Country market: houses are more than necessary. The attractiveness of the country real estate market

The managing partner of Miel-Correne Real Estate, sums up 2017 for the country real estate market and gives a forecast for 2018.

According to the data, 2017 was not remembered by the participants of the country houses and sections with outstanding positive trends. So, out of the 60s published in 2017 the market of new villages really liquid proposal is less than a third.

"Today, the majority of developers adhere to pessimistic sentiment, and from the point of view of marketing and pricing 2017 was indeed not the best period for an active market entry. Suitable demand focused in the low comfort-class segment, where the buyer does not expect much and when making a decision is repelled only from the purchase budget. Demand as a whole is shrinking for a year after year and interest in projects now weakly depends on the transport accessibility, the concept, the availability or absence of infrastructure - the buying behavior is headed by the budget, "said Vladimir Yakhontov, the management partner of Miel-Corresponding property.

But in 2018, according to the analysts of Miel-Country Real Estate analysts, the recession of development activity can be changed by a positive trend: entering the market of new developers of country housing. Although now we can talk about the start in the new year not more than 10 high-quality settlements in the Moscow region, in the second half of the year new projects can be announced. The development in the country market of developers will be pushed by entering from July 1, 2018 by the correction of 214 FZ, which oblige market participants to build multi-storey housing in Moscow to have at least 10,000 square meters in the portfolio. M implemented residential real estate, and also do not allow the issuance of more than 1 permission to build on one company.

"For private commercial developers in Moscow, the period comes when it makes sense to pay attention to country projects. Companies that will not be able to build new work strategies in current realities can enter the country market. At the same time, overcome a restriction of 10,000 square meters. M To obtain a construction permit, including the construction of cottage settlements: This volume is comparable to the village of 50-100 houses, depending on the area; And the demand for ready accommodation today is gradually growing, which can be a positive incentive for novice developers of a country market, "says the expert.

According to Vladimir Yakhontov, in 2018, the transition of demand from the segment of sites without a contract to the segment of finished housing - townhouses and cottages will continue. Stable interest of the audience causes low-rise residential complexes as an alternative to classic cottages: "We also celebrate a stable demand for apartments in low-rise buildings, which are considered as the most affordable finished product in the country segment. For example, in the LCD "Erin Island" in New Moscow, two-room apartments in the budget from 3 million rubles are in the greatest demand: for young families, this is the best opportunity to change the city lifestyle to a more comfortable country, while maintaining the advantages of a civilized environment for life, " Expert talks.

Also, the objective prerequisites for the transition of demand in the finished housing segment are the factors of the budget: "The difference in the cost between self-building at home on the site without a contract and buying a finished product under the" key "is now 5-15% depending on the class class and the materials used. At the same time, those buyers for which house outside the city are not temporary housing, and an alternative to the city apartment, with a large level of comfort and better ecology, are increasingly paying attention to the finished houses from the developer. Those developers who first will understand the main consumer trends in 2018, by the end of the year they have all chances to increase their market share and implement current projects even taking into account the overall reduction in demand.

From the end of January 2016, a surge of purchasing activity is observed in the country elite real estate market. The number of query queries of houses is currently almost 30% higher than in the same period last year. Despite this, many buyers are in captivity of stereotypes that the market is "worth" and with the purchase of a country house you can not rush. Experts of Metric Group analyzed, which misconceptions were formed during the crisis in potential buyers of elite suburban real estate.

1. Elite country house can be purchased now with 50% discount

Almost every second buyer begins to inspect the house with the requirements of the sellers today. Many are confident that in the crisis you can easily reduce the price twice and buy a "Canary for a penny". However, real sales show a completely different picture. With a discount of 40-50% today you can buy only objects worth from $ 10 million.

According to the results of 2015, the beginning of 2016, the average size of a discount on cash transactions worth up to 50 million rubles was 9%, in the price range from 50 to 150 million rubles - 17%, and for objects worth more than 150 million rubles - 24%. At the same time, in the case of particularly liquid houses, located in prestigious directions, with good planning, successful architecture and adequate price, some bracket can not be speech at all.

"It is no secret that the cost of the most expensive country mansions before the crisis was clearly overestimated and often did not comply with the realities of the market," said Ilya Mezhunov, director of the Metric Group of Elite Real Estate Department. - Also, a year ago, prices were taken to indicate in dollars, and now - in rubles. Taking into account the rate of currencies and discount 50% of dollar prices, the cost of houses remained almost the same. At the same time, the demand for such expensive objects - cost from $ 10 million - as in previous years, not high, and transactions are single. The main sales volume today falls on "inexpensive" for this house market, discount to which is either no, or it is minimal. "

2. The country market is now ongoing

All last year, the rumors that many owners rushed to sell their expensive country houses, and the market was flooded with new proposals. It was associated with the next wave of departure families of wealthy people abroad against the background of the "rosy" of crisis phenomena in the country, and with the desire of owners to issue maximum funds from the sale of assets nominated in dollars. In fact, 10 familiar people could leave, and the fantasy thought that the country would leave the majority of major capital owners.

"In fact, the marketing is another phantasmagoria," says Ilya Mezhunov. - Nudencies could have the impression that the number of objects exhibited on the basis of the crisis increased several times. But if you look at the statistics, it turns out that, compared with the beginning of 2014, in 2016 the number of proposals increased a maximum of 10%. The monthly dynamics of the emergence of new objects in the secondary market fully corresponds to the pre-crisis period. In the database of any large real estate company, there are currently 2-3 thousand elite suburban objects. Their number is invariably for several years. "

3. The demand for elite country houses is now minimal

According to Metrium Group, in one week the company comes at least 200 requests for viewing country real estate. It is almost 30% more than for the same period last year, and comparable to pre-crisis indicators. On the day there are 4-5 impressions. "All the second half of 2015, a deferred demand was copied on the market," comments Ilya Mezhunov. - Potential buyers have taken an expectant position, watching the price dynamics. Many sellers really adjusted prices, and the number of objects with an adequate value corresponding to the current realities of the market has become dominated. After the New Year holidays there was a splash of buying activity. The clients had an understanding that the crisis could last how long, but at the same time, life passes. Therefore, many of those who postponed the purchase of a country house "For later", engaged in real search and viewing of suitable objects. "

4. With the purchase of the house you can not rush

This error is a consequence of previous stereotypes: the market is overflowed by the proposal, and the demand for expensive country real estate is missing. "Even if the house in the preview process liked the client, and he managed to agree with the seller about an acceptable price, many buyers are in no hurry to make a deal," says Ilya Mezhunov. - Leaving the object, they continue to "prove the market" and study other suggestions, being confident that the market stands and the offer will not leave anywhere. Meanwhile, this house buys someone else. In February, we had a case when there are three objects in a row from one family in the process of their deliberation. In Moscow, there are approximately 500 thousand dollar millionaires, and the demand for high-quality facilities with an adequate price exists, despite the crisis. "

5. Prices for elite country houses must still fall

In almost all potential buyers are convinced. However, according to the experts of the metric group, the prerequisites for even greater decrease in the value of elite suburban real estate does not exist. For those objects whose owners are really interested in selling, price adjustments to date has already occurred. The rest of the sellers are ready to "keep defense" to the last, and to make concessions to buyers are not going. "When the current situation is maintained - without significant fluctuations in currency exchange rates and new shocks in a foreign policy environment, the cost of elite suburban real estate will remain at the existing level," Ilya Menuongs is sure. - Some customers after viewing the object worth, say, 150 million rubles, they declare that they all liked it, but they are ready to buy this house only for 75 million rubles, without any argument. It is important to understand that if the cost of the object was not initially overestimated, then the price reduction is unrealistic. Especially if we are talking about "inexpensive" for this market proposals. "

"Buyers planning the acquisition of elite suburban real estate in the price range up to 150 million rubles, I would recommend not to postpone the transaction if they chose some kind of object and it suits them in all respects," Ilya Mensubun summarizes. - Today, the most attractive offers leave the market much faster than last year. According to our observations, high-quality houses with an adequate price in the same location at the same time about 50 customers are simultaneously interested. At the same time, in the coming months, we expect even greater growth in the activity of buyers. Traditionally, the summer season is the best period for buying country real estate, since at this time all the pros and cons of objects are visible. We are confident, transactions will be committed in different price segments. But the largest demand is expected to be worth up to 150 million rubles. As a rule, it is a house of 300-500 square meters. m with a plot of 20-50 acres located on prestigious directions. "

Country housing has always been a sign of prosperity and element of luxury, and not the essential, so the crisis in this segment manifested itself earlier, but it takes place as clearly as in the city. The market analysis shows that in 2017 the decline in real estate prices will continue, and the market is waiting for a large redistribution, which is accompanied by a merger and acquisition of weaker companies. Crisis phenomena in the new year will be exacerbated, the volume of transactions to decrease, and the prices fall.

What can be expected

2017 began on the background and promises to be quite difficult for the "market market". This year, experts predict the passage of the "bottom": the volume of proposals will grow, and the solvency of the population decreases. Some stabilization is possible for autumn, prices will stop going down, reaching a minimum level.

The country real estate market also begins to adapt to economic realities. For most Russians, housing in the province is a luxury, but today the trends have changed somewhat. Customers for buying a house began to use the funds reversed when selling apartments in the city. The reason for such behavior was the desire to optimize the cost of maintaining real estate and the desire to get rid of housing, in which there is no need. Now even customers with high income are trying to save. However, in this background in 2016, at home of the class Elite and Premium were best bought, because during the crisis you can buy exclusive objects at very attractive prices.

Most experts working in this area argue that the opinion of the crisis is mistakenly, in fact, there was no big recession in this segment in 2015. In the first half of the year, seasonal activation of buyers was noted, and in the second half the transactions decreased by 30% due to the fact that many customers had already made a purchase. Developers specializing in the elite segment noted that in the 15th year it was difficult to track down certain patterns (as in previous years): in some companies, sales increased, in others remained at the same level.

For example, Villagio Estate has the volume of transactions increased by 30% of the same period of 2014. It is significant that already built houses in villages with a high degree of readiness and secondary housing use the greatest demand. The popularity of recently launched projects in the road segment is growing - this is due to the fact that liquid houses end up, and the demand for them remains. For example, in the village "Renaissance Park" in the summer, it was sold in two more houses than in the spring.

Prospects for rent

The demand for rental of country houses last year remained rather sustainable, and the decline did not exceed 7%. Against the background that the proposal increased by 12%, the competition between sellers intensified. The most popular, as well as during the sale, elite homes are used, here the demand increased by 3% due to the correction of rates caused by competitive struggle. In the middle pricing category, comfort-class houses are used at a distance of up to 40-45 kilometers from the Moscow Ring Road.

Clear regularities of market development are difficult, because the suburban real estate is very different in liquidity levels and quality. As a result, some objects could be obtained a discount of up to 30%, while liquid houses were in demand during the entire season without any discounts. It is interesting that more tenants appeared who wanted to rent housing not for the summer season, but for year-round residence.

Results of 2015 in the market of elite proposals

Despite the good activity in the market, the crisis adjusted customer requests and average prices for objects. If the number of transactions 2015 was not inferior to the past, then the volume of budgets changed significantly. In the elite segment of the purchase amount decreased significantly, buyers sought to conclude transactions in rubles or in US dollars with a discount of up to 50%.

In the summer of 2014, the purchase of houses worth 5-10 million US dollars was considered the usual phenomenon, and in 2015 it became a rarity (the budget over 3,000,000 US dollars is 25% of the total sales). Townhouses worth up to 25,000,000 rubles for finishing, home by budget to 50,000,000 rubles and sections of about 1,000,000 rubles for hundreds of them were great demand. The average budget for the purchase of country elite housing is 2.5-2.8 million US dollars, it turns out that, compared to 2014, it reduced twice.

Blackwood has summed up the first half of the year in the segment and it turned out that 179 facilities were sold. At home in the villages of the premium class (55% of the total transaction) were most popular, most often bought cottages, their share in the premium class reached 62%, and in the class "Lux" - 76%.

Development prospects

Strong attacks and falls in the 15th year in the market of elite proposals were not observed, in general, the volume of transactions decreased by 25% with respect to 2014, and this led to a decrease in prices by 10% -15%. However, the prestigious real estate market is not so strongly susceptible to stress, and the demand for luxury square remains stable.

The dynamics of the implementation of objects shows the following results: in January, March and April were actively bought at home economy class, in February and May - business class, and in the summer periods were prevailed with business and premium facilities. In the first quarter of 2015, feverish demand was noted, customers wanted to preserve their savings and instantly decided to buy property. The extinction of demand also happened quickly as it began. In the spring and buyers again stretched to the market, but in the fall, a new round of devaluation happened, which immediately affected the buying ability of Russians.

The number of new projects in the segment of cottage settlements has declined significantly. Currently, 160 projects are frozen, one third of which periodically begin to reanimate, and are issued for new ones. Sales of cottages and plots in gardening have shown uneven dynamics: bursts of demand replaced in the market, this was caused by non-seasonal factors, and rinic attacks after viewing the news. As a result, the decline in sales in this segment reached 50% with respect to 2014. I would like to note that the most popular objects of the democratic suburban segment last year were small houses without excesses, but with amenities.

Now the conditions on the market are dictated by consumers, and the greatest demand is the objects that are fixed in rubles. The last trend in the elite market was the fixation of the cost in rubles at the rate of 35-50 rubles per US dollar. Experts note that, despite the problems in the economy, customers are ready to continue to buy suburban real estate. Many buyers have savings in foreign currency, so this year it will be possible to make a profitable deal at a good price. However, it is worth hurry, because the most liquid objects in all segments of the country market are gradually disappearing, and the new proposals should not be waiting for the new proposals.

Developers of the villages on the final stage are hurry to sell the remnants and then earn money on the infrastructure, lease and maintenance of existing objects. The remaining projects are likely to face difficulties and will be frozen. Representatives of real estate agencies hope that in the spring, the demand for giving will return, because now many resorts for Russians are closed, and the American dollar rate does not allow resting abroad. It can be said that the country's holiday today is more relevant.

At the moment, analysts are not taken to do forecasts: Economists prophesy fall of the Russian economy. In short, there are no stabilizing factors that could contribute to positive forecasts for the coming years, and given the fact that the provincial housing market is generally poorly predicted, it is almost impossible to draw conclusions about future prospects.

Many experts were calculated that for this spring and the first third of the summer, the Russian rustic real estate market would not only revive, but will begin to add. However, in fact, everything turned out to be somewhat different.

Still, the number of proposals is significantly higher than the demand and activity in the country market exists only in the suburbs. Experts of the Incom Real Estate Department of the Country Real Estate Department analyzed how the area of \u200b\u200bhouseholds and plots were changed on the "fence" of the Moscow Region starting from the pre-crisis 2013. And if we compare the patients of the offered objects with those that use real demand from buyers, it turns out that on average, the first were 24 percent more than the second.

Currently, the dynamics of minimalism literally flourishes in the country market - minus 37.3 percent in four years. This happened due to a significant number in the proposal on the "fence" of low-riquid lots of large areas. Although it may have the impression that the average metrar of country houses increases over time, but in fact it is not so.

Almost all developers and developers with their capabilities reduce areas within the framework of the launched queues of their projects, trying to adapt to new market realities. As a result, from the first quarter of 2013 for the same period of 2017, the average rustic housing method gradually decreased, reaching a number of 131.4 square meters to date. Compared to the pre-crisis 2013, when it was equal to 209.7 squares, the fall was, as mentioned above, is very significant - minus 37.3 percent.

It is important to note that this negative dynamics touched upon all formats. Thus, the average cottage area for four years decreased by 14 percent and is up to 271.4 squares. The Townhouse Square was 7.1 percent - up to 163.1 square meters, duplexes - by 18.2 percent or up to 157.5 squares. Apartments in low-rise residential buildings (MRD) have become less than 11.6 percent, and now their average metrarium is 63.9 square meters.

However, even more than a third of the area of \u200b\u200bcountry housing in more than a third of the suburban housing area does not fully meet the requirements of today's buyers. So it turns out that the average size of the accrued home ownership is now only 100 square meters, which is 23.9 percent less than the average metro station of the proposed lots.

Unlike the consistent dynamics of reducing the areas of houses in the proposal, trends in changing the size of the objects implemented are more diverse. For the period from 2013 to 2017, they went both down and up, depending on the areas of the presented lots.

According to the director of the Department of Country Real Estate "Inkom-Real Estate" Andrey Kreytor.All experts in the country segment suggest that the minimization of the area for the revival of purchasing demand is necessary. Both developers, according to the expert, would be happy to respond to such appeals, but many of them interfere with the inertia of the market itself and, most importantly, the lack of free funds for making adjustments to their projects.

"To get these funds, you need to have good sales, and the offer on the" fence "is now overflowing by morally outdated low-equity lots. I believe that to break this vicious circle, developers, taking into account the current market situation, will require at least five years." Summarizes Andrei Croytor.

In the market of the Moscow region, not only cottages are now overvalued, but also almost all suburban real estate formats

Photo: Depositphotos / Andreyst

Today, suggestions for the villages of the villages went beyond the framework of their classical image - light buildings in the garden cooperative or houses in the so-called "unmarried" villages (countryside of the Soviet elite - officials, scholars, military, artists). Over the past decades, new formats have appeared on the market, which largely reoriented purchasing demand. This is primarily about areas without a contract in the primary market, in which the new owners at their discretion take not only capital buildings, but also cottages. The editorial office of RBC Real Estate analyzed what kinds of today are the most popular and what are the prospects for these formats in the market.

Country real estate market experts characterize modern country projects as follows: House area no more than 100 square meters. m, on a plot of about 6 acres, which is not intended for year-round residence. These houses can be both ready and in the form of projects that the buyer implements independently or concludes a contract of contract with the seller.

However, in general, interest in the country's estate near Moscow is not growing in the last five to six years. According to realtors, sellers with their overwhelmed appetites are to blame. However, not only cottages, but also almost all suburban real estate formats - cottages, townhouses, apartment buildings are now overstated in the country real estate market.

According to Inkom Real Estate, the average price of supply in the country market exceeds the average price of the implementation by 2.2 times (7.7 million rubles. Against 3.5 million rubles). According to specific formats, this exceeding is as follows: 2.8 times - to the plots without a contract and the same on the cottages, 1.5 times - on apartments in low-rise residential buildings, 1.5 times - on townhouses and duplexes. In assessing the head of the Incom-Real Estate Analytics Center, Dmitry Taganova, a total of 18 thousand transactions recorded in the Moscow region market, which is 14% less than in 2013. Of these, the largest number of sales - 56% - accounted for sections without a contract, 25% - to apartments in low-rise residential buildings, 10% - on townhouses and duplexes, 9% - on cottages and plots with a contract.

Cost of cottages, depending on the distance from the Moscow Ring Road and the direction, million rubles.

Source: "Miel-Country Real Estate"

Neither grows nor falls

Now the country's real estate market near Moscow is in a state of stagnation. This segment reacts to crises the most painful - "Second House" is not the subject of the need, so its acquisition is usually postponed to better times. In general, the rustic real estate market entered the phase of stagnation even after the crisis of 2009, now the trend has strengthened even more, the head of the analytical center "Indicators of the real estate market IRN.RU" said Oleg Repchenko.

In 2013, the fall in average value in the country market was 30%. "Last year, prices remained at the same level, but solely because of the appetite of sellers who do not want to pass their price positions," said Igor Bykovsky, Vice-President of the Megapolis-Service Riekolitors Corporation.

In March 2015, the demand for villages near Moscow turned out to be higher than in the corresponding period of last year (although significantly lower than in 2013), which even realizors did not expect. "Last year, in the middle of autumn, we feared that in 2015, people would stop buying cottages in 2015," says Igor Bykovsky. "However, now the number of applications for giving from buyers has grown by almost 15% relative to the relevant period last year."

Mostly the demand relates to a cheap segment of DACC (up to 1.5 million rubles). Especially this tendency was manifested at the turn of 2014-2015, after a sharp collapse of the ruble, when citizens tried to save ruble accumulations from devaluation.

"As the liquid proposal in the market of new buildings" Running from the ruble ", people began to look for other options for rescue funds. As a result, many have come to the country real estate market, where you can buy a six-weave house at a price within 1.5 million rubles, "commented by the President of the Megapolis Service Corporation Sergey Vlasenko.

In the spring, demand began to heated with a seasonal factor. However, this applies far from all objects of dacha real estate, realtors mark.

Format with perspectives

With plots without a contract, as realtors assure, today the chances of the country segment are associated today: the largest share of transactions falls on this segment. "Initially, most potential buyers come to the market in order to acquire ready-made cottages, says Vladimir Yakhontov, managing partner of Miel-Correspondence. "However, 80% of them eventually change plans and buy UBP for country construction." As a result, the RFP in the cottage market accounts for about 75% of proposals.

At the purchase of a plot and building a house, about the same amount is needed as to buy a finished cottage in the secondary market. According to Vladimir Yakhontova, today most buyers are not ready to spend more than 5 million rubles for the purchase of cottages. At the same time, there is a choice: buy immediately by the entire amount ready to give a dacha in the secondary market or to buy a plot without a contract for 1 million and build a house for 4 million rubles on it. However, in the second case, more opportunities to choose the location of the site, build a house by its requests and save.

The price in this segment of the UFB, as Sergey Tsyvin says from the Department of Country Real Estate "Inkom-Real Estate", is on average 3.5 million rubles, in economy class - 2.4 million rubles. However, in the market for the construction of cottages you can find a plot and for 450-500 thousand rubles.

Revalted format

In the secondary cottage market in garden and country partnerships are also a lot of suggestions. However, the segment is very heterogeneous and it is almost impossible to structure. The houses are offered different sizes, from different materials, with different degrees of wear. Transactions here can be performed both with a multiple exceeding real value and with a multiple decrease and often without the participation of realtors.

"This segment is impossible to reliably appreciate," Sergey Tsyvin explained. - Sellers are private owners, the market is not organized and does not obey the common general laws - prices may be unnecessarily overestimated. " Proposals In some cases, so fall out of market realities that are sold for years.

"The segment is overvalued at least by 20%," said Igor Bykovsky vice president of Megapolis-Service. - I will give two demonstration examples. The shield house for 6 acres in the Balashikha district of the Seller has tried to sell for 1 million rubles for a year. However, during this time, not a single request was received on his proposal. After the realtor convinced the owner to reduce the price of 400 thousand rubles, the cottage was sold the next day. "

The second example is the dacha more distant from Moscow in the Pavlova Posad area, while with much better consumer characteristics: insulated, with a fireplace - suitable for winter accommodation. This object has long been exhibited in the market for 4.8 million rubles. After lowering the price of up to 4.2 million rubles. The object found his buyer.

At the same time, Sergey Vlasenko celebrates that suggestions at a price of up to 1.5 million rubles. not long delay in the market. For example, in the southeast and eastern directions, you can buy a ready-made cottage in the 30-kilometer zone from the Moscow Ring Road. Whereas in the north or in the west find an option for one and a half million it is not closer to 80-90 km from Moscow.

The paradox of the secondary country real estate market is that the cheapest offer in the cottage segment is not in demand, argue in Inkom-Real Estate. As an example: a bar of a bar on a plot of 10 acres of 55 km from the Moscow Roucher for 1.97 million rubles. Now this price is lower than the cost of the section without a contract on the primary market, however, given the general decline in the interest in the format of cottages (as well as the growing requirements for buyers), the object is already on the exhibition, the realtor told.

Outgoing format

The garden-country villages of the primary market are offered at home, not intended for year-round residence, with the subordinated communications, roads, shops - the most optimal in terms of consumer characteristics format, realizors approve. "Modern country projects from developers include everything necessary for seasonal stay outside," says Sergey Tsyvin.

According to him, the cottage market is not interested in developers, so this format remains without an alternative financial source and development prospects.

As Vladimir Yakhontov says from "Miel-country Real Estate", they are now sold those summer houses that were previously built within the framework of projects. The minimum price for these offers, according to Inkom-Real Estate, is 2.5 million rubles, and the maximum - 9-10 million rubles. - Depending on the remoteness from Moscow (within the zone from 30 to 55-60 km from the Moscow Ring Road).

On March 20, FZ-46 entered into force on amending the Code of Administrative Offenses of the Code of Administrative Offenses. It also includes an increase in fines for "non-fulfillment of duties to bring lands into a suitable state, non-use of a land plot intended for housing or other construction, gardening and gardening." According to Igor Bykovsky, such a measure can largely stimulate sellers to reduce prices and sell those giving that they did not use, but left until better times.

Activation in the market of sites with a contract is possible after stabilizing the economic situation in the country, when country projects will become attractive to business.

Vladimir Mironov