Country market: more houses than necessary

The expensive segment of suburban real estate is always in a greater risk zone than the market for economy projects. Here, developers simply have no right to make a mistake: in order to survive today, they are obliged to provide an impeccable service, and most importantly - to make the highest quality product that will take into account all the needs of the buyer.

Revitalization or decline

According to experts, the suburban real estate market is beginning to come out of stagnation. This is partly due to the increased availability of mortgages, as well as the financial instruments offered by developers - installment plan, joint individual programs with banks, mortgage vacations and promotions. New projects began to enter the market, which had not been observed for several years. Since the beginning of the year, sales have started in the Moscow Residential Complex "Capital Coast", as well as in the settlements ArtEco and Park Fonte on Novorizhskoe highway. The new supply volume helped to boost sales and lower average prices in the segment. As a result, says Aleksey Korotkikh, commercial director of Villagio Estate, demand for the year increased by 24%, while the cost of the property decreased by 19%.

The main demand is for Rublevo-Uspenskoe highway, since this direction remains the most infrastructurally developed, in the popular villages of Rublevka all the necessary facilities can be reached on foot, notes Ekaterina Rumyantseva, chairman of the board of directors of Kalinka Group.

An important trend this year on the suburban real estate market is the switching of consumer interest from land plots without a contract (the most popular product earlier) to ready-made houses. Compared to 2016, the share of UBP in the total volume of transactions decreased by 10%, while the percentage of transactions with completed cottages increased by 7%.

The main reason for this trend is that today it is more profitable to buy a finished house from a developer than to buy an empty land plot and build on your own, explains Vladimir Yakhontov, managing partner of MIEL-Zagorodnaya Real Estate.

Demand structure for suburban real estate by format

The financing structure is also an illustration of the trend of declining home values. For almost a fifth (17%) of the total number of end buyers, the source of financing is a mortgage loan.

Buyers with real money account for no more than 11% of the total structure of transactions. The purpose of the purchase is for yourself or for your parents. This group includes, among others, those who have already managed to sell a city apartment and come to the suburban market with money, without entering the trade-in system.

The largest group, with a share of 68%, are participants in alternative transactions, when people intend to purchase a house or a country apartment of a larger area through the sale of their apartment.

How to attract a buyer

Today's market is a buyer's market, and sellers do their best to attract customers by offering various bonuses. Optiland has come up with a new format for communicating with clients - meetings between the developer and the residents of the village called "Face-to-face confrontation", says Alexey Odnoral, head of the company's sales department. Such an event helps to resolve all emerging issues on the spot, as well as get high-quality feedback from buyers. In addition, it shows the developer's openness, because one of the criteria when choosing a project is the developer's reliability.

Turnkey ready-made houses are becoming more and more popular. The presence of finishing a country house increases its liquidity and makes it possible to implement such an object in the shortest possible time. Nina Reznichenko, director of the Savills suburban real estate sales department in Russia, believes that most buyers today do not want to spend time and effort on repairs, but tend to move immediately after the transaction is concluded.

In the context of a general shortage of time for collecting information and making a decision, accurate, complete, reliable, relevant information saves time searching for the desired object and helps to quickly reach the goal. Therefore, an important tool for promoting and attracting customers is the website of a realtor company. Portal logic and navigation should be intuitive and simple, and content should be informative. IT technologies also affected the process of working with a client. Many realtors use SMS messages and instant messengers to notify owner-sellers about changes in their property, demand activity, and sales forecast.

The KASKAD Family group of companies began to use VR (virtual reality) and AR (augmented reality) technologies in their projects so that the client, when purchasing a facility under construction, could understand how his townhouse or apartment, as well as public areas, would look like even before buying, says Ekaterina Kogan, Head of Marketing Department. These technologies allow creating spatial, imaginative perception and a clear understanding of the place where a person is going to live. If virtual reality is not enough, then some developers offer a test drive, namely the opportunity to spend a weekend in a house that interests the buyer. Rent with subsequent purchase is also interesting: this is important for ready-made houses. There are few proposals in terms of offset: the exchange of an apartment for a country house. However, according to Vladimir Yakhontov, such actions do not bring a serious effect of increasing sales.

Sometimes developers offer very specific services to their clients. For example, in Istrinskaya Dolina, most of the villages are located near the reservoir, so the company's employees provide legal advice. They not only help to draw up documents, but also tell what a water protection zone and a retaining level of a reservoir are, where you can put a house so as not to have problems with the law.

There are more unusual ways to attract a customer. In the company "MIEL-Zagorodnaya Real Estate", for example, buyers are provided with cash back from the value of the object, that is, reimbursement of part of the value of the object. Previously, this service was present only in the banking sector and was offered to holders of bank cards.

The auction method is gaining popularity on the market, it is used by real estate agencies when selling houses with low liquidity, says Oleg Mikhailik. Previously, the auction method was often used in the urban economy class housing market, now it is adopted by other segments of real estate. The essence of the auction is as follows: the owner significantly reduces the price and arranges bidding for an increase among potential buyers.

According to Natalia Nesterova, commercial director of the development company Troika RED, drawing attention to the project should be carried out in a comprehensive manner, in which case the strategy will work effectively. First of all, at the level of the object itself and its concept - location, availability of infrastructure, choice of apartment formats, landscaping. It's no secret that in suburban real estate, the issue of improvement is of particular importance - it is thanks to him that the atmosphere of suburban life is maintained in the project. Thus, projects located next to large forest parks, water bodies and original landscaping concepts attract more attention from potential buyers.

Presents

Gifts on the suburban market are different - it can be additional discounts from the developer, discounts on services in partner companies or some material things. For example, the Optiland company gave a new Iphone 7 to the last new year when buying a townhouse. By February 14, clients received a romantic trip to Sochi for two also for buying real estate. This year the company plans to give a new Iphone 10 as a gift, perhaps there will be some more additional bonuses in honor of the upcoming holidays.

KASKAD Family is the first company among developers to launch an unprecedented campaign - Aeroflot miles when buying a townhouse, that is, in fact, it is a ticket to China or the USA. Upon purchase, 1 Aeroflot mile is credited for every 100 rubles. The campaign covers a number of settlements: Fedoskino Park, Serednikovo Park, Zelenogradsky. In addition, a special offer is being held at the Zelenogradskiy KP: when purchasing some duplexes - Mini Cooper as a gift.

Price and reputation are more important than gifts

Of course, sellers try to attract customers in various ways. But in the high-end segment, such bonuses are not as effective as product quality, market price and convenient purchase conditions.

Some experts are sure that no bonuses and discounts on the suburban market and on the real estate market, in general, can be compared with the reliability of the developer and the quality of his project. First of all, the buyer will always pay attention to the quality of construction, to the working infrastructure inside the village, to how people live in this village, to the socio-cultural life of the project. All of the above will always be the first "bonus" from a developer to attract buyers. The second plus is special profitable mortgage lending programs in the country's leading banks or convenient installment programs. Today's buyers are no longer looking for just a home on a piece of land. One beautiful wrapper is not enough for them, but what's inside is important. As practice shows, projects in which the developer thought out and implemented the internal infrastructure, selected an efficiently operating management company, helped create comfort and atmosphere for residents, organized social and entertainment events - they will always be sold regardless of the season or the economic situation in the country.

Especially for the portal "All new buildings"

Analysts of the Metrium Group have summed up the results of the year in the primary suburban real estate market. The supply volume increased by 5%. Average price per sq. m decreased by 24%.

According to Metrium Group, in 2017 there was some revival in the suburban real estate market. Two new villages are on sale. In February, the sale of finished cottages in the elite KP ArtEco started in New Riga. Also, in the first half of the year, plots with a contract entered the market in a new premium-class KP Wright Village (25 km in the Kiev direction).

In addition to the projects received, the offer was updated due to the start of sales of new lines in three villages: Uspensky Les, Fedoskino Park and Razdory-2.

For comparison, for the whole of 2016 the market was replenished with only one project and one new line in an already being implemented village.

In the elite KP Rubin Estate, the last lot was sold last year.

Thus, at the end of 2017, there were 42 cottage settlements on the primary suburban real estate market of the Moscow region with a supply volume of about 1,025 households. In the annual dynamics, the sample increased by 5%.

As analysts from Metrium Group note, at the end of 2017, almost 2/3 of the total supply in terms of the number of households is concentrated in two areas: Novorizhskoe and Kievskoe (30.8% each). Over the year, the share of the former decreased by 9.7 percentage points. by washing out the supply in several villages. The share of the second, on the contrary, increased by 15.8% against the background of a new KP entering the market. They are followed by Rublevo-Uspenskoe highway (20.4%, -6.6 pp). The share of Dmitrovskoe highway was 13.4% (+0.2 pp), Minsk highway - 4.6% (+ 0.3 pp).

The prevailing volume of supply (58.4%) is located at a distance of 21-30 km from the Moscow Ring Road (-3.4 pp per year). Slightly more than a third of the market (31.7%) is concentrated within a radius of 11-20 km from the Moscow Ring Road (+1.0 pp). Only 6.9% of households are represented in the most remote territories (over 31 km), and 3% - in the near zone (up to 10 km). Their shares for the reporting period showed the dynamics of +2.1 pp. and +0.3 p.p. respectively.

In the structure of supply by class, the main volume falls on lots in elite settlements (61.5%, + 5.1 pp). A quarter of the offer (25.2%, -7.1 pp) is sold in a business class commercial offer. Traditionally, the share of low-budget properties in the areas under study is small (13.3%, +2.1 pp).

The most notable changes have taken place on the Kievskoe highway. The release of a new high-budget KP led to a twofold increase in elite offers in the location (up to 56.2%, +53.5 pp since the beginning of the year).

At the end of the year, the average floor area of \u200b\u200bhome ownership in the suburban market was 538.2 square meters. m (-6.6% YTD). In terms of directions, negative dynamics was observed on Dmitrovskoye (-10.9%) and Novorizhskoye highways (-9.5%). For the rest of the locations, the average area of \u200b\u200blots increased: at Rublevo-Uspenskoye by 17.4%, at Kievsky by 15.5%, at Minsk by 4.5%. The reason for the changes was a combination of two factors: the receipt of proposals for a smaller area and the washing out of smaller households.

According to analysts from Metrium Group, in December 2017 the average price per sq. m in the primary suburban market of the selected areas amounted to 127,980 rubles. In comparison with the previous year, the indicator has significantly decreased - by 24%. This is due to the release of the volume of new supply at attractive starting prices. In addition, in some of the projects already exhibited, the developers went for a direct price reduction.

Reduction of the average price per sq. m of home ownership for the reporting period was noted in all directions. The largest correction was recorded on Kievskoye (-30.3%), Rublevo-Uspenskoye (-27.6%) and Novorizhskoye shosse (-18.4%). On the Minsk and Dmitrovsky directions, the change was less significant: -10.2% and -8.9%, respectively.

A decrease in the average area of \u200b\u200bhome ownership, combined with a decrease in the average price of square meters. m led to an adjustment in the average cost of the lot. At the end of 2017, it amounted to 60.9 million rubles. (-41.4%). The greatest influence was exerted by the change in the supply structure in the Novorizhskoe direction. In a location, the average cost of a lot has halved to RUB 53.3 million. (-56.4%).

The most expensive lots are presented in Minsk (on average - 162.7 million rubles) and Rublevo-Uspenskoye highway (on average - 114.8 million rubles). During the year they fell by 6.3% and 16.1%, respectively.

Main trends

Development activity

“The primary suburban real estate market is characterized by low development activity,” comments Ilya Menzhunov, director of the suburban real estate department at Metrium Group, a member of the CBRE partner network. - However, in comparison with the previous reporting period, there was some revival in 2017 - two villages and new queues in three already exhibited projects entered the implementation. For comparison, in 2016 the market was replenished with only one object and one new line. The reason can be noted that despite the high level of competition (including from the secondary market), there is little really liquid supply on the market.

Increased supply liquidity

“One of the demand generation tools that developers used in 2017 was the supply of finished homes,” continues Ilya Menzhunov. - So, in the ArtEco KP that entered the market, all cottages are supposed to be transferred to buyers with finishing. In addition, in a number of already exhibited projects, developers began to offer lots with ready-made repairs.

It is worth noting the high level of discount provided in many villages. In the past year, it reached 40%. However, it should be noted that such a high rate is observed mainly in projects that have been exhibited on the market for a long time - this is how developers strive to implement a low-liquid offer ”.

Demand

“In 2017, there was an increase in interest from buyers to the suburban primary real estate market,” Ilya Menzhunov draws attention. - Several main factors contributed to this. Firstly, a new volume of supply at attractive prices has been released. Secondly, against the background of tougher competition, some developers decided to reduce prices in the villages already on display. In addition, they used other instruments to increase supply liquidity. Thirdly, there is a realization of deferred demand - if earlier some of the potential buyers took a wait-and-see attitude in order to buy a country house at a lower cost, now the offer with attractive budgets on sale has pushed them to action. "

Forecast

“Taking into account the new realities (both economic and the suburban real estate market), a significant change in the situation is not expected in 2018,” summarizes Ilya Menzhunov, Director of the Suburban Real Estate Department of Metrium Group, a member of the CBRE partner network. - With the aim of selling low-liquid lots, developers will either continue to directly reduce prices, or continue to offer extremely high discounts. Indeed, over time, the offer in the long-sold villages becomes less and less relevant and meets the needs of modern buyers. In this connection, the average price will either creep down or stagnate. The main demand will be concentrated in new projects that meet the needs of buyers. Considering the fact that part of the deferred demand was realized in the past year, a surge in 2018 is not expected. "

Suburban housing has always been a sign of prosperity and an element of luxury, not a basic necessity, so the crisis in this segment manifested itself earlier, but is not as pronounced as in the city. Market analysis shows that in 2017 the decline in real estate prices will continue, and the market will face a major redistribution, which is accompanied by mergers and acquisitions of weaker companies. The crisis phenomena in the new year will worsen, the volume of transactions will decrease, and prices will fall.

What to expect

2017 started against the background and promises to be quite difficult for the "space market". This year, experts predict that the “bottom” will pass: the volume of proposals will grow, and the population's ability to pay will decline. Some stabilization is possible by autumn, prices will stop going down, reaching the minimum level.

The suburban real estate market is also beginning to adapt to economic realities. For most Russians, housing in the provinces is a luxury, but today the trends have changed somewhat. Clients began to use the proceeds from the sale of an apartment in the city to buy a house. The reason for this behavior was the desire to optimize the cost of maintaining real estate and the desire to get rid of housing that is not needed. Now even high-income buyers are trying to save money. However, against this background, in 2016, the best buyers were elite and premium class houses, because during the crisis you can buy exclusive properties at very attractive prices.

Most experts working in this area argue that the opinion about the crisis is wrong, in fact, there was no big decline in this segment in 2015. In the first half of the year there was a seasonal activation of buyers, and in the second half the volume of transactions decreased by 30% due to the fact that many customers have already made a purchase. Developers specializing in the elite segment point out that it was difficult to trace certain patterns in the 15th year (as in previous years): in some companies sales increased, in others they remained at the same level.

For example, at Villagio Estate, the volume of transactions increased by 30% compared to the same period in 2014. It is indicative that the most in demand are already built houses in villages with a high degree of readiness and secondary housing. The popularity of recently launched projects in the expensive segment is also growing - this is due to the fact that liquid houses are running out, and the demand for them remains. For example, in the village of Renaissance Park, two more houses were sold in the summer than in the spring.

Rental prospects

The demand for rent of country houses in the past year remained quite stable, and the decline did not exceed 7%. Against the background of the fact that the supply increased by 12%, the competition between sellers intensified. The most popular, as well as in the sale, are elite houses, here the demand increased by 3% due to the correction of rates caused by the competition. In the middle price category, comfort-class houses located at a distance of 40-45 kilometers from the Moscow Ring Road enjoy stable interest.

It is difficult to identify clear patterns of market development, because suburban real estate differs greatly in the level of liquidity and quality. As a result, it was possible to get discounts of up to 30% on some properties, while liquid houses were in demand throughout the season without any discounts. Interestingly, there are more tenants who want to rent housing not for the summer season, but for year-round living.

Results of 2015 in the market of elite offers

Despite the good activity in the market, the crisis has adjusted the needs of buyers and the average prices for objects. If in terms of the number of transactions 2015 was not inferior to the past, then the volume of budgets changed significantly. In the elite segment, the purchase amounts have significantly decreased, buyers sought to conclude transactions in rubles or US dollars with a discount of up to 50%.

In the summer of 2014, the purchase of houses worth $ 5-10 million was considered commonplace, and in 2015 it became a rarity (the budget over $ 3,000,000 is 25% of the total sales). Townhouses costing up to 25,000,000 rubles for finishing, houses with a budget of up to 50,000,000 rubles and plots of about 1,000,000 rubles per hundred square meters were in great demand. The average budget for the purchase of suburban elite housing is 2.5-2.8 million US dollars, it turns out that compared to 2014, it has decreased by half.

Blackwood summed up the results of the first half of the year in the segment and it turned out that a total of 179 properties were sold. The most popular were houses in the “premium” class villages (55% of the total volume of transactions), most often cottages were bought, their share in the “premium” class reached 62%, and in the “luxury” class - 76%.

Development prospects

There were no strong ups and downs in the 15th year in the elite offer market; in general, the volume of transactions decreased by 25% compared to 2014, and this led to a decrease in prices by 10% -15%. However, the prestigious real estate market is not so stressed, and the demand for luxury space remains stable.

The dynamics of the sale of objects shows the following results: in January, March and April, economy-class houses were actively bought, in February and May - business-class houses, but in the summer period transactions with business and premium-class objects prevailed. In the first quarter of 2015, there was a feverish demand, clients wanted to keep their savings and made an immediate decision to buy property. Demand decay happened as quickly as it began. In the spring, buyers again reached out to the market, but in the fall a new round of devaluation took place, which immediately affected the purchasing power of Russians.

The number of new projects in the segment of cottage settlements has significantly decreased. Currently, 160 projects are frozen, a third of which periodically begin to reanimate, and are issued as new ones. Sales of summer cottages and plots in horticulture showed uneven dynamics: surges in demand were replaced by a lull in the market, this was caused not by seasonal factors, but by panic attacks after watching the news. As a result, sales in this segment decreased by 50% compared to 2014. I would like to note that the most popular objects in the democratic suburban segment last year were small houses with no frills, but with amenities.

Now the conditions on the market are dictated by consumers, and the objects in greatest demand are those whose prices are fixed in rubles. The latest trend in the elite market was the fixing of prices in rubles at the rate of 35-50 rubles per US dollar. Experts note that despite the problems in the economy, clients are ready to continue buying suburban real estate. Many buyers have savings in foreign currency, so this year it will be possible to make a good deal at a good price. However, it is worth hurrying up, because the most liquid properties in all segments of the suburban market are gradually disappearing, and new offers should not be expected in the near future.

Developers of settlements that are at the final stage are in a hurry to sell off their leftovers and continue to earn money on infrastructure, rent and maintenance of existing facilities. The rest of the projects are likely to face difficulties and will be frozen. Representatives of real estate agencies hope that by the spring the demand for summer cottages will return, because now many resorts are closed for Russians, and the US dollar rate does not allow them to relax abroad. We can say that the country holiday is more relevant today than ever.

At the moment, analysts do not undertake to make forecasts: economists predict the fall of the Russian economy. In short, no stabilizing factors are seen that could contribute to positive forecasts for the coming years, and given that the provincial housing market is generally poorly predictable, it is almost impossible to draw conclusions about the prospects for the future.

Since the end of January 2016, a surge in purchasing activity has been observed in the suburban elite real estate market. The number of home view requests is now nearly 30% higher than the same period last year. Despite this, many buyers are captivated by the stereotypes that the market is “worth it”, and there is no need to rush to buy a country house. Experts of the Metrium Group company analyzed what misconceptions were formed during the crisis among potential buyers of luxury suburban real estate.

1. An elite country house can now be bought with a 50% discount

Almost every second buyer starts a home inspection today by demanding a discount from sellers. Many are sure that in a crisis, you can easily cut the price in half and buy a "canary for a penny." However, real sales show a very different picture. With a discount of 40-50%, today you can only buy objects worth $ 10 million or more.

At the end of 2015 - early 2016, the average discount on transactions with houses worth up to 50 million rubles was 9%, in the price range from 50 to 150 million rubles - 17%, and for objects worth more than 150 million rubles - 24%. At the same time, in the case of particularly liquid houses located in prestigious areas, with a good layout, good architecture and an adequate price, there can be no talk of any bargaining at all.

“It's no secret that the cost of the most expensive country houses before the crisis was clearly overstated and often did not correspond to the realities of the market,” says Ilya Menzhunov, Director of the Elite Real Estate Department of Metrium Group. - In addition, a year ago it was customary to indicate prices in dollars, and now - in rubles. Taking into account the exchange rate and a 50% discount from dollar prices, the cost of houses in rubles remained practically the same. At the same time, the demand for such expensive objects - with a cost of $ 10 million - as in previous years, is not high, and transactions are rare. The main volume of sales today falls on “inexpensive” houses for this market, for which there is either no discount or it is minimal ”.

2. The suburban market is now overstocking

Over the past year, rumors have been circulating every now and then that many owners rushed to sell their expensive country houses, and new offers flooded the market. This was associated with the next wave of families of wealthy people leaving the country against the background of the "rampage" of the crisis in the country, and with the desire of the owners to get the most from the sale of assets denominated in dollars. In fact, 10 acquaintances could have left, and the fantasy added that most of the owners of large capital were leaving the country.

“In fact, the overstocking of the market is another phantasmagoria,” says Ilya Menzhunov. - Non-specialists might have got the impression that the number of objects put up for sale has increased several times with the onset of the crisis. But if you look at the statistics, it turns out that in comparison with the beginning of 2014, in 2016 the number of offers increased by a maximum of 10%. The monthly dynamics of the appearance of new objects in the secondary market is fully consistent with the pre-crisis period. In the database of any large real estate company there are currently 2-3 thousand elite suburban properties. Their number has remained unchanged for several years already. "

3. The demand for luxury country houses is now minimal

According to Metrium Group, in one week the company receives at least 200 requests for viewing suburban real estate. This is almost 30% more than in the same period last year, and is comparable to the pre-crisis indicators. There are 4-5 shows per day. “During the entire second half of 2015, the market has been accumulating deferred demand,” comments Ilya Menzhunov. - Potential buyers took a wait-and-see attitude, watching the price dynamics. Many sellers have indeed adjusted their prices, and the number of properties with adequate value, corresponding to the current market realities, began to dominate. After the New Year holidays, there was a surge in consumer activity. Clients have come to understand that a crisis can last as long as they want, but at the same time life goes on. Therefore, many of those who postponed the purchase of a country house "for later", engaged in a real search and viewing of suitable objects. "

4. You don't have to rush to buy a house

This misconception is a consequence of previous stereotypes: the market is overflowing with supply, and there is no demand for expensive suburban real estate. “Even if the client liked the house during the viewing process, and he managed to negotiate an acceptable price with the seller, many buyers are in no hurry to make a deal,” says Ilya Menzhunov. - After leaving the facility, they continue to “probe the market” and study other offers, being sure that the market is standing and the offer will not go anywhere. In the meantime, this house is bought by someone else. In February we had a case when three objects in a row “left” from one family in the process of their thoughts. There are about 500 thousand dollar millionaires in Moscow, and the demand for quality properties with adequate prices exists despite the crisis. "

5. Prices for luxury country houses should still fall

Almost all potential buyers are convinced of this. However, according to experts from Metrium Group, there are no prerequisites for an even greater reduction in the cost of luxury suburban real estate. For those objects, the owners of which are really interested in selling, price adjustments have already taken place. The rest of the sellers are ready to "hold the line" to the last, and are not going to make concessions to buyers. “If the current situation persists - without significant fluctuations in exchange rates and new shocks in the foreign policy environment - the cost of elite suburban real estate will remain at the current level,” Ilya Menzhunov is sure. - Some clients, after viewing an object worth, say, 150 million rubles, declare that they liked everything, but they are ready to buy this house for only 75 million rubles, without any reasoning. It is important to understand that if the cost of the object was not initially overstated, then a doubling of the price is unrealistic. Especially when it comes to offers "inexpensive" for this market. "

“For buyers planning to purchase elite suburban real estate in the price range of up to 150 million rubles, I would recommend not to postpone the deal if they have chosen some object and it suits them in all respects,” sums up Ilya Menzhunov. - Today the most attractive offers leave the market much faster than last year. According to our observations, about 50 clients are currently interested in high-quality houses with an adequate price in the same location. At the same time, in the coming months we expect an even greater growth in the activity of buyers. Traditionally, the summer season is the best period for buying suburban real estate, since all the pros and cons of objects are visible at this time. We are confident that transactions will be made in different price segments. But the greatest demand is expected for objects worth up to 150 million rubles. As a rule, these are houses with an area of \u200b\u200b300-500 sq. m with a plot of 20-50 acres, located in prestigious areas. "

On the market of the Moscow region, not only dachas are now overvalued, but also practically all formats of suburban real estate

Photo: Depositphotos / AndreySt

Today, proposals for summer cottages near Moscow have gone beyond their classical image - light buildings in a garden cooperative or houses in the so-called "old-fashioned" villages (places of the suburban life of the Soviet elite - officials, scientists, military men, artists). Over the past decades, new formats have appeared on the market, to which consumer demand has largely reoriented. First of all, we are talking about plots without a contract in the primary market, where new owners, at their discretion, erect not only capital buildings, but also summer cottages. The editorial board of RBC Real Estate analyzed which dachas are the most popular today and what are the prospects for these formats on the market.

Suburban real estate market experts characterize modern summer cottage projects as follows: a house with an area of \u200b\u200bno more than 100 sq. m, on a plot of about 6 acres, which is not intended for year-round living. These houses can be either ready-made or in the form of projects that the buyer implements on his own or enters into a contract with the seller.

However, in general, interest in suburban real estate in the Moscow region has not been growing over the past five or six years. According to realtors, sellers with their inflated appetites are to blame for this. However, in the suburban real estate market, not only dachas are now overvalued, but also practically all formats of suburban real estate - cottages, townhouses, apartment buildings.

According to Inkom-Nedvizhimost, the average offer price on the suburban market exceeds the average selling price by 2.2 times (RUB 7.7 million versus RUB 3.5 million). For specific formats, this excess is as follows: 2.8 times - for plots without a contract and the same for cottages, 1.5 times - for apartments in low-rise residential buildings, 1.5 times - for townhouses and duplexes. According to Dmitry Taganov, head of the Inkom-Realty analytical center, in total, in 2014, 18 thousand transactions were recorded on the Moscow region market, which is 14% less than in 2013. Of these, the largest number of sales - 56% - fell on the share of plots without a contract, 25% - for apartments in low-rise residential buildings, 10% - for townhouses and duplexes, 9% - for cottages and plots with a contract.

The cost of a summer residence, depending on the distance from the Moscow Ring Road and the direction, million rubles

Highway	up to 30 km	30-50 km	50-85 km	for 85 km
Dmitrovskoe highway	3-65	1,5- 15	0,7- 6	0,6- 5
Kaluzhskoe highway	2,5- 65	2,5- 18	2- 15	0,8- 4,7
Kashirskoe highway	2- 15	1,4- 5	1,5- 4,5	0,8- 3,5
Kievskoe highway	3,5- 60	1,5- 10	2- 15	0,4- 3,5
Mozhaisk highway Minsk highway	3,2- 38	2,3- 11	1- 9	1- 3
Novoryazanskoe highway Egoryevskoe highway	2- 10	1,2- 9	0,7- 7	0,8- 4
Nosovikhinskoe highway Gorkovskoe highway	1,5- 16	0,7- 10	0,6- 7	0,7- 4
Pyatnitskoe highway Leningradskoe highway	3- 60	1,5- 6,3	2- 8	0,7- 6
Rublevo-Uspenskoe highway Novorizhskoe highway	3,5- 80	3- 15	1,8- 9	1,5- 6
Simferopol highway	2,5- 8	2,2- 5,5	2- 5	1- 5
Yaroslavskoe highway	2,5- 20	2- 8	0,6- 6	1,5- 4

Source: "Miel-Country Property"

Neither grows nor falls

Now the suburban real estate market is in a state of stagnation. This segment reacts to crises most painfully - the "second home" is not an essential item, so its acquisition is usually postponed until better times. In general, the suburban real estate market entered a phase of stagnation even after the crisis of 2009, now the trend has strengthened even more, said Oleg Repchenko, head of the IRN.RU Real Estate Market Indicators analytical center.

In 2013, the fall in the average cost in the dacha market was 30%. “Last year, prices remained at the same level, but solely because of the appetite of sellers who did not want to give up their price positions,” said Igor Bykovsky, vice president of the Megapolis-Service realtors corporation.

In March 2015, the demand for dachas near Moscow turned out to be higher than in the corresponding period last year (although significantly lower than in 2013), which even realtors did not expect. “Last year, in the middle of autumn, we feared that in 2015 people would stop buying dachas altogether,” says Igor Bykovsky. “However, now the number of applications for summer cottages from buyers has grown by almost 15% compared to the corresponding period last year.”

Mostly the demand concerns the cheap segment of summer cottages (up to 1.5 million rubles). This trend was especially manifested at the turn of 2014-2015, after a sharp collapse of the ruble, when citizens tried to save ruble savings from devaluation.

“As the liquid supply on the market of new buildings was washed away, people“ running away from the ruble ”began to look for other options to save money. As a result, many have come to the dacha real estate market, where you can buy a house with six hundred square meters at a price of 1.5 million rubles, ”comments Sergey Vlasenko, president of the Megapolis-Service corporation.

In the spring, the demand began to be warmed up by the seasonal factor. However, this does not apply to all summer cottage properties, realtors say.

Perspective format

With plots without a contract, as realtors assure, today the chances of the dacha segment for development are associated: the largest share of transactions falls on this segment. “Initially, the majority of potential buyers come to the market to purchase ready-made summer cottages,” says Vladimir Yakhontov, managing partner of Miel-Zagorodnaya Real Estate. “However, 80% of them eventually change plans and buy UBP for suburban construction.” As a result, the share of UBP in the dacha market accounts for about 75% of offers.

The purchase of a plot and the construction of a house requires approximately the same amount as for the purchase of a finished summer cottage in the secondary market. According to Vladimir Yakhontov, today most buyers are not ready to spend more than 5 million rubles on buying a summer residence. At the same time, there is a choice: to buy a ready-made summer cottage in the secondary market for the entire amount at once, or to purchase a plot without a contract for 1 million and build a house on it for 4 million rubles. However, in the second case, there are more opportunities to choose the location of the site, build a house according to your requests and save money.

The price in this UBP segment, according to Sergey Tsyvin from the suburban real estate department of Inkom-Real Estate, averages 3.5 million rubles, in the economy class - 2.4 million rubles. However, on the market for building a summer house, you can find a plot for 450-500 thousand rubles.

Overrated format

There are also a lot of offers in the secondary market of summer cottages in garden and summer cottage associations. However, the segment is very heterogeneous and almost impossible to structure. Houses are offered in different sizes, materials, and wear rates. Transactions here can be made both with a multiple increase in real value, and with a multiple decrease, and often without the participation of realtors.

“This segment cannot be reliably estimated,” explained Sergey Tsyvin. “Sellers are private owners, the market is not organized and does not obey uniform general laws - prices may be unjustifiably high.” In some cases, offers fall out of market realities so much that they are sold for years.

“The segment is overvalued by at least 20%,” said Igor Bykovsky, vice president of Megapolis-Service. - I will give two illustrative examples. The seller tried to sell a panel house on 6 acres in the Balashikha area for 1 million rubles for a year. However, during this time, not a single request was received for his proposal. After the realtor convinced the owner to lower the price by 400 thousand rubles, the dacha was sold the next day.

The second example is a dacha located more distant from Moscow in the Pavlova Posad area, with much better consumer characteristics: insulated, with a fireplace - suitable for winter living. This object was exhibited on the market for a long time for 4.8 million rubles. After lowering the price to 4.2 million rubles. the object has found its buyer.

At the same time, Sergei Vlasenko notes that proposals at a price of up to 1.5 million rubles. do not stay on the market for long. For example, in the south-east and east directions for such a price you can buy a ready-made summer cottage in a 30-kilometer zone from the Moscow Ring Road. Whereas in the north or west, you can find an option for one and a half million no closer than 80-90 km from Moscow.

The paradox of the secondary suburban real estate market is that the cheapest offer in the dacha segment is not in demand, according to Inkom-Nedvizhimost. As an example: a house made of timber on a plot of 10 acres, 55 km from the Moscow Ring Road for 1.97 million rubles. Now this price is lower than the cost of a land plot without a contract in the primary market, however, given the general decline in interest in the dacha format (as well as the growing demands of buyers for them), the object has been on display for a year, the realtor said.

Dear cottages The format of "old-fashioned" settlements today is dissolving in projects of low-rise buildings, which are being built up in the nearest Moscow region. As a result, many of them are gradually losing their exclusivity and elitism. And there are fewer and fewer good offers, and the segment practically doesn’t make any difference in the secondary market of country houses. According to the general director of the exclusive real estate agency "Usadba" Nadezhda Khazova, in the segment of expensive dachas, the most popular directions are still Rublevo-Uspenskoe, Novorizhskoe, Kievskoe, Kaluzhskoe, Minskoe and Mozhayskoe highways, as well as objects near large reservoirs in the northern directions. Offers in old places, as in the case of SNT, cannot be differentiated by price levels. “In the old town of Nov 'in Barvikha, there is a house not in the best condition, which costs more than $ 1 million (at the current exchange rate). At the same time, a similar option in Novoperedelkino is estimated at $ 500-600 thousand.

Outgoing format

Garden and dacha villages of the primary market, where houses are offered that are not intended for year-round living, with communications, roads, shops, are the most optimal format in terms of consumer characteristics, realtors say. “Modern dacha projects from developers include everything you need for a seasonal stay outside the city,” says Sergei Tsyvin.

According to him, the dacha market is not interesting for developers, so this format remains without an alternative financial source and development prospects.

According to Vladimir Yakhontov from Miel-Zagorodnaya Nedvizhimost, those country houses that were previously built as part of USP projects are now being sold. The minimum price for these proposals, according to Inkom-Real Estate, is 2.5 million rubles, and the maximum price is 9-10 million rubles. - depending on the distance from Moscow (within the zone from 30 to 55-60 km from the Moscow Ring Road).

On March 20, FZ-46 “On Amendments to the Code of Administrative Offenses of the Russian Federation” came into force. Among other things, it provides for an increase in fines for "failure to comply with obligations to bring land to a suitable condition, failure to use a land plot intended for housing or other construction, gardening and truck farming." According to Igor Bykovsky, such a measure can greatly stimulate sellers to reduce prices and sell those dachas that they did not use, but left until better times.

Activation of land plots with a contract on the market is possible after the stabilization of the economic situation in the country, when dacha projects become attractive for business.

Non-use of landintended for housing or other construction, gardening, truck farming, shall entail the imposition of an administrative fine. If the cadastral value of the land plot is determined: - for citizens - in the amount of 1- 1.5% of the cadastral value of the land plot, but not less than 20 thousand rubles; - for officials - from 1.5- 2% of the cadastral value of the land plot, but not less than 50 thousand rubles; - for legal entities - 3- 5% of the cadastral value of the land plot, but not less than 400 thousand rubles. If the cadastral value is not determined: - for citizens - 20- 50 thousand rubles; - for officials - 50- 100 thousand rubles; - for legal entities - 400- 700 thousand rubles From FZ-46 "On Amendments to the Code of the Russian Federation on Administrative Offenses"

Vladimir Mironov