Why Medvedev has resigned. "Putin will not offend Medvedev": what post will the prime minister take after the elections
The real or alleged resignation of Dmitry Medvedev in 2018 has repeatedly been in the spotlight of the media, the latest news on this topic today is associated with the long absence of the Russian prime minister at public events. Has the head of government really left his post?
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and President Vladimir Putin
The disappearance of the prime minister
The prime minister has not appeared in public or on television since 14 August. On this day, he met with Andrei Travnikov, the interim governor of the Novosibirsk region. And this is the last public event to date, in which the prime minister personally took part.
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev His disappearance for such a long period gave rise to speculations about the resignation of the second person in the state. The most logical and harmless version that Dmitry Anatolyevich is on vacation has not been confirmed.
There is evidence that his work schedule for the period from 14 to 24 August is quite tight, and there were important events and meetings that had to be canceled.
Thus, the last meeting of the Security Council, held by the President on 22 August, took place without the participation of the prime minister. The permanent members of this body, ministers and heads of structures directly related to state security issues met in Sochi. The Prime Minister, contrary to usual, was not among them; he did not participate in the discussion of the current socio-economic situation, the state of Russian-American relations and the situation in Syria.
Dmitry Medvedev It is interesting. One of Medvedev's last "outings" was an official visit to Kamchatka, during which he held a meeting of the regional commission and visited a beach with black volcanic sand.
A can of sand, on which the prime minister allegedly walked, was put up by one of the residents of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky at an online auction for 100 thousand rubles.
Short May Resignation
This is not the first time that the topic of the resignation of the current prime minister and his government has been raised. The message that Putin dismissed Medvedev, which appeared on one of the Internet news portals on April 1, 2018, raised doubts due to the publication date. Nevertheless, many readers did not take it as a joke at all, but replied with comments in the style of "it's high time!"
The number of negative political assets is growing at an unplanned rate.
Let's start, however, with the first. Has Medvedev really become a burden on the regime?
There is no doubt about that. The poll of the Levada Center, which worried him (45% of respondents were for the resignation, 33% were against) in all basic parameters, including the layouts of answers to other questions, is very close to information from the weekly reports of the Kremlin-based FOM. All "Medvedev" indicators there are deteriorating with each new measurement, and the share of those who believe that the prime minister is "doing poorly in his post" since mid-April exceeds the number of those who think that "is good."
Medvedev has never been perceived by our public as an independent figure. He shone with reflected light, and fluctuations in his popularity indices have always followed those in Putin's. Perhaps this is still the case. Putin's indices are also declining. But they still remain in the positive zone, while the Medvedevskys have moved into the negative zone.
The prime minister's reaction to the video "He's not Dimon for you" confirmed his lack of any political qualifications and simply the ability to take a punch. Until recently, the universal helplessness of the head of government created an atmosphere of comfort for Putin, but today it is desirable that the people of his circle show the people other qualities. There is not the slightest hope that Medvedev will get them. It has become an obvious political burden, which, with a strong desire, can, of course, be carried further, but it would be more logical to throw it off your shoulders.
However, the logic of the highest decisions cannot be so straightforward.
Who should replace Medvedev? Another dummy person? But premieres of the caliber of Mikhail Fradkov looked like something normal in completely different times. The reaction from below, and not only from below, to someone strange and weak is now completely unpredictable, and instead of relaxation, it can also increase the tension.
And the elevation to the premiere of a person perceived as a strong figure is too similar to the appointment of an heir. So, at least, this will be understood and even, perhaps, interpreted as the most important strategic decision of Putin over the past ten years. Also risky and does not increase comfort.
You can, of course, choose the golden mean, and put the first minister of some technocrat, programmed for so-called unpopular measures, in order to then please the people with his shameful exile. But events can easily get out of hand. The system is rusted and liable to crumble from any shake.
The fate of the so-called Medvedev government is no less important. "So-called" because it is not one structure, but several departmental alliances, and they are not at all led by Medvedev, but partly by Putin, and partly they operate in an autonomous mode - both at their own discretion and in the interests of competing lobbying teams.
But while the prime minister is only a symbol of government, his political disappearance would call into question all these entanglements of ambition, established governance practices, and hard-won balances.
For example, does Putin want the “economic bloc” to fall (the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development and related departments, which, albeit with a creak, but work in conjunction with the Central Bank, which is nominally not part of the government)? After all, he is ideologically close to them, albeit not on all points. It is not for nothing that experts in economic history recognize Putin as a spontaneous adherent of mercantilism. There was such a doctrine in past centuries, which prescribed accumulating cash reserves in the treasury, preventing the import of goods, relying on state business and not allowing large expenditures to exceed income.
The ideas of the "economic bloc" about what it would be desirable to do are somewhat more sophisticated, but in fact they are pursuing just such a course. Which is liked by the leader, but is not particularly popular in court circles, where many tycoons feel left out, and at the same time annoys the people more and more, since the burden of the austerity regime has shifted onto him.
They say that "United Russia" at May Day events will praise Putin, expressively keeping silent about Medvedev and the government, and state trade unions working with her will defame the "economic bloc". The suspended state of the prime minister is already being used by the fighters for tidbits in the executive branch without any signal from above.
Raising this insignificant person in ancient times, Vladimir Putin, of course, did not assume that the system would spontaneously turn him into its most important unit, the replacement of which promises so many problems, and moreover at the most inopportune time.
Sergey Shelin
A series of polls in the capital showed that Muscovites do not support Prime Minister Medvedev, they believe it is time for him to leave, but they do not believe that the "sleeping prime minister" will be dismissed.
Dmitry Medvedev became the most discussed Russian politician of the last month. First, it was dismantled for parts in an anti-corruption investigation, then it did not appear at a meeting between the president and the government on March 14. Then Vladimir Putin explained Medvedev's absence by the flu, and on March 23, Dmitry Anatolyevich himself, at a meeting with entrepreneurs, suddenly denied his illness, saying: “And I was not sick " ... To check how all these events influenced the attitude of the population towards the second person in the state, activists conducted a series of polls on the streets of Moscow and on the Internet.
Awaiting resignation
The poll showed that 88% of readers do not support the activities of the prime minister and insist on resignation. Most likely, such a high percentage is associated not only with the ineffective activities of Medvedev and the government, but also with the previously publishedinvestigation of luxury real estate , which, through the intermediary of various funds, belongs to Dmitry Medvedev.
There will be no resignation
But you shouldn't hope for resignation - such a conclusion can be drawn from the resultsanother survey .
Only 40% of respondents are sure that Dmitry Medvedev will be "asked" to vacate his seat in the near future. The majority (54%) are convinced that the prime minister will remain in his place.
Citizens are afraid to openly criticize Prime Minister Medvedev
Activists took to the streets of Moscow to hear the opinions of ordinary people. Those who are ready to openly speak out for the resignation of the prime minister turned out to be 2 times less.
People are outraged by the irresponsibility and lack of initiative of the second person of the state.
“Medvedev says a lot, but he doesn't. At his level, "Vova" seems completely different - a cut above. Therefore, I am for Medvedev's resignation ",- the 48-year-old worker impulsively shared his opinion George. "I am a working pensioner, and Medvedev did not index my pension," outraged gray-haired Vitaly Alexandrovich. "Medvedev is primarily responsible for the economic crisis,"- turning around, the girl throws the phrase Hope.
Yelena, a 38-year-old Muscovite, believes that Medved's main weakness is that he will never be perceived as an independent politician. “This is a puppet figure, and someone is sitting and leading behind him. Therefore, Medvedev takes the place that a more proactive and active person could have, ”- shared her opinion Elena.
Let the swamp, but its own
Often, the reason for the desire of Muscovites to maintain the current status quo is simply the fear of change or the belief that nothing will change, regardless of who takes Medvedev's place.
“I'm afraid of changes,” one of the Muscovites expressed a phobia. “All the same, everything will be the same. Then you have to change everyone. It makes no sense to change Medvedev alone, ”- unexpectedly and revolutionary, but in a calm tone, a woman of age declares. “It won't be better! In our century we have seen many, each sweeping in his own way, ”says another opponent of resignation, the janitor Maria Sergeevna.
Researcher shook society
A film about the prime minister's corruption schemes undermined Medvedev's image, primarily in the eyes of the "liberal public," showing that the prime minister is not as clean as many thought of him. Moreover, the concept “The general public” is rather arbitrary, since the film was watched by only 10 million people, which is not much on a national scale.
The expert does not expect Medvedev's resignation, because this is only Vladimir Putin's decision, "and Putin never makes a decision under someone's pressure."
Earlier, public figures and politicians were in favor of investigating the traces of the data collected by FBK. So dstate Duma deputy from the Communist Party Valery Rashkin sent request Chairman of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation Alexander Bastrykin, the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation Yuri Chaika, to the heads of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSB with the requirement to check the information about the real estate of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The parliamentarian announced this in his
It is believed that the resignation of the government after the elections is a purely procedural phenomenon. Russians often don't even notice it.
According to the law, the newly-elected president submits the candidacy of the prime minister to the State Duma within 2 weeks after taking office. After approval, the Prime Minister within a week submits to the head of state proposals on the structure of federal executive bodies, and also proposes candidates for the posts of deputy prime minister and federal ministers.
Political analysts believe that such a legislative loophole would be useful for the new term of Vladimir Putin if he again becomes president in the March elections. Therefore, changes in the government, in their opinion, are inevitable. However, their scale is still difficult to assess.
By the way, sociologists are also talking about the same, who have long recorded in society a negative attitude towards the government, in particular towards the prime minister.
“Society needs changes. A number of studies show that all the negativity that Russian residents have regarding the situation inside the country and in domestic politics is often associated with the figure of the prime minister. So from this point of view, the resignation of the government and the prime minister will make some sense, "- said the sociologist Alexey Novikov.
The main task of such changes is the fight against stagnation, including the rotation of Putin's “friends” under his patronage, the so-called “Politburo 2.0”, in which the inter-clan struggle could lead to a serious crisis in the country.
“The results of this inter-clan struggle cannot be predicted, since they depend not only on the objective balance of forces, but also on the personal attitude of Putin himself towards certain characters. On the other hand, he is interested both in maintaining balance and in expanding the Politburo 2.0. This will dictate possible changes in the government, ”the political scientist noted. Sergey Komaritsyn.
Changes can be dictated by the course taken for rejuvenation. However, one should not expect new "bright" politicians, experts are sure. Most likely, these will be the same technocrats who unquestioningly carry out the orders of the president and easily fit into the vertical of power.
“The general course of personnel policy in the new government will most likely be the same as -“ young technocrats ”will appear. At the same time, everyone does not understand very well who these "technocrats" are? There are some meanings that are very beneficial from the point of view of propaganda - focus on tasks, manufacturability, lack of clan ties. But the authorities did not give an exact definition, ”the political scientist said. Victor Poturemsky.
For Russians themselves, a change of government can carry a positive function and hope that the head of state will take a course not on foreign policy, but on domestic one, says sociologist Alexei Novikov.
As for the specific person of Dmitry Medvedev as Prime Minister, here experts are sure that no scandals around his personality will be able to influence Putin's decision. The president will be guided by personal disposition even to the detriment of the common cause, political analysts are sure.
“Medvedev is a very weak prime minister. But here the question is about obligations, general biography and personal relationships. If Medvedev really wants to stay in the prime minister's chair, Putin will leave him, despite the fact that it hurts the business. In a demonstration - in the sense of early resignation before the elections - Putin is not very interested; she doesn't really add anything to him. But it can cause a little psychological trauma to Medvedev. Putin will not offend Medvedev, "- said the political scientist Sergey Komaritsyn.
We cannot exclude the fact that, in fact, the prime minister is a convenient "whipping boy", on whom all the popular negativity is poured. And Dmitry Medvedev, experts are sure, is coping with this role very well. In this regard, it would be irrational to reform the government and subordinate directly to the president, although there has been a lot of talk about this scenario lately.
“If the question is about whether he can do it technically, then yes, probably he can. If the question is about whether it is worth doing, then most likely not. Because in this case, all responsibility for what is happening in the country will be transferred to him and, accordingly, all the negativity of voters, which now concerns the person of Medvedev, will be transferred to the head of state, ”the sociologist emphasized Alexey Novikov.
“Medvedev is extremely convenient as a lightning rod through which a protest against the federal government leaves. The model is well-established. There are no external reasons for changing it yet. I think it will remain after the elections. There are scenarios that may affect his departure following the March elections, but so far these scenarios are unlikely, "the political scientist noted. Victor Poturemsky.
As one of these possible scenarios, the media call the merger of the Supreme and Constitutional Courts. If the reform takes place, it is likely that Medvedev will head the "super court". However, experts are sure that for him in this case, little will change.
“The status problem for Medvedev is only of psychological significance. His real position under Putin will remain what it is now, regardless of his position, "the political scientist noted. Sergey Komaritsyn.
Little will change in the post of Prime Minister. According to experts, another prime minister will not differ much from the previous one.
Thus, it is unlikely that a woman will become prime minister, despite the fact that Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko and Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina are increasingly appearing in the federal media in connection with this topic.
One should also not expect that a person with a bright political coloring will come to the Russian government. According to Krasnoyarsk political scientists, this can happen only in one case.
“For 18 years we had“ technical ”premieres (during the“ tandem ”period - the“ technical ”president). Why should this change? When Putin starts thinking about a successor, then a person with different characteristics will appear, "the political scientist says. Sergey Komaritsyn.
If, for various reasons, it will nevertheless be a question of replacing Medvedev, then a politician from Krasnoyarsk could well take his post.
“Of the current composition of the government, the most prepared for such a role is our fellow countryman Alexander Novak. He has all the prerequisites for this - biography, work at the level of a large corporation, region, federal ministries, experience, knowledge, abilities, international fame, the scale of the current tasks, closeness and - which is very important - in his current capacity he is an unconditional nominee of Putin " , - suggested the political scientist Sergey Komaritsyn.
Changes may also take place in the ruling United Russia party. It is already known that it will be rebranded. It is possible that the leadership can also change. The need for these changes was loudly announced by Putin's self-nomination in the elections.
“If we understand this statement in the mainstream of public political communication, then it means, in essence, a simple thing: United Russia does not provide the incumbent president with a significant advantage in the elections. Actually, everything that follows after that is rebranding. You can try to follow the logic further - this, in turn, may mean that the party under the existing leadership does not solve the tasks assigned to it, ”said the sociologist Alexey Novikov.
However, according to experts, not only United Russia needs such a rebranding, but the entire party system of the country.
“What is happening now at the presidential elections shows a deep crisis in which literally all political parties have found themselves. We built and built the party system, developed it in order to get a shortage of party candidates, replacements, non-participation in the main elections of the country. Plus Putin's self-nomination. The need for party system reforms and party rebranding is overripe and inevitable, ”the political scientist said. Victor Poturemsky.
Obviously, there is no need to wait for a "reset" of the authorities after the elections: rather, it will be re-elections. But it is also obvious, experts say, that first of all the old new president will have to figure out what internal political tasks the government will solve and with the help of what. However, we can safely say that after the elections, the dynamics of political and economic events in the country will increase significantly.
Photo: Aleksander Khitrov, Dmitry Medvedev, Reuters, Dmitry Koshcheev, Kremlin
Correspondent Maksim Shevchenko is convinced that the vast majority of Russians at the moment are in favor of Dmitry Medvedev's resignation.
Simply because this person has proved that he will never act in the interests of the people.
In principle, they knew about it and so, but the pension reform has consolidated this worldview, perhaps, forever. The indicator of Medvedev's trust is 7%, which directly states: he does not trust Medvedev.
Will Medvedev Resign?
Of course, Medvedev himself does not intend to resign, but at the same time it should be noted that the media activity of this person has decreased significantly. The press secretary left him, and the newest press secretary proposed to socially reduce media activity.
That is, of course, Dmitry Medvedev is not considered a spokesman for public interests, and therefore, in practice, he is only a man of destiny, who has almost the right to determine the future of the Russian Federation.
Moreover, in this regard, Medvedev does not have any success.
Not one. That is, of course, there are practically people ( a social being with reason and consciousness, as well as a subject of socio-historical activity and culture) want the government to be headed by someone who, of course, thinks a little about the development of the Russian Federation and about state interests.
Medvedev's results
If we want to realize the effectiveness of Medvedev, then we must examine specifically the projects for which Medvedev was responsible. Let's start with the innovations.
This was the main motto during Medvedev's presidency. What are the results of the campaign for the development of innovations in the Russian Federation? And the results are as follows: Skolkovo and Rusnano appeared. Two structures, which are completely unprofitable for the Russian Federation, where they send "exiled" government bureaucrats. For example, Chubais or Dvorkovich.
Of course, you can also remember the May decrees. Though the past, even today. Medvedev takes on the task of "improving people's lives", but it turns out just like Chernomyrdin's: "they wanted the best - it turned out as always."
Why do we need such a person at the head of the government, especially if he has substantiated personal inefficiency in practice? The logical conclusions lead to the fact that resignation of Medvedev - rational decision.
Alas, in this case it does not work, simply because the work is determined by the president's personal attitude towards this or that person, and not the efficiency of his work.
In our country, alas, ignorant people are often responsible for certain areas to which they have never had a relationship.
Medvedev - an expert on Roman law - is for the government of the Russian Federation, and the correspondent Rogozin is outright for the entire galactic sphere.