Election of the heads of the subjects of the Russian Federation. Direct speech
Investments in the governor's office are not paying off now, but it is an excellent career springboard
On September 10, 2017, the elections of governors will be held in 16 regions of the Russian Federation. And almost nowhere is there any intrigue - the acting interim head of the region must win. How did it happen that under Sergei Kiriyenko, who was considered the main liberal in the Presidential Administration, the democratic procedure turned into a purely technical act?
Alas, it seems that the elections in Russia, in principle, have lost their popularity as a means of the struggle for power. And the power itself has ceased to interest many of those who previously fought so passionately for it. First of all, we are talking about those who considered positions of power as a tool for making a profit. Investments in the governor's office, and even more so in a State Duma deputy, are unprofitable today. How do I get my campaign investments back? If there are no specific lobbying interests, then any high state position in our time can only become a burden. The status of a deputy no longer gives immunity, and the post of governor no longer gives a monopoly on regional business. An example is the governor of the Irkutsk region Sergey Levchenko, who, having been elected in the protest region, implements the federal target program and the programs of the federal government, and is much more successful than his predecessor from United Russia. The secret is simple, in the current situation Levchenko has no time for political struggle. He is a kind of technocrat who must implement the presidential programs, but at the same time, the demand from him is higher than from the young governors loyal to the Kremlin.
Some of those who are to be elected this year to the post of the head of the region are not at all adapted to real political life. Nevertheless, both the President and the governors must go through this rite, let's call it "acceptance by the population." Its essence is simple: you need to prove your fighting qualities, drive your program through the prism of opposition criticism, and gather a weighty support group. Yes, holding elections without an obvious choice is a difficult task, but at the same time, the ritual itself is designed to solve a lot of problems accumulated in society.
Take, for example, the Republic of Buryatia. There, Acting Governor Alexei Tsydenov refused to fight his main rival communist Vyacheslav Markhaev. The candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation was removed during the passage of the municipal filter, that is, the candidate from the government did not accept the battle not only from a strong rival, but also from the part of the elites standing behind him. What can this be fraught with? Firstly, next year elections to the People's Khural will be held in Buryatia and the communists can seriously increase their presence in the local parliament. After all, now they are backed not only by offended local elites, but also offended voters, whom instead of the Communist Party they tried to slip the fake party “Communists of Russia” into their hands.
The situation is similar in other regions with weak leaders. In the same Sverdlovsk region, Acting Governor Yevgeny Kuyvashev went to all the tricks to clean up the political field and, most likely, next year he will receive a reaction to his actions. At the same elections to the City Duma of Yekaterinburg. The head of the Republic of Karelia Artur Parfenchikov also tried to come to an agreement with all the participants in the political process, from the nominated candidates (some of which were withdrawn in his favor) to real rivals like Irina Petelyaeva from Fair Russia. Yes, a clever game will allow him to win the elections, but how does such a weak governor intend to fight the political opposition of Karelia in the future? There are rumors that Parfenchikov is one of the candidates for the post of Prosecutor General of Russia, but will he be ready to take this position if he cannot cope with the problems “on the ground”?
Other governors have similar problems, whose current positions are seen as career stepping stones. We are talking about the Acting Governor of the Perm Territory Maxim Reshetnikov and the Acting Head of Udmurtia Alexander Brechalov. Their main task is to prove themselves in solving the accumulated problems, to become “breeders” among the local elites, which are quite compromised in both regions. But will the governors, whose elections were held according to the standard scheme of a “dry turnout” and a cleared field, be able to do this? The same Reshetnikov is elected in Perm by agreement with the main local opposition leader Dmitry Skrivanov. Will he then be able to behave independently of the agreements with this third force? The same governor of the Yaroslavl Region, Dmitry Mironov, being a candidate with a generally positive rating, takes on a certain burden in coordination with the local elites of the current city government of Yaroslavl, headed by Mayor Sleptsov. Those. All Sleptsov's mistakes will henceforth be projected onto the incumbent governor, who already wins only in agreement with the rival from Fair Russia, Anatoly Greshevnikov, who refused to participate in the elections. As, incidentally, in Mari El, where the Communist Party of the Russian Federation did not at all begin to nominate its candidate against the "United Russia party" Alexander Evstifeev, so that he would not accidentally defeat the inexperienced acting governor. For this, the communist candidate Sergei Mamaev was allowed to fight in the Kirov region with Igor Vasiliev, so that Vyatka can be ranked as one of the most competitive regions in Russia.
The situation is somewhat better for those heads of regions who structured their own electoral campaigns. In the same Sevastopol, Dmitry Ovsyannikov began a very difficult campaign, which he could well lose. But along the way, he adjusted many of his positions, thereby trying to justify his position in front of the local population. Given the protest status of Sevastopol, this was not easy to achieve. As, however, the young governors of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov and the Novgorod region Andrey Nikitin, who managed to extract a certain profit from their youth. More precisely, they formulated some ideas that fit well into existing development concepts and can be implemented in collaboration with existing elite groups. Those. the tension in the elites was removed by involving them in the electoral processes at the campaign stage. These include the more experienced governor of the "second term" Sergei Zhvachkin (Tomsk region), who, despite a quiet campaign, managed to resolve major issues at the elite level and is now preparing to win the elections in a quiet struggle.
The most stable are the current governors - Mordovia (Vladimir Volkov), Belgorod region (Evgeny Savchenko) and Saratov (Valery Radaev). Everything should go according to the standard scenario - an average high turnout (35-45%) and a high percentage of votes for the main candidate. The same Savchenko may well get a result close to 80-90%. The second can be Volkov (70-80%), and the third Radaev (60-70%). However, these impressive results do not address the issue of competition within local elites. For example, who will nevertheless act as Savchenko's successor in the upcoming elections? Or who can resist Volkov in Mordovia if his chief lobbyist Merkushkin leaves the post of governor of the Samara region?
As we can see, the upcoming elections raise more questions than answers. And chief among them, what will the elections without choice lead to? Will the undercover squabble of local elites be exacerbated? - undoubtedly. Will this state of affairs find a way out in the upcoming campaigns at the municipal and regional levels? - definitely. Perhaps even in the presidential office - after all, many local forces will want to spoil the authority of the newly elected governors by helping to reduce the results of the upcoming presidential campaign. After all, it is under the brand of Putin that young and little-known technocrats are elected, who will become targets of attacks by local elites in the coming years. Such a "quiet confrontation" between federal and local groups may well lead to the revival of a third force - Russian federalism, the need for which more and more experts have spoken about in recent years.
TASS-DOSSIER. On September 10, 2017, Russia will host a single voting day - the legally established date for elections at various levels.
Direct elections of heads of regions will be held in 16 constituent entities of the Federation, in six - deputies of regional legislative bodies. In addition, in Adygea, the head of the region will be elected by the deputies of the republican parliament. A total of about 5.8 thousand elections at various levels will take place across Russia, including 230 local referendums. On the same day, by-elections of State Duma deputies will be held in two constituencies.
Currently, the direct election procedure is used in 75 Russian regions. The heads of the other ten subjects of the Federation - the republics of Adygea, Dagestan, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Crimea, the Kabardino-Balkarian and Karachay-Cherkess Republics, as well as the Khanty-Mansiysk, Yamalo-Nenets and Nenets autonomous districts - are elected by local parliaments.
Procedure for electing heads of regions
Elections of the highest officials of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are held in accordance with the federal laws "On basic guarantees of electoral rights and the right to participate in a referendum of citizens of the Russian Federation", "On political parties", "On general principles of organization of legislative (representative) and executive bodies of state power of constituent entities Of the Russian Federation ", as well as the statutes (constitutions) of the regions and local laws on elections.
The head of the region is elected by the citizens of the Russian Federation residing in the territory of the given subject, or by the deputies of the local parliament for a period not exceeding five years and cannot hold office for more than two consecutive terms. In this case, the first is the term for which the governor was elected after the entry into force of the law on the return of direct elections on June 1, 2012. The term of office of the head of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation is determined by the charter of the region and is calculated from the date of taking office.
The head of the subject, who has been exercising his powers for at least one year, may voluntarily resign in order to, with the consent of the head of state, participate in the gubernatorial elections for a new term. Elections are held on a single voting day on the basis of universal, equal and direct suffrage by secret ballot.
Requirements for candidates
A candidate for governor can be a citizen of Russia who has reached the age of 30, has a passive electoral right and does not have citizenship of another state. Applicants nominated by political parties, as well as self-nominated candidates (if provided for by the regional legislation) can run for the post of head of the region.
To register, candidates need to collect signatures from 5% to 10% of municipal deputies and heads of municipalities (the so-called municipal filter established by regional legislation). Moreover, each deputy can sign only for one candidate. Self-nominated candidates also need to collect in their support from 0.5% to 2% of signatures of voters.
During the election campaign, a candidate for the post of head of the region shall nominate three candidates for the post of a member of the Federation Council. If he is elected as the head of a constituent entity of the Federation, one of his proposed candidates will take the place of a senator in the upper house of the Russian parliament from the executive branch of the region.
Determination of election results
A candidate who has received in his support more than 50% of the votes cast who took part in the voting is considered elected to the post of head of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. There is no turnout threshold.
In the case when the head of the region is elected by the deputies of the local legislative body, the candidate for whom the majority of the members of the regional parliament voted is considered elected.
One of the main consequences of the Beslan tragedy, the 12th anniversary of which was recalled these days, was the cancellation of direct governor elections in Russia. On September 13, 2004, President Putin issued a statement that "the highest officials of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation should be elected by the legislative assemblies of the territories on the proposal of the head of state."
The motivation that was voiced - that this is being done “for the purpose of the consistent development of federalism” looked like an open mockery of common sense. In fact, this meant exactly the opposite - the complete elimination of federal relations in Russia, their replacement by a total “vertical of power”.
Most of the citizens who still retained a federalist mindset then opposed this initiative. Indeed, it was very difficult to see a logical connection between the fight against terrorism and the need to abolish gubernatorial elections. If George W. Bush, after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, had suddenly decided to "cancel" the election of governors in the United States, he would most likely have lost his presidency himself. Because a real federation would not tolerate such arbitrariness.
However, in Russia, the federation was initially built according to the imperial model. Unlike the United States, where the states agreed on federal relations among themselves, in Russia the subjects were the "center" and "regions". This created the preconditions for the subsequent centralization of power, when the very word "federation" remained only nominal.
The appointment of governors has led to a radical alienation of the regional authorities from the interests of local residents.
If in the 1990s one or another governor could not ignore the opinions of voters, knowing that if they were ignored, he would be "rolled" in the next elections, then after 2004 the heads of the regions have only one voter - sitting in the Kremlin. And the effectiveness of regional policy began to be assessed based on the implementation of its directives, and not on the requests of the local population.
For example, Sergey Katanandov was elected the head of the Republic of Karelia in 1998 and served in this position for two four-year terms - 1998-2002 and 2002-2006. However, in 2006 he was reappointed for a third term, although his rating was already tending to zero - due to a number of economic mistakes that led to a drop in the standard of living in the republic. However, from the moment of his appointment, he was interested only in the instructions on the “vertical”, and not in the demands of citizens. A similar situation was observed in other regions - the principle of "two terms" adopted in the 1990s with the introduction of the appointment of governors was actually canceled.
Subsequently, the governors of Karelia were appointed officials who had no biographical relationship to the republic at all. These are Petersburgers Andrey Nelidov (2010-2012) and Alexander Khudilainen (since 2012). In local slang, they were nicknamed "Varangians", each of whom brought a team of his fellow countrymen and seated them in leadership positions. And again, this is not only a Karelian, but an all-Russian phenomenon. For example, Evgeny Kuyvashev from Tyumen today heads the Sverdlovsk region, and vice versa, Viktor Basargin from Sverdlovsk runs the Perm region.
All three aforementioned governors (Khudilainen, Kuyvashev, Basargin) were appointed to their posts in May 2012 when President Putin entered his third term. Although back in December 2011, then-President Medvedev promised to return the gubernatorial elections. This law came into force on June 1, 2012, but the governors appointed by Putin actually bypassed it and have never voted for elections since.
The practice of appointing rather than electing heads of regions continues to this day.
So, in July of this year, the acting governor of the Kaliningrad region, Vladimir Putin, appointed his former bodyguard Yevgeny Zinichev. But he does not go to the September elections - so the appointment can again be regarded as "indefinite". This situation makes the governor's legitimacy itself rather vague.
Some analysts believe that the mass “white tape” protests of 2011-2012 forced the authorities to accept the return of gubernatorial elections. But be that as it may, these "returned" elections were already fundamentally different from those that took place in all subjects of the federation in the period 1996-2004, in the direction of narrowing the opportunities for potential candidates. So, according to the 2012 law, a candidate for governor could only be nominated by political parties (only the Yaroslavl Regional Duma left the option of self-nomination at that time), and also must pass the “municipal filter”, collecting up to 10% of the signatures of city and district deputies of their region.
Since practically all local legislative assemblies of the Russian Federation are dominated by the United Russia party, of course, this provided it with an advantage when nominating candidates for governor. In addition, this law indicated: "The President of the Russian Federation, on his own initiative, may hold consultations with political parties nominating candidates for the post of the highest official of the subject of the Russian Federation." Given the weight of the presidential opinion in Russia, these "consultations" are perceived as recommendations and, in fact, just a different format for the same appointment of governors.
Less than a year has passed since the "return" of the gubernatorial elections, when in April 2013 Vladimir Putin introduced an amendment to this law that regional legislative assemblies can replace the national elections of the head of the region with a vote in the local parliament on the proposal of the president. That is, to literally return to the same assignability. This amendment was supported by the Caucasian republics - Dagestan, Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkessia and North Ossetia.
On a single voting day, September 18, 2016, according to this model, the heads of North Ossetia Vyacheslav Bitarov and Karachay-Cherkessia Rashid Temrezov will be elected (or, more precisely, appointed). Currently, both of them are the interim heads of their regions, appointed by the President of the Russian Federation, and the likelihood of victory of some other candidates is extremely unlikely.
By the way, it is this model - where the head of the region is not elected in a general election, but by a vote of the local legislative assembly - that Crimea and Sevastopol, “reunited with Russia,” have adopted.
At the same time, interestingly enough, Chechnya has retained the universal electivity of its head. It is no coincidence that President Putin called her "an example of federalism." True, predicting the outcome of the elections in this republic on September 18, it makes sense to discuss only about 90 percent with which units will Ramzan Kadyrov gain?
In addition to Chechnya, general governor elections this year will be held in six more constituent entities of the Russian Federation - the republics of Komi and Tyva, in the Tver, Tula, Ulyanovsk regions and the Trans-Baikal Territory. Although the supposed record of Kadyrov is unlikely to be beaten there, there is no reason to expect any surprises either.
All the main candidates in these regions, as one, are currently acting governor, are members of the United Russia party and actively use its administrative and propaganda resources.
For example, in the Komi Republic, the main contender for the governor's post is Sergei Gaplikov. This is a typical "Varangian", which in 2004-2010. was the chairman of the Council of Ministers of Chuvashia, and in 2011-2014. headed the state corporation Olympstroy, which built Olympic facilities in Sochi. He was appointed to act as the head of Komi in September 2015, after the arrest of the former governor, Vyacheslav Gaizer. It was a rather high-profile case, after which the local political elites apparently lost their political ambitions for a long time.
In the Tula region, where the former adjutant of Putin, General Andrei Dyumin, is nominated, also practically no one has doubts about his victory. In the eyes of regional elites and voters, his proximity to the president obviously surpasses his “non-local” origin (Dyumin is biographically in no way connected with Tula - he was born in Kursk, studied in Voronezh, and then served in Moscow).
Another candidate for governor of the Tver region, Igor Rudenya, is a Varyag, a former federal agro-industrial official. For what reasons the Muscovite was appointed to lead the Tverites - only the Kremlin knows. But he also has no serious opponents there - in this area, even the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Vadim Soloviev, who had become famous for his fight with Pokémon, was removed from the gubernatorial elections.
Thus, Natalya Zhdanova, a candidate for governor of the Trans-Baikal Territory, is a local native. And this circumstance is likely to play in her favor, given that the previous governor, "Varangian" Konstantin Ilkovsky in February of this year was dismissed from his post for mistakes in social policy - wage arrears and the failure of the program to resettle residents from hazardous housing.
A local native is also a candidate for the post of head of the Republic of Tuva, Sholban Kara-ool, who has been running the region since 2007. But in this republic, where the titular nation is 82%, the victory of any "Varangian" would be impossible in principle.
The head of the Ulyanovsk region, Sergei Morozov, was first elected to his post in 2004 - even during free gubernatorial elections. But then he was reappointed for the next two terms by Presidents Putin and Medvedev. His next nomination testifies to the fact that this former policeman managed to create an appropriate "stability" in his area, in which all opposition candidates (even from Yabloko and more leftist than the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, "Communists of Russia") are freely registered, but their chances are not taken seriously.
Despite the fact that sociologists record a fall in the rating of the ruling party, it still significantly surpasses the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and the "Fair Russia", whose candidates also participate in the gubernatorial elections. But from "Parnas" or "Yabloko", which could score points due to harsh opposition rhetoric, this year only "Yabloko" Oleg Goryachev, the son of the former governor of the Ulyanovsk region back in the 1990s, managed to be promoted to governor. But he, according to local media reports, "is known for his loyalty to the current government." Apparently, not so loyal candidates from these parties in other regions did not pass the "municipal filter" or the election commissions discovered some other violations in them ...
Critics of free, “unfiltered” gubernatorial elections point out that in the 1990s they often led only to the emergence of “regional barons” who turned the subjects of the Russian Federation into their own “fiefdoms”, with the overt domination of their administrative and business groups. However, overcoming the folding of these opaque structures was not necessary by the elimination of federalism, but, on the contrary, by its full-fledged development.
For example, regional parliaments in post-Soviet Russia that can limit the power of governors have never played a particularly significant role. This reflects the personalistic Russian tradition, when only the “first person” is vested with supreme powers, and the role of the regional civil society is minimal. Regional political parties that freely exist in European countries are prohibited in Russia - it is generally accepted that they are striving for some kind of "separatism." Although, for example, the regional parties of the EU countries do not at all ruin it, but on the contrary, and cooperate with each other in the European Parliament.
But in Russia, this federalist experience is considered dangerous. Therefore, our regional parliaments (and this year elections will take place in 39 of them) have been and will remain only reduced clones of the State Duma
The arrest of the governor of the Sakhalin Oblast again stirred up the interest of the general public in the question of how people in Russia become heads of regions, what administrative and personal qualities, vertical and horizontal ties must be possessed for this, who and why promotes people to this post
The arrest of the governor of the Sakhalin Oblast again stirred up the interest of the general public in the question of how people in Russia become the heads of regions, what administrative and personal qualities, vertical and horizontal connections one must possess for this, who and why promotes people to this post, etc. For example, the following question is curious: receiving multi-million dollar bribes is an innate habit Khoroshavin or acquired by him during his work in a high position? And in general, - can an ordinary citizen of Russia become a governor and also acquire some habits?
The owner of the pen worth 36 million rubles Governor Khoroshavin
I answer right away - maybe. But subject to certain conditions and strict adherence to the instructions developed by "RR" for candidates for this post.
Vladimir Putin appoints
At the same time, it is necessary to clearly understand that, no matter what they say, in modern Russia, the heads of regions are appointed by the president, at the moment Vladimir Putin... It is he who appoints, even if later they are also “elected”. According to the CEC, gubernatorial elections this year are to be held in 11 regions of Russia: Mari El, Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Bryansk, Kaliningrad, Kaluga, Kemerovo, Penza, Rostov, Tambov and Jewish autonomous regions. But, apparently, this list is far from definitive. Since a vacancy has already been formed on Sakhalin, they say that in some other regions, for example, in the Sverdlovsk region, the Republic of Karelia, an early change of leadership is possible. It is also likely that some heads of regions will want, as was the case last year, to go to early elections. There is where to dare.
According to Federal Law No. 40, any Russian citizen can become a governor if he wins in equal and direct elections by secret ballot. This law was signed on May 2, 2012 Dmitry Medvedev - then formally still the president, although Vladimir Putin had already been elected in the March presidential elections, and there were only a few days left before his inauguration. Nevertheless, on June 1, 2012, this law came into force and, it seems, is still in effect, although with some significant amendments.
According to this "Medvedev" law, candidates for the post of governor are nominated by political parties, while a political party has the right to nominate a member of this political party or a non-party citizen. The nomination of a candidate by way of self-nomination may be provided for by the law of the subject of the Russian Federation. The President of the Russian Federation, on his own initiative, may hold consultations with political parties and self-nominated candidates.
Candidates must be supported by 5 to 10 percent of deputies
In the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, candidates must be supported by 5 to 10 percent of deputies of representative bodies of municipalities and heads of municipalities elected in elections, including 5 to 10 percent of deputies of representative bodies of municipal districts and urban districts and heads of municipal districts elected in elections and urban districts. In cities of federal significance, candidates must also be supported by 5 to 10 percent of deputies of representative bodies of intracity municipalities and heads of intracity municipalities elected at elections. In this case, the candidate must receive support in at least three quarters, respectively, of municipal districts and urban districts, intracity municipalities. A deputy of a representative body of a municipality or a head of a municipality elected at an election may support only one candidate nominated by any political party, or by way of self-nomination.
A candidate nominated by self-nomination, in addition to receiving this support, must collect from 0.5 percent to 2 percent of the signatures of voters registered in the territory of the subject of the Russian Federation.
Municipal filter not so easy to pass
Oksana Dmitrieva, for example, could not
This so-called "municipal filter" is not so easy to pass. For example, a well-known politician, a deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, could not overcome it in the governor's elections in St. Petersburg last year Oksana Dmitrieva... And this despite the fact that she was supported by the parliamentary party "Fair Russia". Therefore, it is difficult for a self-nominated candidate to get into the governor's office, if only because he does not get the minimum number of votes from the deputies. So before becoming a governor, you need to be a member of some of the parties and enlist their support. You can join an existing one or create your own - it's up to you.
You have a small chance of making your way to the governor's office if you live in the Kaliningrad region or Moscow. In these regions, the minimum barrier is five to six percent and the possibility of self-nomination is envisaged.
But it is even better if you are in the so-called "presidential talent pool", which includes potential candidates for high positions in the executive branch, including the region. This reserve is one of the few innovations of Dmitry Medvedev during his short term as president of the country. It began to take shape in 2009 and consists of several levels. This is actually the federal reserve, which includes the so-called "presidential thousand," these are district reserves, these are subject reserves, these are municipal reserves.
The right to recommend candidates for the presidential reserve was granted to officials of the Presidential Administration, members of the government, heads of other federal state bodies and top officials of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
When selecting candidates, modern personnel technologies are used, including personal and professional diagnostics. This "diagnosis" is carried out by very competent services, including the FSB. The applied methods make it possible to determine the level of development of personal and professional resources and the potential of candidates, to formulate recommendations for their possible job assignment.
The Federation Council is both a "personnel reserve" and a "nursing home" of governors
Among the "reservists" are deputies of the State Duma and members of the Federation Council, heads of various levels in federal government bodies, representatives of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities, managers in commercial and non-profit organizations.
The most promising managers are those who are included in the first hundred of the "presidential reserve" - \u200b\u200bthose who are included in it most often become governors. Vladimir Putin, who returned to the presidency in May 2012, clarified the parameters by which the selection is made to this hundred.
The regulation says that the selection of candidates for governors is the responsibility of the head of the presidential administration. In turn, the heads of federal districts recommend potential governors to him. Moreover, proposals are submitted for at least two candidates and no later than three months before the expiration of the term of office of the current governor, and in case of early termination of office - within 10 days. The authority and business reputation of the candidate, public experience, as well as the opinion of public associations of the subject of the federation are taken into account. Public associations, obviously, mean parties. It is also clear that the most points are gained by candidates belonging to parties loyal to the incumbent president.
The nomination proposal shall be accompanied by: a copy of the income declaration, a certificate of the result of preliminary consultations, information or other reference materials (in other words, a dossier), as well as a statement of the candidate's consent, if elected as governor, to terminate activities incompatible with the status (for example, commercial) ...
This is, so to speak, an ideal scheme for selecting candidates for governor, its formal features. In practice, everything happens a little differently.
The last word is always with the president
While the president always has the final say here, the initial stage of candidate selection is very important. Especially in the case when they want him to get into the first hundred, and not into the bulk of the reserve, which is mainly made up of extras.
At the first stage, roughly speaking, everyone works. Starting with the candidate himself, who first indicates his desire, ending with representatives of large party and public organizations, from which he decided to go to the gubernatorial elections. There are groups of influence understandable to everyone - the Presidential Administration, security officials, people close to the highest person (heads of corporations and companies). They can also shape the opinion of a senior person.
It is worth noting that there are always several candidates, and it depends on the candidate himself and on his team who will win in the end.
Many expect someone to call them to Moscow for a conversation
That is, how the opinion of the elites regarding this candidate will be formed.
Many people who want to take the post of head of the region often make the same mistake, the RR expert says: they expect someone to call them to Moscow for a conversation, if not with the chief, then at least with his entourage, and then they will receive cards -Blanche in order to act further, start criticizing the current head of the region and prepare for the elections.
But this happens very rarely, and only in those cases when the candidate is highly desirable for the Kremlin or, again, for those who push him ...
So what does it take to become the head of the region? For example, there is X who wants to become governor. First of all, it is clear that this must be a person with good managerial experience either in production or in the executive branch, and even better, if there is both. Age - up to 65 years. A person should have a team that he trusts - mainly from those who have more than once had to deal with behind-the-scenes agreements, as well as the formation of projects that are interesting to the right people. Relying on a certain curator in Moscow - be it a person from the authorities or from large corporations - is fraught with considerable dangers. Such a curator may simply be guided by mercantile or some other self-interest, and very competently lead the candidate by the nose. Therefore, multidirectional vectors and the right team that scans all this are the key to success.
As they say, everything is possible in Russia.
https: //www.site/2017-02-06/kak_snimayut_i_naznachayut_gubernatorov_v_2017_godu
"They call you and say: there is a good career option, drive up"
How governors are removed and appointed in 2017
The governor of the Perm Territory has resigned, and other replacements of governors are expected to follow. the site spoke with experts and sources to find out: how decisions are made and furnished today on the dismissal of some heads of regions and the appointment of others. It is a complex procedure full of formal and informal agreements.
How governors leave
The decision to resign a particular governor is maturing gradually - unless, of course, we are talking about extreme cases with the arrest of the head of the region, political scientists, former employees of the presidential administration and interlocutors close to the Kremlin tell the site.
“Considering that we have a single voting day in September, the best time for the planned resignation of the governor is February-March. In this case, the interim member has enough time to delve into the regional situation and prepare for the elections. The second "window" of resignations is October-November, immediately after the elections. This period is used if there is a situation in the region in which the new governor needs more time to get used to it. But, of course, there are also extreme situations when the governor comes to a meeting at the presidential administration, and they tell him: “Write a statement,” says an interlocutor close to the presidential administration.
The governor is usually informed about the resignation by the head of the administration or the first deputy head of the administration in charge of the internal political bloc (now these are Anton Vaino and Sergei Kirienko). In the rarest cases, as, for example, with the ex-head of Tatarstan Mintimer Shaimiev, the president personally escorts the retiree (the head of state Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin met with him).
It usually takes a long time to prepare a decision; in some difficult regions it can take up to four months. Sometimes the outgoing governor agrees to drag out this period a little, and then an informal transition period begins in the region, says a former employee of the presidential administration.
“The last resort is the president. Before he makes a decision on resignation, analytical notes, monitoring are prepared for him, the opinion of elite groups is taken into account. Further, the search for successors begins, and when the approvals are completed, someone from the administration's leadership meets with the outgoing governor and agrees to write a letter of resignation of his own free will and the date of publication of this information. At such a last meeting, you can ask for something and resolve the issue of future employment. Usually the outgoing governor is met halfway, ”the source said. If the governor resigns for health reasons, he may be allowed to leave a successor.
There can be many options for a governor to resign, and each time the technical side of the issue will be different, says another source close to the administration.
“When the governors in recent years began to be elected, not appointed, the factor of selectivity began to be taken into account when making a decision,” the source explained. - However, it is not decisive, since if a person has serious support, he will still be sent to the polls and elected. But let's imagine: let's say the governor's term of office expires. The presidential administration sums up the results: they look at socio-economic indicators, acute and chronic elite conflicts, high-profile scandals and accidents, the results of elections in the region, all this is taken into account. At the same time, those interested in resigning or retaining the governor conduct individual work with a variety of persons - from the president to clerks in the administration. The one who is stronger and more agile wins. Formal papers do not play a special role here. "
According to the narrator, the main event of the process is the meeting of the president with the head of the administration or the relevant first deputy, at which a decision is made.
“It happens that the decision on the replacement is made in advance and made personally by the president, for example, this is how the issue of replacing the governor of the Tula region, Vladimir Gruzdev, with Alexei Dyumin, was decided,” the source said. - Then the administration acts simply as the executor of the will of the first person. If the governor is promoted, as, for example, Alexander Khloponin from the Krasnoyarsk Territory, he may also be allowed to appoint a successor, in this case, Lev Kuznetsov. If the governor is removed against his will, succession is not allowed, ”the source says.
“The president receives information from various groups of people,” says political analyst Dmitry Gusev. - There is a political block of the presidential administration, which is supervised by Kiriyenko. They take stock of the governors' work in their posts and propose solutions. The second group is the administration block responsible for interaction with the security forces. They prepare for the president information on the governors in their direction. The third block is the government, which has its own parameters for assessing the work of governors. There are also other groups of influence, including corporate ones, which in one way or another convey their opinion to the president. When the decision to resign is made, the process of technical execution begins, ”Gusev says.
“Governors leave in different ways,” says Vyacheslav Smirnov, head of the Center for Political Sociology. - In exceptional cases, they learn about the resignation from the press. Someone knows they will leave, but do not know the date of leaving. When appointing someone else, it is agreed that it is for one term. A smart governor begins to ask for resignation himself and ahead of time, because it is better to honestly tell the environment that, they say, “I’m not going for a new term, I found a new good job,” than then look fired from work. There is, however, a sign. If the deadline for reappointment comes and you are not summoned to the president, but to the head of the administration, it will probably be about resignation. " The elites believe that a personal meeting with the president shortly before the end of the term of office is, on the contrary, evidence of a good position of the governor.
Political scientist Leonid Davydov believes that the frequency of meetings with the first person does not affect the governor's survival time.
“They say this has been the case in recent years. You are the governor about whom the decision to resign was made, - he says. - First, you will be invited to a conversation by a mid-high-level official, for example, the head of the internal policy department or even his deputy, they will probe the ground in the conversation. Then the curator of the domestic political bloc will call you - he will tell you that there is an opinion that you need to leave, that an even higher boss will talk to you, and note that this position will probably be voiced. The taller boss is the head of the administration or, in cases of resignation of an exceptional heavyweight, it will be the country's first person. You will probably answer that you agree. "
“The decision is made on the basis of a set of factors,” continues Davydov. - For example, there are regular analytical notes that a person can get into. There is an assessment in terms of parameters - for example, the parameter of selectivity, which is taken into account by the current leadership of the administration, engaged primarily in the preparation of the March campaign, ”said Davydov.
How governors come
When the president decides that one or another governor will leave office, the process of selecting a successor begins. It can take from a couple of weeks to a couple of months, unless the president decides alone.
“The presidential administration forms a short-list of proposals for persons, usually two or three candidates remain on it. The president can choose, or he can reject all the proposals. He may suggest someone himself, he may suggest just thinking more. The first person has many communication channels, and after the administration submits its proposals to him, he can request characteristics from the short-list candidates from other people who will support one of the candidates or propose their own. There are interviews, meetings with candidates. This is a complicated process, and yet so that a person rang a call and was notified that he will now be appointed governor - this does not happen, "- says a source close to the presidential administration.
Another source, also close to the Kremlin, says that the scenario for the selection of a new governor almost always looks different.
“If a replacement is pre-selected or if the governor is allowed to choose a successor, then the process is already technical,” he says. - In other cases, the process of selecting candidates is launched. It involves the embassy, \u200b\u200bthe presidential administration's internal policy departments, various groups and structures, including state corporations and business. They all give suggestions. Further, they are first filtered at the level of the UVP, then at the level of the administration of the Presidential Administration, and then they are brought before the president. In this case, the candidacy can be replayed at the last moment. In this situation, if all of a sudden the influence groups manage to cross off the priority candidate from the list, they select from the remaining people on the short list. For example, this happened with the appointment of Anatoly Brovko as Governor of the Volgograd Region. Valery Yazev was the priority candidate, but at the last moment the appointment was canceled under the influence of Lukoil and Dmitry Medvedev, ”the source said.
An ex-official in the presidential administration says that there are difficult cases when the priority candidate refuses, and the second most important candidate has problems or is too young. So, for example, it happened in the Kaliningrad region, where instead of Nikolai Tsukanov, Yevgeny Zinichev, a native of the FSB, first became an interim officer, but two months later he refused public office. Then, instead of him, 30-year-old Anton Alikhanov became the head of the Kaliningrad region.
“Sometimes, in difficult cases, it is clear that it is necessary to select a candidate for the region from outside, and all regional candidates are removed from the short list. Most often, outside candidates are proposed by business groups or political clans in charge of the region. Also, in this case, a candidate can be proposed by the head of the administration, members of the Security Council, the speaker of the State Duma in a personal meeting with the president. Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko is inactive in this regard. There are also quite curious cases. For example, Anatoly Chubais recommended Nikita Belykh to the president for the post of governor, ”says the source.
He notes that one should not exaggerate the importance of analytical notes that political scientists write for the administration, especially regional political scientists. The interlocutor of the publication says that he does not know a single case when someone who was recommended by political scientists from the region would become the governor. The opinion of federal political scientists working with the region is taken into account at the level of internal policy management, he adds.
“It happens that it’s like on“ Election Day ”: a person did not know yesterday that he would become governor today,” says Leonid Davydov. - A more regular situation when a person is called by his patron from structures that can lobby their candidate. There is such a call: they say, there is one career option for you, drive up. In rare emergency situations, it may be different: a call comes from the presidential administration, they ask where they say you are, a car will come for you now. You will most likely go to the head of the UVP and then immediately to the curator of the political bloc. In parallel, the process of special checks on you by the security forces will be launched. And then - a meeting under the TV cameras with the first person, but it is of a ritual nature. Or there may be no meeting at all. Sometimes, if in the process of drawing up a short-list of possible successors, a couple of candidates remain, then it is taken into account which influence group, including a corporate one, the region is assigned to. There are many examples when it is impossible to become the governor of a certain region without joining a certain sub-clan.
And even at the last stage of appointing a new governor, the first person can confer with someone from the entourage and cancel the decision on the appointment and choose another candidate, "says Davydov.
“There is no single algorithm,” Vyacheslav Smirnov agrees. - It happens that the first person to whom someone could recommend a person is determined with the surname of the new governor, or personal acquaintance with the president can play a role. In this case, the people executing this decision may not know who or what influenced it. On the other hand, for example, during the presidency of Dmitry Medvedev there was a system when in the administration, at a meeting with its head and deputies, the names of those who would be recommended to the president on the shortlist were discussed under the protocol, with arguments why it was worth including this or that human. I don’t know how such meetings are going now, ”he said.
Dmitry Gusev notes that one should not underestimate the opinion of the security officials, which is conveyed to the president at the stage of special checks.
“First, candidates from the short-list are interviewed in the administration, and then the security officials evaluate the candidates. Also, we must not forget that the keys to the governor's office are actually not one, but two: one - for the president, the second - for the residents of the region, ”Gusev adds.
Of course, the decision is still ultimately made by the president, sums up the head of the Center for Political Analysis Pavel Danilin. “The presidential administration plays a key role in preparing the procedure for appointing a new head of the region. It is she who is responsible for preparing the shortlist of candidates. Ever since the president himself proposed candidates for the post of governors, the administration has been preparing, and this tradition has now been somewhat modified, but in general it has been preserved, ”says Danilin.