Ecology and the future of the planet. Is there a theory that humanity already existed to the same degree of modernity as we do, but disappeared due to the apocalypse? Humanity has profoundly changed nature, but this may only be the beginning

Most science fiction writers and futurists see the future of humanity in rather dark colors, and not without reason. Our attitude towards the environment leaves much to be desired, we use technology too thoughtlessly and we are increasingly improving in self-destruction. However, there are also optimists who find the distant future amazing and wonderful. Here you will find six of the most optimistic forecasts for the development prospects of our civilization.

1. Status quo

In the 1990s, the American political scientist, economist and writer Francis Fukuyama wrote the books The End of History and the Last Man and The End of Order. He argued that the political, technological and economic state of our planet testified that humanity was approaching the final stop of its journey. He was wrong, of course. These books were simply grim reactions to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the talk of the so-called New World Order.

A somewhat more realistic assessment of the current state of affairs was formulated by Bill Joy, co-founder of the American software and hardware company Sun Microsystems. In his 2004 article “Why the future does not need us,” he wrote about the catastrophic consequences that the development of such technologies of the 21st century as robotics, genetic engineering and nanotechnology can lead to. Joy believes that the most reasonable thing that humanity can do today is to use what is already there. Only in this way can it prolong its existence on the planet.

2. Green planet

The distant future is often seen as a kind of "Cybertron", chained in steel from edge to edge. This is the worst nightmare of the "green", where technology and thoughtless use of natural resources have taken over all living things. But who said that everything should be this way? The future of our planet may well turn out to be much more prosperous than we can imagine. Representatives of "green" futurism believe that we can use high technology in order to cleanse the Earth, create new sources of energy and even transform the planet itself.

The very first idea in this series was introduced by Bruce Sterling's Green Design movement. This movement advocates the use of innovative technologies to solve environmental problems. Sterling predicts the planet's future will be far more ecologically diverse than at any other time in history.

In such a future, a person himself will change a lot - to live in complete harmony with the world around him. He will receive all our energy from the sources of the Earth itself and the Sun. Having thoroughly studied terrestrial ecosystems, humanity will change them too - for example, put an end to all predation and suffering of animals. And he will manage the weather as he sees fit.

And, in the end, we will learn to prevent all kinds of natural disasters: falling asteroids, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions ...

3. Life surrounded by "machines of grace and love"

Unfortunately, it is likely that the age of technological euphoria will soon be over. Thirty years from now, radically improved machines with their own intelligence may get out of our control and then we will definitely not be in good shape. But, on the other hand, the power that can destroy us may turn out to be salutary for humanity, as the members of the Singularity movement believe.

If future inventors of artificial intelligence set the right goals for themselves, Singularity believes, the next generations will live among so-called “friendly robots” programmed to be unable to harm humans. Moreover, the machines will make sure that nothing bad happens to us and protect us from all possible dangers. Paradise, where artificial intelligence provides us with a happy future, is dedicated to a whole poem by Richard Brautigan called "The machines of grace and love are watching everything" and the British film of the same name.

4. There, where no one has ever been ...

It is high time to break away from our little ball and start colonizing other solar systems - some futurologists are sure. Not only our salvation depends on this (the idea that it is impossible to store all eggs in one basket), it is inherent in our very nature - to develop, move on and conquer all new horizons.

Even now, our still timid attempts in space exploration bring us a lot of benefits - technologies using satellites and some breakthroughs in science.

What kind of colonization could it be? Perhaps it will be something like a von Neumann probe - a self-replicating spacecraft that will fly into a neighboring star system, where it will extract minerals for us and create their exact copies, which, in turn, will go to other star systems from the same purpose.

Until now, in our Galaxy, interstellar travelers have not been seen, in connection with which the so-called "Fermi Paradox" has arisen, which can be formulated as follows: "The combination of the widespread belief that there are a significant number of technologically advanced civilizations in the Universe, with the absence of which "Any observation that would confirm it is paradoxical and leads to the conclusion that either our understanding of nature or our observations are incomplete and erroneous."

So, it is quite possible that we will be the first and only civilization with colonial ambitions in the Galaxy.

5. Interior space

Another alternative idea is that an ideal and cloudless existence can be achieved by overloading your consciousness into giant supercomputers. Computers of enormous computational power - like a megastructure called the "matryoshka brain" proposed by Robert Bradbury, will use the entire energy potential of the planet to power a computer system.

Or civilization will find a way to build the so-called "Dyson Sphere", which is a relatively thin spherical shell with a star in the center. Thus, two global problems will be solved at once - living space and energy, which can be obtained in abundance from the central star.

6. Eternal bliss

British philosopher David Pearce, in his "Hedonistic Imperative", formulated the idea of \u200b\u200bbuilding a paradise on Earth, which consists in creating a biological program that will get rid of all types of cruelty, suffering and ailment.

A person's emotional life will have to be regulated with the help of special synthetic drugs (but not drugs) that regulate mood. And in the long term, the genome of all vertebrates should be rewritten so that there is no more suffering in the animal world.

What our future will actually turn out to be - no one knows. One thing is clear - there are a huge number of options for its development, more than we can even imagine today.

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Of course, there are no scientific theories on this score, but there are many circumstantial ones. For example, there is a theory that in ancient times atomic weapons were used on the territory of the Earth, and this is particularly mentioned in the Indian epic "Mahabharata". This ancient Indian work refers to the "war of the gods" in which the gods use divine weapons. Here is one of the episodes of the epic:

"A huge and spewing streams of flame", "rushing at a frantic speed, enveloped in lightning", "the explosion from it was as bright as 10 thousand suns at its zenith", "the flame, devoid of smoke, spread in all directions."

Designed to kill the entire people ", it turned people to dust, while those who survived fell out nails and hair. Even food became unusable. This weapon struck entire countries and peoples for several generations:

"A lightning strike, like a giant messenger of death, burned people. Those who threw themselves into the river managed to survive, but lost their hair and nails ..."; "... several years after that the Sun, stars and sky are hidden by clouds and bad weather"

Allegedly, there are hints of radiation and atomic winter. But moreover, some enthusiasts want to confirm their theory by the fact that large areas of melted glass - tektites - were found in India. And such a material can only form under the influence of an enormous temperature. And such versions began to appear after the tests of the atomic bomb in New Mexico, when tektites, pieces of green molten glass, were discovered there after the explosion. Here is such a theory. In general, if you delve into this epic, you can find descriptions of other "weapons of the gods". Also, to top this theory, they often cite the fact that Oppenheimer, the creator of atomic weapons, after the test, also quoted an excerpt from the ancient Indian epic: “I am death, the great destroyer of worlds, bringing death to all living things”

I will share my modest find: "

Supporters of YAO say that the Mahabharata describes the death of Mahenjo-Daro. Explosions that were brighter than a thousand suns, from which trees are set on fire, and after these explosions, people who survived lose their hair and nails ... But there is simply NO such information in the "Mahabharata". NOT! The reference to "Mahabharata" is intended for a simple and not so common man, because it contains more than 1.8 million words. Like, try to check and find who doubts that there is no such thing. However, they checked - there really is no such thing.

The origin of these lines (loss of hair and nails, as well as explosions of thousands of suns) comes from the French book "The Morning of the Magicians", published in 1960. As for the Mahabharata, regarding "brighter than a thousand suns" - this is a description of Vishnu, whose appearance was like the shining of a thousand suns. He has always been described so poetically. As for the loss of hair and nails, the "Mahabharata" described it as a bad omen when rats multiplied in the city and began to eat the hair and nails of sleeping people. "

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Humanity has lived on planet Earth for only a few millennia. The earliest appearance of human settlement appeared about 6-8 thousand years ago. This is a huge period for human development, but if you look at the scale of the entire planet, it is only a short moment.

The age of our Earth is 4.54 billion years. What is 8 thousand of human existence for her? But our fate is closely related to the climate and state of the planet. Already, scientists are noticing changes, and this makes us think about the future. Of course, it is impossible to say exactly what will happen to the planet in millions of years. But with modern technology, one can assume!

A netizen WannaWanga has compiled a brief chronicle of Earth's distant future. Of course, these are only scientific predictions, because, unfortunately, we cannot verify them!

10 thousand years

The threat of global warming has long faced scientists from all over the world. If the Wilkes' largest subglacial basin melts, it will endanger the East Antarctic ice sheet. The sea level will rise by 3-4 meters, and this will lead to serious consequences.

However, the Australian theoretical physicist Brandon Carter suggested that in the next 10 thousand years, humanity will disappear from the face of the Earth. It cannot be said with certainty that it will be so. But if people stay on the planet, then after 10,000 years there will be no regional genetic differences between them.

13 thousand years

Due to the process of precession of the earth's axis, the tilt of the earth will become even greater. This means that the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere will get even more pronounced seasonal fluctuations. The difference between winter and summer will become even more extreme.

15 thousand years

There is a theory of the Saharan pump, according to which, due to the precession of the Earth's poles, the North African monsoon will go north. The Sahara Desert will once again have a tropical climate, as it did about 5-10,000 years ago.

20 thousand years

Everyone knows about the Chernobyl disaster that happened in 1986. The exclusion zone due to the accident was 2600 sq. km, and people cannot live on this territory. Only after 20,000 years, this area will become completely safe for living.

36 thousand years

The small red dwarf Ross 248 will become the closest star from the Sun at this time. The minimum distance between them will be 3.02 light years. The convergence of the Sun and Ross 248 will last about 8 thousand years, then the nearest star will be Proxima Centauri.

50 thousand years

Niagara Falls over the years will destroy the last 32 km of obstacles remaining to Lake Erie. Thus, it will cease to exist. According to scientists, the interglacial period ends and, despite global warming, the Earth will return to the ice age. During this time, many of the glacial lakes of the Canadian shield will be obliterated by glacier recovery and erosion.

100 thousand years

A hypergiant in the constellation Canis Major VY Canis Majoris exploded into a supernova. The movement of stars along the Milky Way will make many constellations unrecognizable. On Earth, meanwhile, a supervolcanic eruption will occur, during which 400 cubic kilometers of magma will erupt. For comparison, this volume is approximately equal to Lake Erie.

200 thousand years

Due to the movement of celestial bodies through space, the constellations familiar to us will cease to exist. There will be no more Big Dipper, Orion or Perseus. The young underwater volcano Loihi near Hawaii will become an island and rise above the water. Now it is hidden under water at a distance of 975 m from the surface.

300 thousand years

By this time, the Wolf-Rayet star from the binary star system WR 104 will explode into a supernova. Scientists speculate that this explosion could trigger a gamma-ray burst that will destroy a quarter of the Earth's atmospheric layer. Accordingly, all living things will also be destroyed. This will happen if the Wolf-Rayet poles are aligned 12 degrees or less with the Earth.

500 thousand years

The earth during this period is most likely struck by an asteroid 1 kilometer in diameter. The nuclear fuel spent in today's reactors will finally become safe. The global ice age process will be postponed until all fossil fuels are exhausted.

1 million years

The earth has undergone a supervolcanic eruption that will erupt 3200 sq. km of lava. It is comparable to the eruption of the Toba volcano, which took place 75 thousand years ago from our days. Red supergiant Betelzeise will explode into a supernova. The glasses created today will finally shatter. Everything created by man will perish, except for such massive structures as the pyramids of Giza.

2 million years

During this time, ecosystems of coral reefs will be restored from anthropogenic acidification of the ocean. The restoration of marine ecosystems, which took place 65 million years ago, took about the same time. The Grand Canyon will collapse and form a wide valley around the Colorado River.

10 million years

The East African Rift Valley will be completely submerged by the Red Sea. The new oceanic basin will divide the African continent into the Nubian and Somali valleys. Most modern species of living things will become extinct, but others will transform into new species.

50 million years

During this period, Phobos, the artificial moon of Mars, will collide with the red planet. Christopher Scotes argues that the movement of the San Andreas Fault will result in the confluence of the Los Angeles and San Francisco locations. The collision of Africa and Eurasia will close the Mediterranean basin and create a Himalayan-like mountain range. The tops of the Appalachian mountains will collapse.

100 million years

This term is the maximum life span of Saturn's rings. Earth will be hit by an asteroid comparable to the one that caused the extinction 66 million years ago.

250 million years

All continents of the Earth will merge into a supercontinent. Three possible locations for this formation are named Amasia, Novopangia or Pangia Ultima. Due to the movement to the north, the west coast of North America and the coast of California will collide with Alaska. The solar system will make a whole revolution around the Milky Way.

600 million years

The rising luminosity of the Sun leads to the fact that the carbonate-silicate cycle is disrupted. Surface rocks will be weathered, and carbon dioxide will be absorbed by the earth as carbonate. Carbon dioxide levels will drop to the point where photosynthesis is impossible. Forests will not be able to survive, causing mass extinction of vegetation on Earth. The moon will move so far from Earth that a total solar eclipse will be impossible.

800 million years

Carbon dioxide levels will drop, and photosynthesis will be impossible. Free oxygen and ozone will disappear from the atmosphere and lethal ultraviolet light reaches the surface. Some animals may survive in the oceans. But due to a decrease in the level of oxygen in the water, almost all multicellular creatures will die out. The only life on the planet is single-celled bacteria.

1 billion years

The luminosity of the Sun has risen by 10%, because of this, the Earth's temperature has reached an average of 47 degrees. The planet will become a greenhouse and the oceans will evaporate. In some places, pockets of water with life will remain, for example, at the poles or high points. 1.3 billion - eukaryotic life on Earth will die out, only prokaryotes will remain.

2 billion years

The outer core of the Earth freezes, while the inner continues to grow at a rate of 1 mm per year. Without a liquid outer core, the Earth's magnetic field will shut off, and particles emanating from the Sun will deplete the atmosphere. The planet's temperature will reach 149 degrees Celsius, all life will completely disappear.

3 billion years

There is roughly 1 in 100,000 chances that the Earth will be thrown into interstellar space, and 1 in 3 million that it will be captured by another star. If this happened, life could go on on the planet much longer.

4 billion years

The Andromeda Galaxy will collide with the Milky Way and merge together. This median point will be called Milcomede. The planets of the solar system are expected to remain unchanged as a result of the collision.

5 billion years

The hydrogen at the base of the Sun will exhaust itself, and the star will begin to evolve into a red giant.

7 billion years

Earth and Mars will be trapped by the expansion of the Sun into a supergiant. The Earth and the Moon will most likely be absorbed by the Sun, because its maximum radius will exceed the current 256 times. Before the collision, the Earth's atmosphere will be completely lost, the surface will consist of a lava ocean with a temperature of 2130 degrees Celsius. Saturn's moon Titan, which is very similar to Earth, will receive the required temperature for life to arise. When the Sun becomes a supergiant, Mercury, Venus, and possibly Earth and Mars will be destroyed.

8 billion years

The sun will become a carbon-oxygen white dwarf about 54% of its current size. If the Earth suddenly survives, which is unlikely, soon the temperature on it and other planets will begin to drop rapidly. A white dwarf sun will emit much less energy than it does now.

14 billion years

The sun becomes a black dwarf. Its temperature and luminosity drop, making it invisible to human eyes. Of course, people no longer exist at that time ...

22 billion years

In the Big Rip scenario, the end of the universe will occur. Clusters of galaxies will be destroyed 20 million years before the end. For 60 million years, galaxies will lose stars at the edges, and completely disintegrate in 40 million years. Three months before the rupture, the systems will become gravitationally unbound. 30 minutes before the end, all objects will evaporate into atoms, and in 10 seconds the atoms will fall apart. The universe will enter the singularity gap and the distances will be said to be infinitely large.

50 billion years

If it happens that the Earth and the Moon are not absorbed by the Sun, then by this time they will be in order. The Earth's rotation will accelerate, and the lunar orbit will disintegrate due to the tidal action of the Sun's white dwarf.

100 billion years

The expansion process of the universe will cause all galaxies outside the former Milky Way to disappear beyond the horizon of cosmic light.

1 trillion years

After the expansion of the Universe, the Great Compression phase will begin. Depending on the length of the expansion phase, the events of the contraction phase will occur in reverse order. Superclusters of galaxies will first merge, then there will be clusters of galaxies, then the galaxies themselves. The temperature of the cosmic background will reach 100,000 degrees Celsius, due to which the stars will no longer be able to eject their heat.

A few minutes before the Big Compression, atomic nuclei will decay and be sucked in by black holes. All black holes unite into one, which will absorb all matter in the universe and later the universe itself. After that, a new Big Bang and the emergence of a new universe are possible. This theory has not yet been proven by the properties of dark matter.

100 trillion years

New stars will form in the galaxies. This marks the transition from the Primitive era to the Age of degenerates. The lack of free hydrogen will prevent new stars from forming, and the rest will exhaust their fuel and die in 110-120 trillion years. Collisions between stellar remnants will create supernovae.

10 10 50 years

There is the possibility of the emergence of the Boltzmann brain - a hypothetical object that may have a mind. It can arise in the course of fluctuations in any system. Without delving into the terms, the brain of the universe may appear, named after Louis Boltzmann.

Of course, humanity cannot verify the probability of all these events. Judging by these calculations, we will no longer exist on the planet in the next 10 thousand years.

Our planet has never been subjected to such a destructive impact of human activities on the planet's ecosystem as in recent decades. A person was faced with a choice - to go forward and face the abyss that he himself created or to stop and change his attitude to nature, to the resources that he consumes and without which he cannot live. The future of not only ours, but also of our children depends on this choice. Will man be able to create a future without global cataclysms? Will he be able to stop the impending threat and not be so vulnerable to the power of nature?

Scientists believe that only forecasting human activities can prevent the threat looming over humanity. It is necessary to find a way by which human needs will be satisfied to the maximum and exclude the violation of ecological processes.

One of the first models of the economic development of society, taking into account factors - population size and environmental pollution, was created by the American scientist F. Forester. He had followers who created new models of economic development based on his method. By the end of the last century, about 15 exemplary models were created. Thus, Italian scientists under the leadership of D. Meadows suggested that if humanity on the planet maintains the rates of production and consumption that were achieved by the end of the 20th century, then humanity is in danger of death. These conclusions are based on calculations of the rates of economic development and population growth at the end of the last century. Scientists urge to reduce or even bring to zero the rates of economic development and the world's population. Of course, this is a utopian proposal that leads away from reality.

Today there are automated systems for computer forecasting of the impact of human activities on the environment, which consider the problem from the point of view of ecology, economics, sociology, cultural studies, and other sciences. Possible options for the development of mankind at the international level are considered, because the problems of the ecological influence of mankind on nature have become global. So, for example, the study of migration processes and territorial behavior, the influence of anthropogenic factors on the ecosystem, the problem of the exploitation of natural resources and the needs of mankind ... It is possible to predict and solve such issues only integratively, i.e. using an integrated scientific approach.

Despite the fact that this approach of forecasting the development of mankind has received recognition relatively recently, we can already talk about its achievements. Firstly, thanks to information technologies, the global problems of mankind have attracted the attention of modern society, have become universal. In the UN appeals it is noted that the governments of states, making decisions that entail problems of environmental safety, must think globally and predict the consequences of local events. Secondly, international organizations for environmental protection have been created - the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), which maintains the "Red Book", dealing with the protection of rare species of animals and plants; The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the main areas of activity are the protection of human health, the protection of the oceans and soil resources of the planet; UNESCO, one of the activities of which is the management of environmental programs covering more than 100 states, contributes to the spread of environmental education in the world; The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which ensures the planet's nuclear safety, establishes nuclear safety standards, etc. Of course, there are other international programs that are aimed at addressing the issues of human impact on the environment. It is difficult to overestimate the contribution of international programs on nature conservation. At the same time, we must not forget that if every person, living on the planet, remembers that nature is our common home, the source of life, we must keep it, protect it from pollution and destruction, then nature will respond. By changing your view of the world around you, instilling a humane attitude towards nature to your children, the danger of an ecological catastrophe and man-made influence will decrease. We will live in a world of harmony and prosperity.