Contractors developers rise in price of real estate. On defense of shareholders. Because of the new law, real estate prices will increase. Guarantees at your own expense
In the first half of 2018, a record number of residential complexes is preparing to leave the Moscow market of new buildings.
Photo: ITAR-TASS / Interpress / Tatyana Timirkhanova
Developers are striving to launch as many residential complexes as possible until the entry into force of new demands for the development of housing developers, developed by the editorial office of RBC Real Estate Developers and Realtors. According to their forecasts, the greatest volume of new buildings this year will be released into the Moscow market until July 1.
The total volume of projects that will be on sale in 2018 will be approximately 1.5 times more than in the past, the Director of Strategic Development of FGC Leader Pavel Bryzgalov predicts. If you rely on the experience of past years, then, most likely, the peak of the output of new facilities will be on the market for March-April, Natalia Shatalina is noted by the General Director of Miel-New Building. In general, according to its assessment, an increase in the amount of supply for the year should occur in all segments.
"Up to 75% of the annual volume (about 1.5 million square meters in Moscow) can enter the market in the first six months of this year. Accordingly, the remaining share will be released on the market in the second half of the year, "said Tatyana Kalyuzhnova, director of the Urban Group.
Previously, the metric group experts "RBC Real Estate" that the Moscow developers are now being developed about 140 new projects. "In the first half of 2018, at least about 30 objects will be available on sale, and taking into account the possible acceleration of the start of the new LCD, their number can reach 40-50," said the management partner of Metric Group, participant of the partner network CBRE Maria Lithinetskaya . For comparison: in 2017, 80 new complexes began on the metropolitan market of new buildings, while in 2016 their number reached 71, and in 2015 - 66.
In the second half of 2018, there will certainly be a significant decline in developmental activity due to the radical changes of the rules of the game in the new buildings market, Lithinetskaya believes. "Not all developers will be able to adapt to new business conditions in view of the increased costs. The start of some projects will have to postpone at a later date, "it predicts.
What stimulates developers
Developers, if it allows the project stage, try not to miss the opportunity to undergo an examination and get permission to build until July 1, 2018, notes Pavel Bryzgalov. Many developers want to have time for the transition to a new construction financing scheme to attract the largest amounts of shareholders under DDU treaties, the managing director of the LSR Group Yuri Ilyin adds. "For developers, the old rules of the game are more understandable. In addition, the new amendments in the 214-FZ, which come into force on July 1, will change the financial model of the project, "explains Paul Bryzgalov.
At the same time, Tatyana Kalyuzhnova has not yet observe trends towards the accelerated conclusion of new projects, since today developers are caution to increase the volume of supply in the market against the background of a situation close to the taxation. At the same time, it does not exclude that new requirements that come into force on July 1 may affect the speed of the output of the buildings on sale.
How to change the requirements for developers
From July 1, 2018, new requirements for housing developers are entering Russia. Almost all of them relate to the financial side of the business. The developer at least 10% of the funds from the cost of building a residential complex by the time of the approval of the project declaration. In addition, the size of own finance directed to construction should not be less than 10% of the investment. Administrative costs cannot exceed 10% of the design cost of construction, and the total amount of advance payments is not more than 30%. Not related to the construction of the Developer's obligations are limited to 1% of the total investment.
The developer deprives the right to attract any loans besides the target loan to the project. All financing of construction should go through a single current account, which can be discovered only in the bank authorized by the authorities. In addition, the developer cannot produce shares and bonds, to ensure the obligations of third parties to their property, create commercial and non-commercial organizations.
Also limited the ability to attract funds simultaneously for several construction permits. Simply put, the principle of "One Developer is one building permit" is introduced. Accordingly, for large projects numbering several stages of construction, permits and project documentation will have to be approved before the start of implementation, and this will entail an increase in costs.
"These novels eventually provoke a noticeable increase in the cost of construction, which in the future will lead to either the increase in prices, or to a decrease in the profitability of the developer business. Given the current situation in the market where the adaptation of a sentence is felt, some of the developers will be forced to turn their activities or seriously revise its parameters, "said Maria Lithinetskaya.
How to change prices for new buildings
Experts surveyed by the editors do not expect significant on the new buildings of Moscow and the region this year. According to Pavel Bryzgalov, the large input of objects to the market in the first half of the year is unlikely to have a significant impact on the prices, since the passage of expertise and obtaining a construction permission does not mean that the project will be on sale. In addition, due to the withdrawal of a large number of new projects in the first half of the year in the second, we will receive some decline, he adds.
At the same time, Maria Lithinetska believes that an increase in the amount of supply, especially his jump-shaky character, will cause a heavy blow to a weak positive dynamics of prices, which has been outlined in separate segments in 2016-2018. Most likely, due to the growth of the offer, prices will fall in the first half of the year, since the developers will try to intercept customers from competitors at the expense of attractive rates, the expert predicts.
In general, Natalia Shatalin is expected to be a minor dynamic in the direction of the increase in 2018. "With regard to those residential complexes that will still go to the market in the second half of the year, due to the increased cost price in them may increase, but the developers are likely to try to prevent it. I believe that large developers will be able to keep prices at an attractive level and at the same time will not retreat from fulfilling the requirements of 214-ФЗ, "Mary Lithinetskaya summarizes.
The prices in the real estate market for a long period remain unchanged, while the trend is preserved to decrease. At the end of 2017, we can say that favorable conditions for the purchase of real estate associated with a decrease in mortgage rate, which reaches 7% per annum. There are preferential programs, state subsidies, discounts from developers. So is it worth buying housing or better postpone the transaction for the next year? What are the prospects for the real estate market? Is the investment in housing favorable and economically justified?
Situation in the real estate market at the end of 2017
The real estate market for 2017 notes the trend towards lower prices, which allows you to purchase housing with a moderate board. The demand of the population is limited, and the proposal is constantly growing. In Moscow, there is such a situation:
Developers are constantly conducting promotions, affiliate and price discounts for customers, which is caused by tough competition in the industry. At the end of 2017, prices did not increase, but the commissioning of new buildings increased significantly.
Is it worthwhile to buy apartments in a mortgage or better to wait next year? Experts believe that today's real estate market situation is the most favorable for the purchase of housing. The lowest mortgage rate is 6.75%, it is subsidized by the developer. Of course, it can be expected that a stock rate will be applied in the coming years - 6%, but now it is profitable to purchase apartments.
Today mortgage rates decreased significantly, and banks implement a variety of schemes for buying objects. Even if in 2018 the mortgage will be more profitable, you can refinance the current loan.
Buy housing in a mortgage or better accumulate the required amount? Of course, it solves every person alone. If you found a suitable apartment that is completely satisfied with the price, it is worth getting a loan. If there are no optimal offers on the market yet, you can continue to save. True, there is a risk of financial turmoil and loss of savings, as it was in 2014. Those who save, better than half of the savings to translate into currency and put in Sberbank or VTB - cash in the cell.
The price tag for housing from the developer turns out to be lower in view of the low demand and impressive volume of square meters introduced. What amount is needed to acquire primary housing?
In general, buying an apartment from the developer is the most attractive option. Not only are promoted, reduced rates and prices are awaited. So, choosing an apartment in the new complex "Liner" and paying 100% of its cost, you will get a designer finish and a kitchen equipped with modern appliances.
Is it worth waiting for the prices in Moscow on housing will decrease, and buy apartments will be much more profitable than now? This trend exists, but to build long-term forecasts is problematic. Experts believe that by 2021 prices reached such indicators:
But it is not worth talking about the average price, because it depends not only on the prospects for the development of the market, the level of supply and supply, but also the selected object, its location, the availability of infrastructure.
Investment attractiveness of real estate let and reduced at the end of the past years, but still remain. Investing money at the construction stage, and then resell apart apartments are still expedient. There are still classical investors in the market, acquiring square meters for resale in a few years, as well as for rent.
It is not necessary to wait for a sharp decline in prices in 2018, although buyers can find an interesting offer at the expense of impressive discounts from the developer. True, usually shares are not valid for the entire volume of apartments - to ensure that the offer will arrange you, it is impossible. It does not have to count on a significant reduction in prices - the cost of housing and so extremely low, and given the constant rise in price of land, building materials and construction, developers simply can not allow even larger discounts.
Buying an apartment in the mortgage today is really worth it, especially if your accumulations grow insufficiently fast. If you manage to postpone at least 100-200 thousand per month, it is worth waiting for not to take a big amount in the bank's debt.
Property market prospects,
The situation in the real estate market At the end of 2017, the real estate market for 2017 notes the trend towards lower prices, which allows you to purchase housing with a moderate board. The demand of the population is limited, and the proposal is constantly growing. In Moscow, there is such a situation:
- Real estate are less and less interested in investors and speculators planning to invest in the short term;
- Unlike the market of other cities, luxury accommodation uses in great demand - the developers are built by premium buildings. So, in Ramenki soon there will be over 140 thousand square meters. business class housing;
- It is advisable to invest in the early stages of construction, so, in the "Garden Quarters" complex, the price of a meter is 450 thousand rubles, and at the stage of readiness increases to 600 thousand;
- The quality of objects has significantly improved compared to the past decade. With the growth of competition, the level of comfort is growing - the comfort-class facilities are equipped with a developed infrastructure and unusual planning solutions;
- The boundaries between the housing classes are erased, and the comfort of the comfort level is even cheaper than the economy segment.
- The apartments of the Small Square and the corresponding price are still in great demand. Buy immediately a big and comfortable apartment in Moscow can afford not all.
Mortgage - Is it worth taken in 2017?
Is it worthwhile to buy apartments in a mortgage or better to wait next year? Experts believe that today's real estate market situation is the most favorable for the purchase of housing. The lowest mortgage rate is 6.75%, it is subsidized by the developer. Of course, it can be expected that a stock rate will be applied in the coming years - 6%, but now it is profitable to purchase apartments. Today mortgage rates decreased significantly, and banks implement a variety of schemes for buying objects. Even if in 2018 the mortgage will be more profitable, you can refinance the current loan. Buy housing in a mortgage or better accumulate the required amount? Of course, it solves every person alone. If you found a suitable apartment that is completely satisfied with the price, it is worth getting a loan. If there are no optimal offers on the market yet, you can continue to save. True, there is a risk of financial turmoil and loss of savings, as it was in 2014. Those who save, better than half of the savings to translate into currency and put in Sberbank or VTB - cash in the cell.What is more profitable: housing for the Moscow Ring Road or within its limits?
The price tag for housing from the developer turns out to be lower in view of the low demand and impressive volume of square meters introduced. What amount is needed to acquire primary housing?- If proximity to the center is not fundamentally, you can choose a lot of interesting options for the Moscow Ring Road. For example, in New Moscow in the LCD "Spanish quarters" for 6.5 million rubles, three-bedroom apartments are implemented;
- If you are looking for accommodation with a developed infrastructure nearby, one-room apartments are the most affordable budget option. For 5.3 million. You can buy a studio on the Khodynsky field with the Water Park shopping center, schools and children's kindergartens nearby;
- Secondary housing is implemented at a price, which directly depends on the location of the building and the desires of the owner.
Prospects for the development of the real estate market: what to expect?
Is it worth waiting for the prices in Moscow on housing will decrease, and buy apartments will be much more profitable than now? This trend exists, but to build long-term forecasts is problematic. Experts believe that by 2021 prices reached such indicators:- Secondary housing - 100-140 thousand rubles per sq. M.;
- Economy new buildings - 100 thousand;
- Housing segment Comfort - 120-140 thousand;
- Business class - less than 200 thousand.
The phrase "unstable recovery" is best suited for describing the results of 2017 in the Moscow housing market. The segment of new buildings in the "old" Moscow confidently grew throughout the year. However, attentive study of the internal structure of its growth and the situation in other segments and different districts does not yet provide the opportunity to record a confident trend on the restoration of the real estate market in the Moscow region as a whole. The analytical center of Cyan analyzed what indicators of the real estate market increased, which declined, and which practically did not change in 2017.
Market Indicators, demonstrated growth in 2017
Sales rates increased in new buildings, revenues of developers and the average check on the primary market in Moscow in the "old" borders
The record increase in the number of transactions in the metropolitan market of new buildings was provided, first of all, the Comfort LCD in the peripheral areas of Moscow in the "old" borders (+ 37% by the number of transactions, + 44% of the revenue in relation to the same period of 2016 in the municipalities of the capital for MKAD). Optimum in combination of square meter prices, the presence of the subway, the established infrastructure and the capital status determined the highest concentration of transactions in these LCD. Of the top 5 leaders in terms of sales, among all LCD, the capital of 4 facilities are located for the Moscow Ring Road, but within the borders of the city before the expansion of 2012.
In Mitino, Solntsevo, North, Butovo, Nekrasovka due to these integrated buildings ("rays", "Northern", "Meshchersky forest", "Greenada", "Metropolitan Polyany", "Nekrasovka") in the medium term can change not only The appearance of the part of the quarters, but also the structure of the social composition of these municipalities in general.
The average cost of the real estate facility within Moscow increased in 2017. An important contribution to the growth of this indicator has made the restoration of demand in premium facilities (in January-November 2017, 827 lots were implemented in them, 1.5 times more than in the same period of 2016).
The share of transactions in developers leaders and their largest residential complexes increased
Sales in the new buildings under construction in the Moscow region are increasingly concentrated from market leaders (both among developers and in separate LCD). This can reduce the revenue of developers of the projects of the "Second Echelon" projects, which is risks for market recovery. In Moscow, the top 10 developers account for 54% of transactions, in New Moscow 93%, in the Moscow region 62%. A year ago, similar indicators were 51%, 91% and 51%, respectively.
Top 10 Moscow LCD in the old borders concentrate 31% of DDU registrations, in New Moscow 76%, in the Moscow region 28% (similar parameters of 2016 - 27%, 74%, and 24%).
On the 10s-20s, large projects of noticeable developers are in the rating of sales, but the pace of sales in them in absolute expression are low; The rate of implementation of apartments in them will not allow the majority of the buildings of these LCD inside the standard 3-year-old developer cycle, which will lead to the formation of unrealized residues from developers after passing the object.
Rose share of mortgage transactions in all segments of the market and locations
The share of mortgage transactions in the new buildings market in 2017 has steadily increased in all segments and locations. According to the market as a whole, it has grown from 41% in February to 53% in November. In some LCD in the Moscow region, there are more than 2/3 transactions with bank financing (leaders - LCD "Seen Beach", "Two Capitals", "Pyatnitsky Quarters"; in 2017, 79% were registered, 78% and 75% DDD from the total number of registrations).
In Moscow, at the share of mortgage transactions lead the LCD "Leader in Chertanovo" (74%), "Ashnevaya 14" (67%), in New Moscow LCD South Bunino (67%). Among the banks in the Moscow region confidently ahead of Sberbank and VTB (46% and 30% of transactions, respectively), the Bank "Revival" (5% of DDU registration with mortgage) occupies 3rd place.
Property prices increased in the primary market in most locations
In the fall of 2017, the trend was formed on the market. "Prices are growing - discounts grow." The growth of basic prices in the market as a whole is associated with a smaller number of buildings that released this year to the implementation of the pit compared to the past. As a result, the average price of a square meter in Moscow grew by 6% in relation to December 2016, similar growth was recorded in the metropolitan municipalities for the Moscow Ring Road and in New Moscow.
At the same time, discounts began to grow and increase the basic prices of exposure. If in the spring and summer of 2017, the average discount was 4-5% of the price list, then by the end of the autumn, this indicator came close to two-digit values.
The largest developer of the Moscow region company Peak offers buyers New Year's discount in 10%, which has become a reference for other developers. 10% -20% discount in economy and comfort class - indirect evidence of the prematurity of the launch of the process of organic growth in prices by some developers; The buyer is not yet ready to overpay on the treated market, so some of the rapid decisions on price index have to hide the subsequent shares.
The prices of suggestions have increased in the secondary market in the center of Moscow, as well as in the areas of the capital for the Moscow Ring Road (including New Moskva)
Fixing the growth of prices of supply in the secondary market is no more than a statistical exercise. A clear explanation of the price increase in the exposition in the secondary market can be found only in the center of Moscow inside the Garden Ring, where large-scale improvement works were completed by autumn. The fixed rise in prices in other locations and methods of methods is relevant only for the price parameters of the sentence.
An important result of 2017 is a record high magnitude of the amendment. She grew throughout the crisis 2014-2017, making up 9.6% in Moscow by the end of the year, 7.7% in the Moscow region. It is the change in the coefficient of a guidance that will adequately reflect the dynamics of the secondary market in the next few quarters, and not the usual changes in the suggestions.
Rental rates have grown
For 3 recent years (2015, 2016, 2017), tenants have tried to raise prices in August, but in the winter months of the first month of the business season faded and rates were fluidated around the established price levels (29-31 and 40-42 thousand . rub. For ordinary "oddens" and "doubles" in the sleeping areas of Moscow, respectively).
This year, a small increase in rental rates has not exhausted itself to December. For 2-3% rates increased in almost all types of apartments and the zones of the Moscow agglomeration. The requirements of landlords of 2-3-room apartments in prestigious areas increased more stronger, growth in the economy class is expressed weaker.
Market indicators that have decreased in 2017
The number of new projects on the primary market has decreased.
Tightening the requirements of legislation in the winter of 2017 significantly reduced the number of new projects derived in the existing year. For example, in New Moscow in the first 6 months of this year, not a single new LCD started. The concentration of consumer demand in Moscow LCD has reduced the interest of developers to projects in the suburbs.
In the Moscow region in 2017, 2 times less than the new markers were published than in 2016, it brought to parity in terms of the volume of active proposal between the capital and its suburbs (42 thousand lots was brought to the implementation in Moscow, 10 thousand lots in New Moscow and 73 thousand lots in the Moscow region exhibited in December 2017).
Sale and revenue of developers in the Moscow region fell
The increase in the number of transactions in the market of new buildings of Moscow is noted against the background of reducing the interest of buyers to objects in the Moscow region. These processes are partially interrelated, since it is precisely a large-scale development of the metropolitan promsion, the construction of residential complexes on wasteland and reserve areas on the outskirts of Moscow with an attractive ratio of "price / quality of the location" attracted to these locations of those who used to be oriented only on the Moscow region or not at all Considered the script for the purchase of housing, and preferred him to rent it.
This led to the compression of the near Moscow market, expressed both in reducing the number of transactions and in the fall of revenue. It is most stable in the cities of the middle and far near Moscow, the demand for low-rise residential complexes is reduced.
A new offer has decreased in the secondary housing market
In the secondary market, the number of newly declined apartments in the Moscow region as a whole in 2017 decreased by 15% (and in the lease segment of 25-30%). Separate locations (for example, Moscow regions for the Moscow Ring Road) were even stronger (by 24%). This is partly due to the change in the policy of advertisement integrators (placing prices and the quality of moderation increase), which reduces the contribution of non-existent apartments to the amount of supply.
But it has an intravenous substantiation. The long-term trend in the Russian real estate market is becoming a decrease in the attractiveness of apartments in the secondary market compared to new buildings. The reason is not only in more attractive proposals at the price, but also in a noticeable growth in the quality of the product on the primary market against the background of the moral and physical obsolescence of houses and quarters of the Soviet buildings.
Market Indicators remaining almost unchanged 2017
Prices in new new buildings are practically not changed
The rise in prices on the entire market of new buildings occurs primarily due to price increases inside individual buildings with an increase in their construction readiness. In 2017, developers were very neatly approached to indexing prices. In the Moscow region, the rise in prices in the construction process for buildings, where there were more than 10 lots in the exhibition in each of the months, amounted to 8.8% (against the background of a similar indicator in 2016 by 9.4%). Those., Even against the background of improving the macroeconomic conjuncture, the developers fear to increase prices due to the risk of losing the client in conditions of acute competition with other LCD. The lack of organic increase in prices is noticeable when comparing average prices for new projects (the buildings that started this year).
In the peripheral regions of the capital and in 2016 and in 2017, developers took projects for 110-120 thousand rubles. per square. In the Moscow region in December 2016, the square meter in lots in the buildings started in January-December 2016 cost 76.6 thousand rubles, in December 2017 a similar indicator (the cost of the meter in the projects of the current year) - 75.8 thousand roubles. The new projects are less pronounced and variation of prices between the city sectors. Residential complexes in the eastern regions of the capital remain cheaper than Western, but the difference over the past years is reduced. Development of infrastructure projects (ICC, the third transplant contour of the metro, chordan highways), the development of Promon levels many years of differences in the prestigiousness of the Western and Eastern regions of Moscow.
The amount of active offer on the primary market is stable
Despite the reduction in the volume of the new supply, the number of lots, which are in active implementation (unique apartments in the price list of developers and agencies) has practically not changed throughout the year. This is due to the large number of apartments and apartments located in developers in reserve. Some of these volumes are gradually introduced to the market, which keeps its volume in the range of 125-130 thousand lots throughout the year. As with all recent years, the market marks the risk of overhang.
The existing amount of active offer and reserves can go from the market at the current sales pace for 30 months in Moscow in the old borders, for 11 months in New Moscow, for 20 months in the Moscow region. Although the specified deadlines are higher (for 3-4 months for each submarine) than at the beginning of the year, but they still fit into the scenario of the sustainable market development, since they do not exceed the level-sensitive level at 36 months (the average life cycle of the developer project).
The average Lot area on the primary market has ceased to decline
Reducing the middle area of \u200b\u200bthe apartment (both in the proposal of developers and actually sold) accompanied the last 3 years of market development in a crisis. The desire to increase the share of more liquid studios and one-room apartments to attract new buyers to the market made the average metrarh of lots in new buildings less than in Soviet panel houses. The housings, fully consisting of lots with the minimum possible squares, can be potential sources of formation of a socially disadvantaged environment in the medium term.
In the outgoing year, the average attendance of apartments have practically not changed, which can already be considered a positive indicator. Market participants were able to realize more full-fledged apartments this year than in 2014-2016. The decision to subsidize the mortgage rate for families with 2 or more children in 2018 may further increase the demand for 2-3 bedroom apartments.
In Russia, it is planned to transition to a new scheme for the acquisition of the housing under construction - instead of equity construction will come project financing. RBC Real Estate explains what a new scheme differs from sales on DD
Russian President Vladimir Putin Before December 15 of this year, measures on the phased substitution of shared construction by bank lending and other sources of financing. The transition to the project financing scheme of developers of housing, which should minimize the risk of citizens, will take three years.
This means that in the future, developers will not be able to attract the funds to finance construction. A similar practice of limited participation of individuals in housing construction is valid in many foreign countries and involves financing the construction at the expense of banks.
The main goal of innovations is to solve the problem of deceived shareholders. "Citizens will not risk their own funds, but to acquire already built housing, which can immediately be issued. But at the same time, it is necessary to make the price per square meter become excellent, and the banks were ready to give loans under gentle interest, "so in the RBC Real Estate Comments explained the need to change the head of the Ministry of Construction of Russia Mikhail Men.
The editorial office of RBC Real Estate figured out which risks for buyers of new buildings will remove a new financing scheme and how it will affect the housing market in Russia.
Alternative to shared construction
At the moment, about 80% of new buildings in Russia are implemented through the conclusion of shared construction contracts (DD). This scheme suggests that the construction of housing is carried out on the means of degrees - individuals who, in fact, share all risks with the developer.
Today there are three sources of financing of any construction project: the means of shareholders, banking (project) financing and its own means of developers. "The producer's own funds range from 20% to 40% of the total amount of capital investments, which are required for the construction of [separate residential complex], the means of shareholders are about 50%. The rest is borrowed funds from credit institutions (project financing, no more than 50%), "said Marina Lyubalogov, Deputy General Director of the Croste Concern. But in practice, the developer chooses no more than 30% of the dedicated credit limit on the project, and the sales of future meters on DDA will start from the start of construction, complements the partner of the international consulting company Colliers International Vladimir Sergunin.
Project financing, which is planned to be fully planned after three years, assumes that the construction will be more funded to the bank. At the same time, specific schemes and conditions for the interaction of banks, developers and buyers of new buildings have not yet been voiced. In developed real estate markets (see Crees below), under this scheme, the Bank invests in the implementation of residential projects, which are advised by debt obligations, and the return of the credit institution does not occur at the expense of developer's assets, but at the expense of cash flows formed by the new project. In other words, the construction of the house is carried out on the money of the bank. At the same time, project financing does not mean lending: project financing rates can be much lower than on current loans for builders.
"The new scheme will take the risk for citizens to lose their investments in the housing under construction, without receiving an apartment as a result. For developers, the mechanism of attracting funds for construction will be simplified (instead of numerous individuals it will be one or two banks and a limited number of professional investors). In addition, the risks of the inconsistency of the volume of attracted financing by the stages of construction will be removed - funding will be carried out within the approved volume as needed, "said Mikhail Men.
The banking financing scheme reduces the risks and for the state - minimizes the "probability of the emergence of budget support of the industry," the minister added. This means that at home in case of non-fulfillment of obligations, builders will be worthwhile at the expense of the state budget, but on the money of banks that financed the project, or insurance companies.
How will go to the new scheme
The first stage of the transition from equity construction to project financing was the emergence of the Protection Rights Fund, in the Ministry of Economy. The second stage will be the entry into force on July 1, 2018, the norms of 218-FZ, which implies changes to legislation on equity construction. Also, at this stage, it is planned to create a unified system for monitoring equity construction in the regions.
At the next stage as a whole, it will be evaluated how banks will be to finance the construction of housing. "If in this area it justifies itself, then in the future, taking into account the competent risk assessment and reducing the cost of credit resources, it will enable the phased substitution of equity construction for project financing, taking into account the availability of housing," RBC real estate told Mikhail Men .
The head of the Minister noted that the investments of individuals in housing construction make up about 3.5 trillion rubles. at this moment. "First of all, we must receive an answer from the banking sector: for what time and at what price of money banks will be able to replace these 3.5 trillion rubles. Is such a financing by the banking system? And if so, for what period? It is necessary to calculate before switching to a more civilized relation when the construction of housing is financed by non-citizens, but by banks, "the head of the minister commented.
Shared construction in Russia
Today, about 80% of the housing erected in Russia is funded at the expense of participants in equity construction - 214-ФЗ. About 1.1 million existing DDUs are registered throughout the country for the third quarter of 2017. According to the Bank of Russia, the debt of citizens in the mortgage taken secured by DDU, is about 1 trillion rubles, and taking into account the funds of the first contribution this amount increases to 1.5 trillion rubles.
Another 20% is mainly the implementation of apartments in finished houses on preliminary sales contracts, the issuance of housing certificates (extremely rare) or the scheme of housing and construction cooperatives, which have not yet managed to completely go from the market.
Fears of developers
In general, the developers and real estate surveyed by the editorial board "RBC Real Estate" agree with the position of the authorities that project financing will remove all risks for buyers and the state in terms of the emergence of new deceived shareholders. At the same time, some real estate market players that the transition to a new scheme will increase the cost of housing, including due to expensive loans for developers.
Special difficulties and obstacles to the transition to project financing does not see the President of the Fundamental Civil Code and the former head of the Morton, Alexander Ruch. According to him, today the market for such a scheme works, and quite successfully - without the rise in price of construction and rising prices. "We, for example, we implement a project in the Moscow region with the involvement of project financing of Sberbank of Russia. Yes, while attracting money for real estates, but they do not have the impact on the financing of the construction, and we are not dependent on them, "says streams. In his opinion, small companies that do not have the stock of sustainability will lose the opportunity to attract money from banks and may come from the market.
Theoretically, share financing can be replaced by the project, Marina Lubelskaya believes, but notes a condition: an effective rate of such project financing should be equal to the size of inflation plus a fair remuneration. Thus, if inflation is 4% per annum, then with the remuneration for risk, the final rate should be not more than 8%. "This rate will allow, retaining the current level of prices on the market for end users, replace a significant share of projects with the involvement of real estate funds with project financing without loss for the margin of the developer," she explains.
In order to avoid rising prices, according to Natalia Shatalina, it is necessary to launch the project funding for project financing program, within which the developers will be able to receive loans at more affordable rates. The main reasons for the possible increase in housing prices Natalya Shatalina calls the absence of the ability to purchase erected objects at more affordable prices - for example, at the initial stage of construction, you can buy an apartment by 25-30% cheaper than in the finished house. If we consider only ready-made homes, you can assume the rise in price up to 10% based on existing loan rates for developers, it predicts.
At the same time, according to the head to work with the key partners of the EST-A-TET Roman Rodionsev, a sharp jump in prices is not exactly expected in the event of a refusal of equity construction, nor for any reason. The expert explains that quarterly on the capital market comes a large amount of new proposal at low prices, which holds back the total level of value of the proposal in new buildings. "Even if new projects have already come out with project financing, the market will remain at the market of housing, implemented under shared contracts. For the implementation of only those 3.4 million square meters. The housing, which are now offered in new buildings, will need at least four years at the current pace of sales, "the Rodionov will summarize.
In the future, an individual approach to determining the interest rate will probably continue, since all projects have different attractiveness and different risks, predicted in the press service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. A professional developer will be beneficial to work on the project financing model, because the mechanism of attracting funds for construction both procedurally and in terms of the guaranteed inflow of funds for construction from an investor is considered in the construction ministry.
How to sell housing abroad
In Western Europe, project financing is used as a basic scheme for attracting funds for construction. The construction of housing is conducted on borrowed funds, and the money of buyers come to special equation accounts of banks, which are revealed only after entering the facilities, and only then the developer receives a profit.
In Germany, there are construction savings in Germany - the future real estate buyer first invests cash in savings cash registers, and in a few years a housing loan can be issued to acquire housing. Funds from the accounts of savings cash desks can be directed exclusively for the construction of houses.
In the UK, residential real estate is sold under the following principle: during the construction cycle, the developer itself finances the construction and can afford to take a prepayment of up to 5% per apartment, the rest - the own and borrowed funds of the Developer or Investor. It receives full payment when entering the object into operation, and in most cases objects are rented with trim. The cost of project financing for developers does not exceed 5-6%, and the cost of mortgage loans is 1.5-3%.
In Israel, the share financing scheme is distributed in time: 10% of the cost of the apartment, the priceer gives at the stage of issuing permits for construction, the following part - at the time of the exit of the object from the Earth, the remaining part - upon completion of all works. That is, payment of the shareholder is tied to the construction readiness of the object.