested in it cannot be called large.
By the way, Pozgalyov himself also came up with the idea of \u200b\u200bnominating Father Frost for the role of a symbol of the Olympics in Sochi. But I was already leading Santa Claus's "pre-election campaign" for this role. I consider it to be generally successful. What could be more Russian and winter than Santa Claus?
Many of my colleagues went to work as deputy governors and mayors. Each of them had their own motives for this decision. There are completely different life circumstances. Someone is interested in trying themselves in a new capacity, to feel themselves on the other side. Someone was attracted by a career in public service... Someone wanted to move from this sphere to public politics. This also applies to party structures. Some of my colleagues prefer to work within the party, but there are those who do not do this on principle. I never had the desire to go to power. This does not appeal to me, this type of activity is not for me. There are severe restrictions when making your own decisions.
A career as a political strategist can be made from scratch even today. Due to the fact that I still teach chemistry and I have many young people in my team, I can say that they are different from us in everything: in their way of life and in their views on the world. Thanks to this, you can find completely different approaches and tools that have never existed before. And if you understand that this particular generation will be more and more significant every year, and purposefully work with it right now, then over time you can achieve significant results in the field of political technologies.
A political strategist must have unclogged brains. You can work in this profession only if you have tough internal principles... They all, of course, are different. But without this, nothing will work. Without them, they just break you. Quite often, tough situations arise with clients and other people, and if every time you start from a set of some new attitudes, then it is unlikely that you will succeed.
The question of money plays an important role. If there are many of them, then money will make me work well. Of course, there are people with whom I will not work for any money, I think each of my colleagues has such a list. But it is different for everyone.
I don't really understand how licensing of political strategists can occur. On what basis? Passing standards and exams? What should be in them then? Based on specialized education? We have no specialized education. After all, political science and sociological education is fundamentally different. It is useful, but not essential. Based on some experience? But any campaign is closed, outsiders are not allowed there. And it is right.
I was lucky to work with Alexei Leonardovich Golovkov, who proposed through Burbulis the idea of \u200b\u200bthe Gaidar government, then he created and invented "Our Home is Russia" and then offered "Unity" to Berezovsky. Has he influenced history? This is about the role of political strategists in post-Soviet Russia. At the same time, he was the head of the government apparatus, headed Rosgosstrakh, was a State Duma deputy, and had high positions in his career. But all that he actually did was ordinary political technology.
And I teach chemistry in my free time from political technologies.
In 1985, on April 23, on the Vremya program, I watched a report on the April Plenum of the CPSU Central Committee. He was a student at that time, studied.
By the end of April, a chief political strategist of the campaign will be appointed in each region where the elections of governors will be held this fall. Now, through the Kremlin, the embassy, \u200b\u200bsome state corporations, expert funds and the heads of the constituent entities themselves, the coordination of candidacies is still ongoing. Interlocutors of the publication close to the Kremlin note that new trend This campaign is an aspiration of many governors running for elections this fall to get a political strategist approved by the Office of Internal Policy (DPO) in the presidential administration. According to one version, it is assumed that such a scheme will allow regional campaigns to remain within the framework of a single scenario and style, which will be developed by the new pro-Kremlin foundation.
“This fund will be the main player in the election of governors. And all other technologists will be guided by it, ”says an agency source involved in the creation of the new organization. We will remind, earlier the media assumed that the dean of the Faculty of Political Science of Moscow State University, Andrey Shutov, would become the chairman of the board of the fund being created. In addition, according to RBC, ex-speaker of the State Duma Boris Gryzlov may become the head of the board of trustees.
Political strategist Andrei Kolyadin says that the process of coordinating political strategists is a counter movement of the interests of the Kremlin and the governors: “Undoubtedly, the Presidential Administration does not miss an opportunity to influence this process, and to influence not only from the point of view of 'love or dislike', but also based on whether these comrades will be able to fulfill the tasks set for the Presidential Administration to promote the main candidates. Still, the main factor in determining who will work in the territory will remain the desire of the governors. "
General Director of BAIKAL Communications Group Eduard Voitenko believes that the recommendation format today is a business tool for political strategists, and not a lifesaver for heads of regions.
Federal political strategists who have already received contracts in the regions, in conversations with the URA.RU correspondent, say that their agreement in the Kremlin was rather symbolic. But there were also conflict scenarios, when in a number of territories the interests of different political groups coincided.
For example, that in Perm Territory when determining the electoral advisor, several candidates arose at once. According to the publication, the deputy head of the UVP Alexander Kharichev recommended the acting governor Maxim Reshetnikov Oleg Matveychev and Dmitry Orlov. But the vice-mayor of Moscow Anastasia Rakova (Reshetnikov is considered a member of Sergei Sobyanin's team) lobbied for the candidacy of the head of the Development Fund civil society (FORGO) Konstantin Kostin.
According to URA.RU, due to the workload of federal projects, Kostin cannot regularly visit the region: in this regard, Bakster group technologists may be involved in some areas of work, in particular, the name of the head of the agency, Dmitry Gusev, is named. In a commentary for the publication, the political strategist Gusev said that he could neither confirm nor deny the fact of the negotiations.
In the Novgorod region, the choice of the chief political strategist was calm: he was the head of APEC Dmitry Orlov, an expert well known in the federal and regional glades. According to URA.RU, his candidacy was promptly agreed upon: Acting Governor Andrei Nikitin himself gave the name of the political consultant, and the Kremlin supported this choice.
IN Yaroslavl region the head of the region, Dmitry Mironov, turned to the Kremlin for help to determine the chief political strategist, the agency's interlocutors say. As a result, political strategist Grigory Kazankov was delegated to the region. Sources of "URA.RU" in regional power structures say: being a law enforcement official, Mironov admits that he has no political experience and therefore hopes for the help of "federal comrades". “Kazankov knows Yaroslavl well, he has worked here many times, he has his own professional team,” says an informed interlocutor of the publication.
A similar problem arose in the Kirov region, where the former head of Rosreestr Igor Vasiliev was appointed acting governor. “And although Vasiliev has political experience (from 2004 to 2010 he was a member of the Federation Council), the political technology market remained an unfamiliar area for him,” the agency's interlocutors, close to the governor's team, explain. As Kommersant already wrote, the campaign in this region will be overseen by Polylog, which is believed to be close to the Kremlin. And Alexey Obydenkov will become the chief technologist.
In Sevastopol, a situation developed in which several groups of political strategists were concentrated around the governor. As a result, local elites have a lack of understanding of who should campaign and be responsible for it. Representatives of the regional political establishment name two people who were allegedly appointed to oversee the election of the governor: the head of the Russian consulting company Image-Contact, Alexei Sitnikov, and the director of the public communications department of Sevastopol, ex-assistant to the Urals plenipotentiary representative Andrei Perlu.
According to the agency's interlocutors, Sitnikov and Perla have different views on the campaign, which may lead to a conflict of interest. But two federal officials said that Sitnikov would be present in Sevastopol solely as a leading expert on crowd technologies and thought factories. He was involved in the creation of a regional development strategy (programs in the field of tourism, joint projects with ASI, Ministry of Health). The interlocutors of the agency, surrounded by acting Dmitry Ovsyannikov, say that Rostec will act as the main moderator in the election campaign of Sevastopol (the company has its own interests in the region).
In the process of agreeing on political strategists in some regions, the plenipotentiaries also play an important role, informed sources say.
In Karelia, the acting governor Artur Parfenchikov is now being consulted by the political strategist Alexei Vasiliev, who may later become responsible for the entire campaign in the region. Local officials say that his candidacy was lobbied by one of the deputy plenipotentiary representatives of the Northwestern Federal District Nikolai Tsukanov. IN Kaliningrad region it is expected that the deputy plenipotentiary of the Northwestern Federal District Mikhail Vedernikov will be responsible for the campaign of the acting Anton Alikhanov. Perhaps the local political strategist Alexei Vysotsky, who worked with the former governor Tsukanov, will also be involved in the work.
In four regions (this is Mordovia, Sverdlovsk, Saratov and Belgorod regions), the governors have not yet received interim status, which means that it is still impossible to speak for sure about the technologists who will conduct campaigns in these regions. But the agency's interlocutors note that in the Belgorod region, Yevgeny Savchenko, most likely, wants to work with his local specialists without "federal guests." And in the Sverdlovsk region there is already a potential curator - the famous political scientist Gleb Kuznetsov. His candidacy should be approved by the UVP in the coming days.
Political scientist Nikolai Mironov names the main criteria for selecting political strategists: “Contacts in the media, federal connections, and the portfolio of campaigns won are valued. It's good when a political consultant has his own team of strong lawyers. " The expert also speaks about possible formats of initial negotiations between the governor and political strategists: the governor usually convenes an expert mini-meeting in a restaurant format, to which a certain number of technologists are invited. He speaks to them, deputies who will lead the campaign are sitting there. And then these technologists are also asked to speak. Then individual meetings are held. "
During negotiations with political strategists, one of the most important points is the determination of the campaign budget, which affects the cost of the services of the attracted specialists. All the interlocutors of the publication pay attention to this. The price is primarily determined by taking into account the level of wealth and the size of the region itself.
“It's one thing - a region with a small budget, called, say, Ryazan region, another - Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug or two million Perm. Here, the same set of services can cost differently. And Savchenko (the governor of the Belgorod region), for example, does not need outside consultants at all, he already has everything under control, ”says the agency's interlocutor from among the political strategists.
The salary of a political consultant is formed taking into account several parameters - this is the presence of acute inter-elite conflicts, the recognition of the candidate, the presence of negative cases. In addition, the work schedule of a political strategist, his media presence, the composition of the team and the actual amount of work are assessed separately.
“The monthly fee for a technologist at the headquarters can be set starting from an amount of 300 thousand to 1 million rubles. This does not include accommodation, communication costs, some also have per diem, ”explains an expert who has repeatedly conducted election campaigns in the regions. According to him, the highest fees are determined by the main ideologists of the campaign (the same federal experts): here the sums can go up to 8-10 million rubles a month. At the same time, the political strategists themselves can appear on the territory no more than 2-3 times a month, the agency's interlocutors say.
Political analyst Maxim Zharov says that "the sooner a candidate finds sponsors for the campaign, the sooner a structure resembling a headquarters will appear." At the same time, the expert believes that the whole alignment of political strategists may still change on the eve of the elections: “The fact that there are reports in the media that some of the political strategists have already begun to receive contracts in certain regions does not mean anything. The active phase of the pre-election campaign in the gubernatorial elections will probably begin 1-1.5 months before the elections. And even then it will be clear which of the political strategists has received which contracts ”.
The political strategist GRIGORIY KAZANKOV spoke about the strength of the positions of the Siberian governors, the aggravation of intra-elite conflicts in the regions, the connection between politics and the economic situation and the hearing in the case of Vasily Yurchenko in an interview to Continent Siberia.
Grigory Kazankov is a political scientist, associate professor at Moscow State University, owner of the Social Management company, which specializes in projects in the field of social technologies. One of the first Russian political strategists, from 1988 to 2015, he conducted about 200 election campaigns. He was in the Top 20 best political strategists in Russia.
Feeling uncertain
How do you feel, to what extent the campaign in The State Duma Has the RF already started? Or is the process still in sleep mode?
I guess hibernation hasn't turned off yet. For ordinary citizens, elections to the State Duma are not included in the top ten or even twenty topical topics or interesting for discussion.
And if you look not from the philistine point of view, but from the point of view of active participants in political processes?
On the one hand, the participants in political processes have joined the campaign, but so far this is an internal work that does not directly affect the voter in any way. It all comes down to reasoning about who will go in which district, to the internal party struggle, agreements. So far, no one has voiced pre-election ideas or proposed their programs. After all, this is the most important thing in the parliamentary campaign, everyone is interested in what will happen next after a single voting day. So far, the pre-election atmosphere is concentrated exclusively within the party cabinets. But it is still early - more than nine months before September.
- Are not accents visible, how will the pre-election agenda be formed?
- Nobody knows the agenda. It very much depends on what will happen to the country. Now it is in a dynamic phase, dramatic changes occur quickly, sometimes within a few days. There is an internal agenda - it is dictated by the difficult economic situation, which continues to deteriorate. Much depends on the financial situation of people - availability, lack of work. The situation is difficult, which inevitably intensifies protest moods. On the other hand, there is a foreign policy agenda. There is a general tendency to increase international role Russia. Quite an important factor, since many citizens feel nostalgic for a great power.
How two such oppositely directed agendas will coexist in the next nine months is hard to say. This is not the specificity of the current electoral cycle, but of a historical moment.
- Here lies one of the differences between the future campaign and the parliamentary elections five years ago.
- Then the foreign policy agenda was practically absent. And the internal political one was far from protesting.
- But what about rallies for fair elections and so on?
- The protests began after the elections to the State Duma, if you remember. Protest moods then arose out of the blue. The authorities themselves provoked them not very competently, in my opinion, by a built "castling" before the presidential elections. In fact, the story was not particularly important for the country, but people reacted to it very painfully.
- How important can protest sentiments be in the new electoral cycle, in your opinion?
- Hard to tell. Primarily because in this moment no one gives clear forecasts about the state of the economy in six months. It is not clear in what country people will live, in what financial and social situation.
What about the president's messages, his appeals to citizens in various direct lines, and so on? No gloomy speeches are heard from the head of state, at most in a couple of years everything will more or less settle down ...
- As for the President's message to the Federal Assembly, there are many interpreters, I would not want to stand in this line. But from my point of view, nothing special was said in the presidential speech, at least there were no words about what would happen in six months. And this is very important: what price tags people will see in stores, what they will be able to afford or not, how upset it will be, and who will they blame - Obama, the governor, the president, the fifth column or ISIS. I dont know.
- Many political experts make forecasts ...
- There is not enough texture for an adequate forecast. Rather, there are too many factors that need to be taken into account. In such conditions, anyone and anything can predict, but this is just an attempt to poke a finger into the sky and hit the target. Perhaps this feeling of uncertainty will play a significant role in the future parliamentary campaign.
Now protests are taking place because of the Platon system. The pre-election year is a good ground for appealing to the authorities, that is, for expanding the category of protesters.
- "Platon" is a very special case that united truckers, because the system hits their pockets and prevents many from making money in the usual way.
- Political forces are trying to take advantage of this "special case".
- It would be weird if we didn't try. Of course, for any protest there will be a force that will use it, otherwise the protest itself will turn into a political force. Remember how the collapse of the Soviet system began? With local strikes of miners. The fact is, they didn't even put forward any special political demands.
I do not want chaos in our country, for the revolution to begin tomorrow. I'm talking about how much depends on the reaction and actions of the authorities and various political forces to a particular situation. And I'm afraid that everything will not be limited to the Plato system. Even if we study the statistics: over the past year and a half, the number of people who belonged to the middle class has decreased by a quarter. They were kicked out of the middle class category.
- Maybe it would be better if the protests did not coincide with the pre-election year?
- Political forces are trying to take advantage of the situation not because it is a pre-election year. Political forces reflect what is happening in society, they are needed for this. In recent years, it was like this: politics - somewhere far away, in Moscow, on the lives of ordinary people is not particularly reflected. But I think the elections will change that.
By the way, oh different countries... You mentioned above that many people feel nostalgic for a strong power. To what extent do these moods give energy to any of the political forces? For example, the Communist Party, which is helping to move the country towards a two-party system?
- On the one hand, nostalgia is strong. But this does not mean that people are ready for active actions aimed at building a great power. Even in the last election campaign in 2015, it was clear that people no longer want to talk about Donbass, about Ukraine. Because deep in the subcortex is the fear of war. There are countries for which war is pride in the state, victories that are won somewhere very far away. For a Russian, military campaigns are a tragedy that affects home and family.
- I assure you, most people are normal. At some point, the brains go a little to the side under the influence of propaganda or some ideas. But the story with Donbass has shown that brains are falling into place.
- The propaganda has not gone anywhere. While she is still not so peaceful ...
Soviet propaganda was not peaceful either. But any propaganda is limited. IN soviet times it spread within the Voice of America, which was jammed. Now are completely different times: the Internet, other alternative sources of information affect the perception of the world. Of course, television totally dominates. But if necessary, you can enter the Internet, it works very effectively.
It is not clear whether the authorities will include today's topics in the future election campaign. It depends, for example, on how successful the Syrian campaign will be. In the meantime, both the authorities and the opposition will have to decide on their election tactics. How many voters will ultimately end up with each party will be affected by international and internal situation in the country. Can't predict now.
But you can see how the parties are working now. Some political experts are willing to make predictions about whether the situation in the State Duma will change.
- The alignment in the State Duma will undoubtedly change. But how - it's hard to guess. I think that at least one more party will appear in the parliament. Because in fact, all three forces of the systemic opposition have largely exhausted their resources. First of all, their leaders exhausted it.
- They will try to rebuild ... Find a change.
- There is enough time to readjust. But will internal reserves allow it to be done?
- "United Russia" postulates a course for renewal. Will this allow the party to maintain its strength?
For "EP" the campaign will be difficult. If only because she will not be able to distance herself from the actions of the government. Its formal leader is the prime minister. So, the members of the United Russia will not be able to say that the government is bad. Everything the government does is reflected in the United Russia rating. The pros and cons of Dmitry Medvedev's department are the achievements and failures of United Russia on the domestic political agenda. As for the foreign policy course, Vladimir Putin is responsible for it. And "United Russia" is not his party, in this space "United Russia" is on a par with all opposition forces.
I am not saying that United Russia will fail in the election campaign - there are many qualified, first-class specialists and politicians in the party. But it will definitely not be easy.
- Is it not easy to prevent a significant reduction in the majority?
- EP has a relative majority. United Russia won 48% in the 2011 parliamentary elections. Due to her success in single-member constituencies, she may be able to hold on to something. But the experience of the legislatures, which passed the elections on party lists and in single-mandate constituencies, demonstrates that single-mandate members are less willing to observe factional discipline. They are more guided by the opinion of their own voters. It will be difficult for faction leaders to manage them. This is fraught with certain problems on a number of issues.
Given that United Russia was already in a fever due to this year's primaries. In the Novosibirsk region for sure ...
- Yes, everywhere is in a fever ...
Now the State Duma of the new convocation will be attended not only by list-books, but also by single-mandate candidates. The intraparty split could be exacerbated.
- I'm not sure if this is fraught with a split. Rather - internal party life. But in different regions the situation is special. There are territories where no one can be seen wishing to go to single-mandate constituencies. But in a number of regions, the number of potential single-member candidates greatly exceeds the number of constituencies. The primaries are pretty risky. They should not become a formality. It is conflicting, very expensive and troublesome. In addition, from August to September, the agenda may change dramatically. Candidates will say a lot during the preliminary vote, and everything said and everything done can become a target for their opponents.
Grounds for inter-elite consensus no longer exist
If we talk about opponents, what regions stand out in this sense? Where can the opposition complicate the position of the "party in power" more?
- All major industrial regions will face a challenging campaign. As usual in Siberia. I think that everything in Novosibirsk will be very lively and difficult. And in Krasnoyarsk too. It is very possible in Tomsk. Especially in Irkutsk after the last gubernatorial elections. In the Urals - in Chelyabinsk, in Perm. A totally problematic region for the authorities - all the subjects of the Northwest.
In almost all of the above regions, there is an aggravation of intra-elite conflicts. The consensus that has been said so much has been exhausted. It was based on an agreement on how to share a large budget or near-budget pie. Everyone got their own construction sites, roads and so on, the governors more or less settled this matter. And now the pie has shrunk so much, and in some cases has almost disappeared, that the ground for consensus has simply ceased to exist.
In the Novosibirsk region, at least in the external space, attempts are being made to maintain peace between different levels of government. After the scandalous election of the speaker of the Legislative Assembly of the Novosibirsk Region, discontent was more broadcasted by the federal party leadership of United Russia.
- Sufficiently sane pragmatic people understand that, in addition to strife, there is current work. The situation is difficult, you need to survive, for this you need to make compromises. But the time of collision will come anyway - not necessarily between the city and the region or the executive and legislative branches. There are many political actors in the region who will prevent the campaign from going quietly, smoothly and boringly.
In 2014, Vasily Yurchenko was removed from the post of governor of the Novosibirsk region due to the loss of the president's confidence. Hearings on his case begin this week. We remember how the "Solodkin case" hit, for example, by the name of the governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Viktor Tolokonsky. It is not known what names and stories will be mentioned in the Yurchenko case.
- This will undoubtedly affect the political situation in the region. But, for example, the hearing of the case of the Tula governor Dudka did not particularly affect the political climate. The same can be said about Tver. But in Tomsk, various political forces seriously reacted to the case of ex-mayor Alexander Makarov, citizens closely watched him. Much depends on the atmosphere in the area, on the texture that will emerge.
With this, everything is not so obvious yet. Yurchenko is not under arrest either. In general, the outcome of the case is not clear, but the “loss of trust” has already occurred.
- Loss of confidence is not a criminal act. You can be a very bad governor and manager, but not commit crimes. There is nothing terrible in the wording “for loss of trust”. Yurchenko was sent not to prison, but to retirement. From the point of view of the president, it worked poorly. Maybe at the trial it will be explained how this was expressed. If Yurchenko turns out to be clean under the criminal code, citizens will ask the question: what was it?
As practice shows, some governors are stigmatized in the media space even without criminal cases. Head of the Krasnoyarsk Territory in recent times came under fire from the media.
- He holds a position in a region where many different interests collide. Influence groups fight each other economically and politically. They have always used a different arsenal for this, with the involvement of criminals, security officials, and so on. So many things have not happened over the past 25 years. Tolokonsky is not his own in this region, not everyone likes him. I think that those interested in media attacks are located inside the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Who needs it in the federal center?
Did anyone in Moscow need a campaign against Novosibirsk politicians, against the new speaker of the Novosibirsk Region Legislative Assembly, Andrei Shimkiv? Some experts believe that the broadcasts on VGTRK are a signal from the federal leadership of United Russia.
- The federal center is a rather abstract concept. The federal center usually does not have a consolidated position in such stories. Perhaps one of the politicians at the federal level is showing any interest in this, but it is very doubtful that media attacks on the speaker of the Legislative Assembly were organized by people close to the president. Maybe there is support at the federal level, but the process must be initiated from within. Look for yourself.
What does the inclusion of Krasnoyarsk Territory Governor Viktor Tolokonsky in the Presidium of the State Council testify to?
- This structure is constantly rotating. Some governors will work, then others come to replace them.
- Not all the governors have been there?
- Gradually, everyone will visit if they have time. The composition changes every six months. In five years, almost everyone has time to work. I do not say categorically, but in my opinion, it is so. It's just that Tolokonsky's time has come. It would be another matter if there was real compromising evidence, perhaps it would not have been introduced into the presidium. So, most likely, there is nothing special about Tolokonsky.
In general, it was not only about Viktor Tolokonsky that they said that the governor's chair was shaking under him. This is a very common story. The name of the head of the Novosibirsk region, Vladimir Gorodetsky, also appears in such rumors.
- I have been interacting with various governors for many years. If he is good, then he will be taken to Moscow, if not local - all the more soon he will leave. There are rumors about any head of the region that he will soon cease to be the head of the region. This should be taken lightly.
- Does the spread of these rumors depend on the strength of political positions?
- The governor sits firmly or not firmly, whether he is good or bad, popular or not - it does not matter. Everywhere, as far as I know, so.
Novosibirsk region and Krasnoyarsk region - very serious regions. And it is unlikely that weak managers could lead them. Both Gorodetsky and Tolokonsky have a lot of political experience. It seems to me that the governor of the Novosibirsk region is quite coping with the main task that was set before him: if not consolidation, then the search for consensus between the political and economic actors of the region.
- And the story with the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly?
- It seems to me that lately in the Novosibirsk region everyone has been trying to come to an agreement with each other. And in my opinion, the governor is showing great initiative in this.
- The speaker was not a contractual figure.
- If everyone tries to come to an agreement, but non-contractual figures appear, then they end up suffering.
- Does political instability undermine the governor's position?
- No, it doesn't. Political stability is not the same as political silence. There are simply people who are not ready to negotiate. Attempts to connect interests are also noticeable in Krasnoyarsk different groups... Tolokonsky does it worse, in my opinion, than Gorodetsky.
In the Novosibirsk region, elections to the Legislative Assembly were held in September. But the deputies did not elect a senator from the legislature for three months.
- And How? Has it strongly affected the residents of the Novosibirsk region? Which of the Novosibirsk residents noticed that he lacks a senator in his life?
What if some fateful decision needs to be made, and there is only one person from the Novosibirsk region in the Federation Council?
- Nightmare. Seriously, the situation with a member of the Federation Council is a reflection of the difficult political situation in the region. But there is nothing catastrophic about this. Anyway, there will be some senator. The Novosibirsk region is not the first to face the problem.
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