The situation in Aleppo and Palmyra now. Putin's private army in Syria takes a toll: Voice of America. Gunners from Washington

The performance of Sergei Roldugin, a defendant in the Panama Papers and Vladimir Putin's friend, cellist Sergei Roldugin, at a concert by the Mariinsky Theater Symphony Orchestra in the Syrian city of Palmyra may be a gesture of contempt towards the West, which the Kremlin considers responsible for leaking documents that cast a shadow on Putin's associates. Western observers write about this, commenting on Roldugin's participation in the concert.

On Thursday, May 5, in the Syrian city of Palmyra, the release of which from the militants of the Islamic State terrorist group was announced in official Damascus and Moscow, a concert "in memory of the Syrian military personnel" took place. The event was attended by the Mariinsky Orchestra under the direction of Valery Gergiev, as well as the cellist Roldugin, through whom, according to the Panama Papers, money laundering is carried out in the circle of persons close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Putin says in Palmyra, the Mariinsky Theater Symphony Orchestra is playing, and the cellist Roldugin, who is involved in laundering billions, is watching all this," writes the Moscow correspondent of the Financial Times Max Seddon.

Putin personally spoke with the participants of the Prayer for Palmyra concert via video link, Russian media reported.

"Shamed by the Panamanian papers, Roldugin plays in Palmyra," - said on Twitter Michael Milleris an international journalist with a long career at Mashable.

While a number of commentators limited themselves to stating the fact that the person involved in the Panama Papers played at the event, others called his presence a Kremlin gesture. They say the "leak", which Moscow described as an operation of the Western special services directed against Russia, is not a hindrance to the Kremlin.

“Roldugin’s speech in Palmyra is the result of a month-long brainstorming in Moscow on how to say“ go to ... ”after the Panama Papers were released,” laughs the editor of Global Voices Kevin Rothrock.

“Roldugin plays at a concert in the ruins of Palmyra. I can’t stop thinking that his presence is a deliberate “fuck you” gesture aimed at the West, ”he said on Twitter Tom Parfitt, Moscow correspondent for The Times.

This is better than what has fallen to the lot of Palmyra under the leadership of ISIS, notes Mark McKinnon, international correspondent for the Canadian edition of The Globe and Mail.

“You don’t have to love Putin or Assad to think that this is better than what the Islamic State was preparing for Palmyra,” McKinnon said.

"What do the Syrians themselves think?" - the Moscow correspondent of Deutsche Welle advises to ask all observers Emma Burrows... And he notes: "Russia itself is very proud of its contribution to the liberation of Palmyra."

Losing Aleppo, Western and Arab-monarchist ideologues of the great Middle East chaos in Syria understand that they are losing the key to all of Syria. They also understand that for all the cries about "the lawlessness of Russia and Assad in Aleppo," the same Russia and Syria will not stop in the activities of eliminating gangster groups in the largest Syrian city. Deprived of the opportunity to receive reinforcements, food and weapons from the outside, unable to en masse use the civilian population as a human shield, the militants are practically on their knees begging their main sponsors to do everything so that they can get out of the boiler in Aleppo.

It is clear as daylight: if it were only about ordinary "bearded boys" who themselves "stirred up" something militarily, then the West would have nothing to do with them. But in Syria (and in Aleppo in particular), there is a frank collaboration of terrorist pawns with those external players who are trying to add queens by their forces and put their own "order" on the Syrian chessboard.

The pawn is systematically rolled into the sand; pawns - with good obscenities, sponsors of pawns - with good obscenities, the "comrades" from the American, Turkish and Saudi special services, who have cluttered the ranks of pawns, feeling the skin burning on soft places - too ... And, considering that the front in Aleppo has recently Since then, it has become virtually the only front on which the main forces of the Syrian army are concentrated, the main external sponsors of the Syrian lawlessness, an idea came to mind that, in their opinion, could somehow change the balance of power in the SAR.

This idea is to open a kind of "second front", since the affairs on the "first front" are such that "bearded boys" can shave off their beards in a matter of days, and this will become the final point of the liberation of Aleppo by government forces. The opening of a "second front" against Russia and Assad in Idlib, which is under the complete control of terrorists, did not make sense, because the anti-terrorist coalition openly leaves Idlib "for dessert." Yes, and information resonance in the case of Idlib clearly would not have come out.

But in Palmyra ... According to the logic of foreign developers of operations - the very thing. Naturally, the fact that the campaign to free Palmyra from ISIS was actively covered (prohibited in the Russian Federation), and how clear the signal was sent by Russia that Palmyra was torn from the clutches of barbarians and returned to the world as a pearl of the cultural heritage of the planet scale.

Therefore, the very possibility of opening a "second front" precisely on the outskirts of Palmyra is a clear attempt not only to inflict as much damage as possible on the Syrian government troops and to divert certain forces from Aleppo, where instructors and advisers are boiling in a cauldron, but also to reduce the situation to inflicting information and reputational damage to Russia. Like, hey, they broadcast concerts in the amphitheater of Palmyra to the whole world - come on, ISIS infantry, do what for which forces and means are poured into you where it is required ...

And the ISIS infantry gave ... And what else could be expected if the liberation of Palmyra was the liberation of Palmyra. No progress for tens, and even more so for hundreds of kilometers north and east, did not work, if then such goals were set. The city, liberated from terrorists, was left "under the protection" of those units of the Syrian army, which were supposed to, perhaps, indicate their presence. The rare hum of planes and the whistle of helicopter propellers in the sky over the ancient city made it clear to the developers of the strategy of waging a terrorist war in Syria that they can wait for a convenient moment (for example, worsening weather to reduce the likelihood of using aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syrian Air Force), distribute forces to the most vulnerable for Assad's forces plots and strike.

And so it happened. Having formed four strike groups, equipped not only with off-road vehicles with machine guns, which are usual for ISIS, but also with armored vehicles (up to tanks), the militants climbed to Palmyra from four directions. The first strikes - with mined armored vehicles on front lines - are classic ISIS terrorist tactics.

Three directions - southern, northern and eastern - were chosen with the aim of cutting off the city and the military continent of the SAR located in it from the main forces in the west of the province. The triple blow of the ISIS is also a clear attempt to cut off the transport links of Palmyra with Homs, as well as with Damascus. These two transport arteries are truly vital to Palmyra. Advancement from the three indicated directions, including a blow from Al-Safra, allowed ISIS fighters to cut the Syrian government troops in the city into two parts, turning them into cauldrons by building up their own forces in the rear directions.

Now about the fourth direction of the ISIS attack. This is especially interesting from a tactical point of view. The fact is that detachments, consisting of several hundred militants, attempted to block the Syrian ground reinforcements, which were moving in the direction from the Tiyas military base. The "meeting" took place on December 10 at the section where the road to Khuweisis, Al-Salamia and Hama adjoins the Homs-Palmira highway (this is a few kilometers from the mentioned Thiyas base, where Russian attack helicopters are also deployed).

The map published on social networks, on which terrorist groups are marked in black, eloquently indicates that the situation was truly threatening over the weekend (December 10-11). A successful attempt for the militants to cut off reinforcements and deprive the contingent in Palmyra of supplies led to the unequivocal loss of the city previously liberated from the militants by the Syrian army.

Before the ISIS offensive:

Two days after the start of the ISIS offensive:

The situation for the Syrian troops was aggravated by bad weather, which has been in the province of Homs for several days. A series of facts such as the most accurate weather forecast for a specific area available to ISIS, the distribution of forces in critical areas, strikes aimed at cutting the main group of forces in Palmyra, an attempt to cut off Palmyra from several main roads leading to the city at once, blocking the group reinforcements testify to only one thing: the operation was not only carefully planned, it was also planned by professionals. Even if we consider that there are many former servicemen of the Iraqi army (Saddam's army) in ISIS, it is hardly worth believing that such a well-thought-out tactic of action at the most suitable time was developed exclusively by former Saddam lieutenants. There is a high-quality preparation of the operation, the exchange of information, the coordination of the actions of several thousand militants dispersed over an area of \u200b\u200bmore than 150 square meters. km. In general, the question "where do the legs grow from?" in such a situation can be considered rhetorical.

The critical situation of the Syrian troops in Palmyra forced the Syrian and Russian commanders to actively use aircraft, even despite the bad weather. First of all, the all-weather Mi-28N and Ka-52 were lifted into the air over Palmyra, which also struck at a group of terrorists who were trying to resist the approach of reinforcements in the area of \u200b\u200bthe fork in the roads to Homs and Hama. The strikes in the conditions of the strongest fog were applied to the militants practically all night from Saturday to Sunday. The all-weather and night activity of Russian rotorcraft became an unpleasant surprise for terrorists, plus a new high-quality advertisement for Russian helicopter construction. However, they got used to the "surprise", which was reflected in the continuation of the ISIS offensive.

According to Interfax, Kalibr cruise missiles were used against a group of militants in the south of Palmyra. Long-range bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces were also involved in the operation. The Syrian command decided to use six aircraft. One of them (MiG-23) on Sunday fell in the province of Homs. The officially designated reason is a "technical malfunction", although the reason for bad weather conditions for an effective air operation is much more likely.

According to various sources, the total losses of Syrian troops on the morning of December 11 in Palmyra and its environs amounted to more than 250 people. The largest number of killed and wounded is to the north-east of the city, where, having broken through the Syrian defenses. ISIS members were even able to enter city blocks. Information about the losses on the evening of the same day came extremely contradictory. One thing is clear - at least 320 people.

Thanks to air support, which allowed the Homs-Palmyra road to be unblocked, the Syrian army received reinforcements and was able to stop the active terrorist offensive. The fighting continued. Al-Jazeera said that the militants were able to break through to the historical center of ancient Tadmor (the name of Palmyra in Arabic). A few hours later, the same TV channel reported that the militants had completely seized the historical part of the city, while a mass evacuation of the population began from the city.

The Western, Qatari and Saudi press do not hide their gloating over the difficulties that Russia and Syria have to face in Palmyra these days. And this is understandable - they (the mentioned media) are also against terrorism ... But how could it be otherwise? ..

Thus, it can be stated that the tactics of opening a second terrorist front in Syria worked. The ideological inspirers of the militants achieved their goal - the Syrian army began a large-scale transfer of forces and equipment to Palmyra, exposing other areas of the anti-terrorist confrontation. It is also a fact that the Syrian army has yet to learn how to consolidate the victories previously obtained at a huge price and hold the liberated territories. Otherwise, even the heroic act of Lieutenant Alexander Prokhorenko near Palmyra is actually nullified by the lax attitude of the Syrian command. Isn't this the main task of the apologists of the Syrian chaos? ..

Initially, incomplete and fragmentary information on the situation came from Palmyra. Now the picture is more or less clearer. Some sources claimed that reconnaissance had missed the regrouping and concentration of militants for the storming of Palmyra. This is not entirely true. It turned out that the necessary information was still provided to the Syrian command.

However, then something happened that no one could have foreseen: at the first shots from the militants, the units of the regular Syrian army fled from Tadmor (Palmyra) in panic, abandoning weapons and military equipment. The valiant Syrian fighters rushed so that they were hardly stopped far west of Palmyra, on the outskirts of the T4 airbase (Et-Tiyas).

Initially it was reported that there were no Russian military advisers in Palmyra. This is not true. "Igilovtsy" (militants of the terrorist banned in Russia) even published on their websites pictures of the property left by Russians.

The number of the Russian contingent was just over 200 people (control group), plus a security group - 120 special forces. It was they who remained in Palmyra, almost alone for some time defending the city. As a result, the fighters were surrounded by superior enemy forces. To get them out of Palmyra, a special corridor had to be cut. Russian aviation destroyed 11 units of jihadist armored vehicles. The Russians had to abandon part of their property (mainly from the logistics).

Panic and cowardice

The deputy chief of the General Staff of the Syrian Armed Forces ran ahead of all in panic of the retreating Syrian units.

Behind him, in complete confusion, dragging along the rank and file soldiers and junior commanders, ran the chief of the main operational directorate of the General Staff of Syria, the commander of the missile forces and artillery of the Syrian army, the commander and headquarters of the 3rd army corps, the commander of the 18th armored division.

The deputy chief of the General Staff was hardly found after two days. Nothing else but elementary cowardice can explain such behavior of representatives of the Syrian high command. With difficulty, it was possible to detain the alarmists and cowards, bring the Syrian army units to their senses and return them to their positions by the morning of December 11, stabilizing the situation. But then the Syrians fled again.

Complete chaos reigned in the units and subdivisions of the Syrian army near Palmyra. According to interlocutors familiar with the course of the Syrian campaign, Bashar al-Assad agreed with the Russian assessment of the actions of the Syrian military. The fleeing deputy chief of the Syrian General Staff has already been removed from office and dismissed from military service.

At the same time, during the assault, the official authorities in Damascus persistently told the population how heroically, not sparing blood and life itself, the Syrian army was defending Palmyra.

Syrian soldiers are terrified of jihad mobiles. There is no certainty that they will hold out in new positions to the west of Palmyra. Sometimes they say that militants near Palmyra have seized some gas fields. In fact, they have long been destroyed and do not represent any value.

Is it worth fighting off Palmyra?

Keeping Palmyra under such conditions, of course, was impossible. Should I beat her now? So far, there are apparently no such plans. Taking Palmyra back with the support of aviation will not be difficult, but keeping it in the future with this level of combat capability of the Syrian army is impossible.

By redeploying combat-ready units from Aleppo to Palmyra, there is a risk of losing this city too. Reincarnation of defeated and retreating armed formations is quite possible there. Now the activity of large detachments of jihadists is noticeable northwest of Aleppo, in the area of \u200b\u200bthe settlements of Anadan, Hayyan and Hraytan.

On the part of the pro-government forces, the militia is the first to fight. On the part of the regular Syrian army, there are only two units: the special forces of Colonel Hassan Suheil (Tiger Force) and the Desert Falcons unit of the brothers Mohammed and Aymen Jabers.

The rest of the pro-government formations, according to the interlocutors familiar with the course of the operation, are only doing harm and are openly inactive.

Prior to that, all the forces involved in the operation, following the agreements with the militants, observed the "regime of silence" throughout the day. The Russian Center for Reconciliation of Warring Parties prepared the withdrawal of illegal armed groups from the city through a special corridor in the western direction, in the Salah ad-Din quarter and further along the Kastello road in the direction of Idlib.

Here it should be noted that there are numerous foreign instructors, including Turkish ones, in East Aleppo. They have been cornered and are not allowed out of the blockaded neighborhoods.

The day before, the terrorists announced that the remaining 2,500 militants were ready to leave Aleppo. The fire was stopped. We brought up 14 buses. Direct communication was organized with the commanders of the terrorist detachments and even with Ankara. Empty vehicles were kept until 21.00. At 2.00 am the militants offered to take 36 wounded from them. They were told: either all come out, or no one. As a result, hostilities began to finish off the terrorists.

Crisis resolution without the US and

Most likely, after the cleanup of Aleppo, possibly on Thursday, an agreement will be signed to overcome the crisis in Syria in one of the capitals of the states adjacent to Russia. A complete ceasefire will be announced by the end of the week. Then there is a plan to organize a constitutional assembly in Syria.

Many of the participants in the hostilities, including the commanders of the armed detachments of the moderate opposition, want to move in this direction. It is high time to transfer the process into a negotiation channel: to create a special group and deal with issues of political settlement, and step by step: a new constitution, conditions and terms of elections.

All Western politicians and the media are most unhappy with the fact that Russia has brought closer a peaceful resolution of the Syrian crisis without the participation of the United States, Europe and even the UN. Therefore, they are trying to tell and demonstrate pseudo-horror about the alleged humanitarian disaster in Aleppo.

As for the negotiating group in Geneva, Russian military specialists have absolutely no idea who is negotiating there, with whom, and in what time frame. It is only clear that, having seen obvious progress in reaching a peaceful settlement in Syria without the participation of Geneva experts, indignation began there, and now they already want to negotiate with Bashar al-Assad in Geneva.

At the same time, Russian experts also expressed such a point of view that Bashar should be replaced with a more capable leader capable of bringing order to the country and the armed forces.

But there is also an understanding that just touch Assad now, and everything in Syria will fall apart and fall apart. This will really be the last day of the country. First of all, the closest circle of the president will scatter, then the rest of the officials and the military. So far, there is objectively no replacement for Assad. To paraphrase Stalin, we can say: "I have no other presidents of Syria for you."

Now the main tasks look like this: finish off the remnants of the militants in Aleppo, form combat-ready units to hold government-controlled territories, sign a ceasefire agreement and curtail active hostilities. After all, you cannot be more Syrian than the Syrians themselves.

Mikhail Khodarenok / facebook.com

Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru, a retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Command Academy of Air Defense (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile battalion (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of an anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy (1998).
Observer "" (2000-2003), chief editor of the newspaper "Military Industrial Courier" (2010-2015).

The situation in Palmyra is the US response to the brilliant results achieved by Russia in Aleppo

Gunners from Washington

The attack on Palmyra implies professional staff work, which the militants are incapable of.

On December 11, militants of the "Islamic State" (IS) banned in Russia ousted Assad's troops from Tadmor, historical Palmyra and for the second time seized this provincial city of world historical importance, which is not so important strategically, if we do not take into account the nearby intersection of roads leading to including the besieged several years of ISIS Deir ez-Zor with its refinery and air force base.

It is characteristic that the offensive of five thousand militants with tanks, armored personnel carriers and rocket artillery went through a desert area for several hundred kilometers, but not a single Assad's intelligence found it, which makes experts talk about a possible betrayal at the highest level of the command of the Syrian army and its muhabarats.

Betrayal or roguishness?

A special topic is where these five thousand IS militants came from, despite the fact that in the "besieged" by the United States and its allies, Mosul remained, according to the estimates of the "anti-terrorist coalition", at the time of the capture of Palmyra by the Islamists from three to five thousand militants. In part, they came from Mosul, despite the fact that the road to Syrian Raqqa at that time had already been cut off by the formations of Baghdad and its allies besieging Mosul. Part consisted of the Syrian IS detachments, which were supposed to hold Raqqa itself. And they stopped doing this immediately after the United States announced that the storming of the city was postponed for at least two months.

That is, it is not clear how the militants who infiltrated the order of the troops besieging Mosul and abandoned the Syrian capital of IS to fend for themselves in the face of Kurdish and Turkish units, theoretically competing for the right to strike Raqqa in alliance with the Americans, the Islamists got unnoticed, despite all their heavy equipment. without a single shot from the air force of the American coalition, Assad's aviation and, note, the Russian Aerospace Forces to Palmyra, which was occupied after heavy fighting. Moreover, the planning of such an operation implies professional staff work, which the militants themselves are hardly capable of.

The first wave of attackers was half destroyed by the Russian Aerospace Forces, which did not affect the outcome of the battle as a whole: it was lost. Palmyra was recaptured from the militants at one time after a complex and carefully prepared operation, planned and carried out under the direct control of Russian military advisers. Lost both the first and the second time by the Syrians themselves quickly, although now they tried to hold it and yielded to superior enemy forces.

Assad's loss of Palmyra coincided too closely with the end of the operation in eastern Aleppo to be accidental. It is very likely that the United States in this case either directly used IS as an instrument of military pressure on Damascus, or turned a blind eye to the fact that it was used by their allies in the "anti-terrorist coalition" - most likely Qatar and, possibly, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Fortunately, Doha, Riyadh and Ankara at one time, if necessary, coordinated actions in Syria. Which version corresponds to reality is a separate question.

So far, one thing is clear: Washington and its allies have not taken and most likely will not take any further action against IS if this terrorist structure fights against Assad and the Russian military.

This nullifies the meaning of negotiations with them on Syria until a final victory is achieved, that is, the destruction of terrorist groups until the moment when the rest capitulate, withdrawing from the war under the guarantees of the negotiators from the Khmeimim base.

This contradicts the logic of not only Western, but also domestic diplomats, whose purpose of activity is to limit and try to subordinate the activities of the Russian army instead of themselves, without claiming leading roles, to follow military successes, consolidating them politically. It is clear to any specialist that the termination of the use of the Russian Aerospace Forces against terrorists, the voluntarily undertaken by Russia to limit the actions of the Aerospace Forces in urban development and the humanitarian pauses pushed by the UN and the United States, devalue the results of hostilities, making the war endless. The question of when the army will be allowed to do its work as it is necessary to achieve the final result has no answer today.

The current situation in Palmyra is the response of the United States and its allies to the brilliant results achieved by Russia and the forces it supports in Aleppo. This city will not be the capital of the Syrian jihadists, which Benghazi in Libya once became. But the fall of Palmyra shows that the Syrian war is far from over.

This requires an analysis of the situation both in Palmyra itself and in Mosul and Aleppo. Fortunately, ahead of the cleansing of Idlib, the liberation from the militants of Palmyra, the lifting of the blockade from Deir ez-Zor, and it is not excluded - the destruction of IS in Iraq, since the United States is actually doing nothing against this organization, giving it every chance. Let us consider a number of aspects of the war against jihadists in Syria and Iraq, based on the articles by Yu. B. Shcheglovin, prepared for the IBI.

Lessons from Mosul

Let us first analyze the situation around Mosul. On December 3, a contingent of Turkish troops entered the territory of the Al-Shikhan militia camp to assist the Iraqi army in the capture of Mosul. The Turkish reinforcements consist of three battalions with heavy weapons. They must assist in the liberation of Ninawa Province by the Sunni militia, the National Force for the Liberation of Ninawa. The Al-Shikhan camp is located on the border of Dahuk and Ninawa, and about 3,500 Sunni militias undergo training under the guidance of Turkish instructors. They should be moving towards Mosul soon.
According to experts, it is too early to talk about a real large-scale entry of Turkish troops and their participation in the storming of the Iraqi capital IS. Rather, it is about the rotation of the Turkish contingent.

The negative reaction of Iraqi Prime Minister H. al-Abadi to the participation of the Turks in the civil war in his country is known. Ankara will take this into account, despite the harsh statements of the top Turkish leadership. The Turks are more concerned with maintaining a presence in Iraqi Kurdistan than participating in street fighting in Mosul or liberating the Sunni Triangle. In the Kurdish autonomy, Iran is building up its influence, using contacts with the J. Talabani clan and the Kurdistan Workers' Party. There are IRGC instructors and multiple launch rocket systems.

At the same time, it seems that a new stage is being planned in the assault on Mosul. Iraqi special forces, along with police and militias, are drawn into street fighting. According to the US military, victory at Mosul is not in sight. The offensive lasts two months, and the Americans were forced to adjust their original plans twice. Apparently, they will have to do it a third time. An attempt at an offensive by the Iraqi special forces was made at the direction of al-Abadi. The military is trying to attack from the east, which makes it possible for IS to maneuver, concentrating forces on priority areas.

The coalition leadership and the Iraqi command are losing their nerves. Recent airstrikes against civilian targets indicate that Iraqi security forces and the Americans have moved to forcibly squeeze the population out of Mosul. This tactic also includes the destruction of water stations, which deprived of clean water nearly 650 thousand people.

In October, Tehran put pressure on the Iraqi prime minister, demanding that Shiite popular mobilization forces, loyal to the Iranians, be recruited into active hostilities. This is resisted by the command of the Iraqi army. At the same time, the artillery of government forces in the city is ineffective. ISIS militants have created a system of underground tunnels near Mosul, allowing them to appear in the rear of the Iraqi military. IS uses booby traps and car bombs.

Narrow streets allow suicide bombers to attack attackers. The IS command is successfully using winter conditions for raids by mobile groups with heavy weapons in the rear of Iraqi units. At the same time, the army calls on the population to stay in the city, and Prime Minister al-Abadi - to leave it.

Baghdad's special forces, which have managed to gain a foothold on the eastern outskirts of Mosul, are lacking support from the 9th division. Its tanks tried to enter the city, but when they were ambushed, they retreated. The losses of Iraqi troops in November amounted to about two thousand people. To support the 9th division, the 15th and 16th are being pulled up, which means the concentration of almost all the attackers in the eastern direction. Plus, units of the 15th division control a narrow section of the front in the southwest, on the road from Mosul to Tell Afar. This is still preparation for the offensive. However, the US military is being drawn into it, which began to participate in hostilities on the streets of Mosul.

Radical split

The end of the defeat of the Islamists in eastern Aleppo led to sharp divisions in their ranks. Some of the militants laid down their arms. Others agreed to leave the city, heading along a corridor allotted to them into Idlib province, which remains under the control of Assad's opponents. The leaders of Jebhat Fath ash-Sham (ex-al-Nusra, banned in Russia) and Kataib Abu Ammara opposed the surrender. Radicals attacked the headquarters of the Jaysh al-Islam and Feylak al-Islam brigades, which they suspected of intending to surrender, seizing weapons depots. The field commanders, led by Abu Abdo al-Sheikh, were arrested and entered into negotiations with government forces.

At the same time, attempts to maneuver with the names of groups and change “Jabhat al-Nusra” to “Jabhat Fath al-Sham” in order to dissolve the structure that had compromised itself in the alliance of nine groups did not succeed. Attempts to publicly refuse the leadership of Jabhat al-Nusra to withdraw from the alliance with al-Qaeda also failed.

Formally, after much persuasion from the Turkish MIT and the General Intelligence Directorate of Saudi Arabia, this was announced. But it was done in such a way that Washington had to declare: it does not believe in a departure from the connection with Al-Qaeda. That does not prevent the United States from refraining from air strikes on the positions of "Jebhat Fatah al-Sham". Riyadh cannot agree to abandon the ideology of al-Qaeda, since this, along with money, is a factor ensuring the arrival of new volunteers. There are many committed Islamists among those who fight in Jabhat Fatah al-Sham.

Amid the defeat of the armed opposition in Aleppo, the Turkish MIT and the Qatari State Security Service are trying to transform the crumbling alliance of nine opposition groups.

As it is assumed in Ankara and Doha, Aleppo as a center of resistance, especially a stronghold of the future expansion of anti-Assad forces, is over. In this regard, the task was put forward to create a centralized Sunni resistance in Idlib, where the "reconciled" militants from Aleppo and the vicinity of Damascus are leaving. This makes it possible to drag out time, avoid final defeat and restore combat potential. First of all, with regard to the pro-Turkish groups. Ankara and Doha are trying to become central partners and sponsors of the restructured Syrian rebel movement, squeezing the KSA and Jordan out of it.

At the same time, the Jaysh al-Fatah coalition broke up not only into groups, the two largest of them are experiencing an internal split. Jebhat Fatah al-Sham was divided into al-Qaeda supporters and opponents. The main opponent of the pro-Saudi elements is the Jordanian Abu Khadija al-Urduni, who is closely associated with the Jordanian General Intelligence Agency. Ahrar al-Sham split into supporters of the Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood. This group was funded by Riyadh and Ankara.

A conflict arose between their creatures. Qatar and Turkey are making efforts to preserve the centralized Sunni resistance in Syria and bring it to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood under the political legitimacy in the West and positioning itself as the main political force to be built into the future state architecture of Syria.

These plans and the prospects for their implementation are skeptically assessed in the analytical reports of the Saudi and Emirates special services. They testify that it is unrealistic to overcome the split and attempts in this direction are a waste of time. The documents indicate the productive work of the Syrian security agencies, as a result of which a process of mass desertions of a significant number of guerrilla warlords began. Riyadh is at a crossroads in choosing further tactics, which negatively affects the amount of material and technical assistance to the militants.

There is doubt about the ability to centrally control the entire conglomerate of anti-Assad groups. Fortunately, a successful offensive in Aleppo seriously reduced this opportunity on their part.

Aleppo as a symbol of multipolarity

Questions about the behavior of the US military contingent and the coalition led by them during the IS offensive on Palmyra force, among other things, to analyze the American initiatives with regard to Aleppo. The contradictory nature of Washington, which either nominated them through Secretary of State John Kerry, then withdrew them, as well as a massive attack by the EU with the involvement of the UN (Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is leaving his post and can say anything, in connection with which it is curious what his new place of work is , this may explain his behavior) and the introduction of new sanctions against "friends of Assad" indicate that the West is panicking over the surrender of Aleppo and the fragmentation of the Sunni resistance in Syria.

Kerry's proposals are intended to save the besieged in order to knock the initiative out of Moscow's hands. The State Department believed that dragging out time with the help of another humanitarian truce would help regroup the forces of opponents of the Assad regime and gain a foothold in at least some part of eastern Aleppo. Then it became obvious that the militants were leaving the city and it was unrealistic to talk about a united front. After that, the United States withdrew the initial initiative, trying to understand what was happening, what the dynamics were and what options were feasible in this regard. Hence the postponement of the main round of US-Russian consultations to December 9th. Washington just doesn't know what to do.

The Europeans do not understand this either, but they understand: the initiative in the Syrian direction belongs to Russia. The participation of Brussels in humanitarian aid programs for "suffering Aleppo" is minimized.

To say, “We cannot provide humanitarian aid to the Sunnis in Aleppo through Moscow and Damascus, because this would be evidence of their dominance” is politically incorrect and risky from the point of view of obstruction by the BSV public opinion, which would accuse European leaders of their personal political ambition is more important than the lives of starving Syrians.

White House spokesman Joshua Ernest at a briefing, answering journalists' questions, could not clarify how Washington intends to force Moscow to change its policy in Syria. He mentioned sanctions, admitting that they do not always work. He was reminded that earlier sanctions had already been imposed on Iran and Syria, several UN Security Council resolutions had been adopted. Ernest urged not to confuse the defense of American interests and military action against IS.

“The situation in Aleppo has received a lot of attention, but the tragedy of Aleppo should not be allowed to overshadow the importance of what the United States military and 67 coalition members have done,” he said. That after the inaction of the coalition against IS during the capture of Palmyra sounds very cynical.

At the same time, the US military bombed a hospital in Mosul, which, according to them, was the headquarters of IS. Even so, it is a dubious justification in terms of democratic norms.

Washington continues to believe that Russia is focused not on fighting the Jabhat al-Nusra group, but on supporting Bashar al-Assad. This statement was made by Mark Toner, Deputy Press Officer of the US State Department, at a regular briefing for journalists. “Russia and the United States agree that al-Nusra is a terrorist organization and must be destroyed, just like IS. But we still haven't seen Russia focusing on al-Nusra. It focuses on helping the regime fight moderate opposition in Aleppo. We believe that this is what is happening there, ”said Toner.

At the same time, it is well known that in Aleppo there were, first of all, "Jabhat al-Nusra" and the groups affiliated with it, which officially announced this. Nobody prevented the US from bombing the positions of Jabhat al-Nusra in Idlib (but this was not done). It is clear that the position of officials in Washington and Brussels is explained by the fact that Syria and Russia's actions there are a breakdown of the monopolar world. Washington and Brussels don't like this. But talking about it openly is fraught with reputational risks. In this regard, the tactics of helping all large forces in Syria hostile to Assad have been adopted. There is not much logic here. This is what caused the loss of Washington and Brussels in the information war.

It seems that in this situation, the main task for Damascus and Moscow in the Syrian conflict has not changed. This is the final cleansing of Aleppo with the simultaneous launch of a humanitarian aid mechanism. It would be advisable to organize a trip to Aleppo for foreign journalists, as was done at the Khmeimim base. In general, it is important not to allow the West to seize the initiative in the information and political directions of the Syrian conflict.

Let's pay attention to the position of Beijing, which began to emphasize support for Moscow's actions in the UN. This frightened the West extremely.

The degree of fear is indicated by the neutrality (if not support) of the United States in relation to the actions of IS in the course of the capture of Palmyra by the latter. In the end, the task of overthrowing Assad, set in due time by Riyadh and Doha, was not removed from Ankara and Washington.